Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd stock HK$4.68, price HK$1.87, upside +150.3%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.9438 – HK$2.29 · fair‑value band HK$2.96 – HK$7.24 · the HK$1.87 price screens below the HK$4.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 14, 2026.
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Vanke Overseas Investment Holding Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the asset management, property development, and property investment in Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
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It also offers serviced apartments and hotel, property redevelopment, administrative, and investment advisory services. The company was formerly known as Vanke Property (Overseas) Limited and changed its name to Vanke Overseas Investment Holding Company Limited in December 2019.
The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Vanke Overseas Investment Holding Company Limited is a subsidiary of Wkland Investments Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036) currently trades at HK$1.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.68, implying the stock looks roughly 60% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$15.29 per share, and 9 of the 10 models we run sit above the HK$1.87 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.36, and 1 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.96 (bear) to HK$7.24 (bull), the price of HK$1.87 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2007: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2007.
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd reported revenue of HK$607M in FY2025 versus HK$461M in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$92.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$728M (≈ $92.8M) Micro · P/E ratio 18.7 · P/S ratio 1.40 · Dividend yield 10.7% · Net margin −15.2% · Return on equity 1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 13.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at 150%, 1036 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$2.96Fair Value HK$4.68BullHK$7.24
Price HK$1.87 · Upside +150.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2007: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2007.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
55.2% (2019) → −1.5% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
Compare Vanke Property Overseas Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 476 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+150.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Return on assets−2.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)13.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−5.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)10.7% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.68 versus a price of HK$1.87, about +150% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1036?
Our model-based fair value for Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is HK$4.68 (as of Nov 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.87.
What is the quality score of 1036?
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.68 (as of Nov 14, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.96, optimistic scenario HK$7.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vanke Property Overseas Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.68, about +150% upside versus a price of HK$1.87 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.96, optimistic scenario HK$7.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$522M (latest available figure, as of Nov 14, 2026).
Does Vanke Property Overseas Ltd pay a dividend?
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 10.70% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 14, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd pays a dividend of HK$0.2 per share a year, a dividend yield of 10.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 23, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2002. Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.01 times. Our assessment: Cash covered. The dividend is fully funded by free cash flow. The payout ratio on earnings is not available for this company.
What growth is priced into Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
Today's price is already fair in a discounted-cash-flow model if free cash flow at Vanke Property Overseas Ltd shrinks by more than 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew 5.1 % per year. As of Nov 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1036 use?
Our models discount Vanke Property Overseas Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vanke Property Overseas Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vanke Property Overseas Ltd grew 5.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of less than minus 40 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 42.91 %: that much free cash flow Vanke Property Overseas Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vanke Property Overseas Ltd it is HK$4.68 per share (as of Nov 14, 2026), against a price of HK$1.87. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Vanke Property Overseas Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 1036 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.87, fair value HK$4.68, a gap of about +150% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1036?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.68). For Vanke Property Overseas Ltd the two are HK$2.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vanke Property Overseas Ltd worth?
The market values Vanke Property Overseas Ltd at about HK$728M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 14, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.87; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1036?
Our models span a range for Vanke Property Overseas Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.96, base HK$4.68, optimistic HK$7.24 per share (as of Nov 14, 2026, price HK$1.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1036?
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 (as of Nov 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$4.68 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2023), reported earnings: 11.4. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 0.2, P/S 1.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 1036?
The PEG ratio of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is 2.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 14, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (as of Nov 14, 2026): return on equity 1.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1036 from its 52-week high?
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd trades at HK$1.87, about 6% below its 52-week high of HK$1.98 and 26% above the low of HK$1.48 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vanke Property Overseas Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vanke Property Overseas Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 14, 2026: price HK$1.87, calculated fair value HK$4.68 (+150%), Quality Score 63/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1036 calculated?
We run Vanke Property Overseas Ltd through 10 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$4.68 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1% above its aggregate fair value. Vanke Property Overseas Ltd currently trades 60% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was HK$1.87. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.68, about +150% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vanke Property Overseas Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.96). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$2.96 to HK$7.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The market capitalisation of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is HK$728M (≈ $92.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is 1.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The dividend yield of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is 10.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The net margin of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is −15.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The operating margin of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
Revenue at Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is down 5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
Earnings per share at Vanke Property Overseas Ltd are down 96.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036) hold?
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$668M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 14, 2026