Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd HK$0.13, price HK$0.05, upside +145.9%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0330 – HK$0.3950 · fair‑value band HK$0.0950 – HK$0.1868 · the HK$0.0540 price screens below the HK$0.1328 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Changyou International Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the digital points business in the People's Republic of China.
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Changyou International Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the digital points business in the People's Republic of China. The company operates an electronic trading platform to promote and facilitate awards earned by customers of loyalty programs of other companies to be exchanged in the form of virtual assets and credits for the consumption of merchandises, games, services, and other commercial transactions, as well as other trading services. It also provides blockchain technology research and development services. The company was formerly known as Changyou Alliance Group Limited and changed its name to Changyou International Group Limited in November 2024. Changyou International Group Limited was founded in 2001 and is based in Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039) currently trades at HK$0.0540, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1328, implying the stock looks roughly 59.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.2100 per share, and 7 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$0.0540 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.0600, and 0 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0950 (bear) to HK$0.1868 (bull), the price of HK$0.0540 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Changyou Alliance Group Ltd reported revenue of 192M CNY in FY2025 versus 114M CNY in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was −16.1M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$97.8M (≈ $12.5M) · P/S ratio 0.47 · Net margin −8.4% · Return on equity −711% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.1% · Operating margin 3.2% · Revenue (TTM) 192M CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) +29.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 146%, 1039 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0950Fair Value HK$0.1328Bull HK$0.1868
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.21/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−76.5% (2019) → −1.3% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.3% a year for the price.
Compare Changyou Alliance Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 103 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside+145.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets3.5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−8.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth29.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.80× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Changyou Alliance Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1039
Frequently asked questions
Is Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1328 versus a price of HK$0.0540, about +146% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1039?
Our model-based fair value for Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is HK$0.1328 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0540.
What is the quality score of 1039?
Changyou Alliance Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1328 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0950, optimistic scenario HK$0.1868. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Changyou Alliance Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1328, about +146% upside versus a price of HK$0.0540 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0950, optimistic scenario HK$0.1868. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
Changyou Alliance Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 192M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Changyou Alliance Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -7.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1039 use?
Our models discount Changyou Alliance Group Ltd at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Changyou Alliance Group Ltd that is -7.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Changyou Alliance Group Ltd grew -6.5 % a year. The price currently implies -7.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (-7.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 37.09 %: that much free cash flow Changyou Alliance Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Changyou Alliance Group Ltd it is HK$0.1328 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0540. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Changyou Alliance Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1039 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0540, fair value HK$0.1328, a gap of about +146% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1039?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0540); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1328). For Changyou Alliance Group Ltd the two are HK$0.0788 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Changyou Alliance Group Ltd worth?
The market values Changyou Alliance Group Ltd at about HK$97.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0540; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1328 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1039?
Our models span a range for Changyou Alliance Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0950, base HK$0.1328, optimistic HK$0.1868 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.0540). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
Balance-sheet figures for Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): debt of 0.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1039 from its 52-week high?
Changyou Alliance Group Ltd trades at HK$0.0540, about 21% below its 52-week high of HK$0.0680 and 50% above the low of HK$0.0360 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1328 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Changyou Alliance Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Changyou Alliance Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.0540, calculated fair value HK$0.1328 (+146%), Quality Score 64/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1039 calculated?
We run Changyou Alliance Group Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1328, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Changyou Alliance Group Ltd currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.0540. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1328, about +146% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Changyou Alliance Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.0950). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.0950 to HK$0.1868) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
The market capitalisation of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is HK$97.8M (≈ $12.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is 0.47 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
The net margin of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is −8.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is −711% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is −13.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
The operating margin of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
Revenue at Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is growing +29.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039) carry?
The net debt of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is 142M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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