Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd stock HK$0.13, price HK$0.05, upside +163.1%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0330 – HK$0.3950 · fair‑value band HK$0.0926 – HK$0.1862 · the HK$0.0510 price screens below the HK$0.1342 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.
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Changyou International Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the digital points business in the People's Republic of China.
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The company operates an electronic trading platform to promote and facilitate awards earned by customers of loyalty programs of other companies to be exchanged in the form of virtual assets and credits for the consumption of merchandises, games, services, and other commercial transactions, as well as other trading services.
It also provides blockchain technology research and development services. The company was formerly known as Changyou Alliance Group Limited and changed its name to Changyou International Group Limited in November 2024.
Changyou International Group Limited was founded in 2001 and is based in Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039) currently trades at HK$0.0510, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1342, implying the stock looks roughly 62% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.2650 per share, and 7 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$0.0510 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.0600, and 0 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0926 (bear) to HK$0.1862 (bull), the price of HK$0.0510 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Changyou Alliance Group Ltd reported revenue of 192M CNY in FY2025 versus 114M CNY in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was −16.1M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$92.4M (≈ $11.8M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.53 · Net margin −8.4% · Return on equity −711% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 7.5% · Revenue (TTM) 179M CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −14.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 28% fair-value upside, at 163%, 1039 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$0.0926Fair Value HK$0.1342BullHK$0.1862
Price HK$0.0510 · Upside +163.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.21/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−76.5% (2019) → −1.3% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.5% a year for the price.
Compare Changyou Alliance Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 117 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+163.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−10.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−9.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)7.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−14.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.80× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Changyou Alliance Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1039
Frequently asked questions
Is Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1342 versus a price of HK$0.0510, about +163% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1039?
Our model-based fair value for Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is HK$0.1342 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0510.
What is the quality score of 1039?
Changyou Alliance Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1342 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0926, optimistic scenario HK$0.1862. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Changyou Alliance Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1342, about +163% upside versus a price of HK$0.0510 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0926, optimistic scenario HK$0.1862. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
Changyou Alliance Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 179M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What growth is priced into Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
Today's price is already fair in a discounted-cash-flow model if free cash flow at Changyou Alliance Group Ltd shrinks by 9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue fell 6.5 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1039 use?
Our models discount Changyou Alliance Group Ltd at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Changyou Alliance Group Ltd that is -9.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Changyou Alliance Group Ltd shrank 6.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -9.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (-9.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 39.49 %: that much free cash flow Changyou Alliance Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Changyou Alliance Group Ltd it is HK$0.1342 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0510. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Changyou Alliance Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, 1039 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0510, fair value HK$0.1342, a gap of about +163% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1039?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0510); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1342). For Changyou Alliance Group Ltd the two are HK$0.0832 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Changyou Alliance Group Ltd worth?
The market values Changyou Alliance Group Ltd at about HK$92.4M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0510; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1342 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1039?
Our models span a range for Changyou Alliance Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0926, base HK$0.1342, optimistic HK$0.1862 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price HK$0.0510). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
Balance-sheet figures for Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): debt of 0.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1039 from its 52-week high?
Changyou Alliance Group Ltd trades at HK$0.0510, about 25% below its 52-week high of HK$0.0680 and 31% above the low of HK$0.0390 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1342 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Changyou Alliance Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Changyou Alliance Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price HK$0.0510, calculated fair value HK$0.1342 (+163%), Quality Score 63/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1039 calculated?
We run Changyou Alliance Group Ltd through 7 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$0.1342 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1% above its aggregate fair value. Changyou Alliance Group Ltd currently trades 62% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was HK$0.0510. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1342, about +163% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Changyou Alliance Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.0926). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.0926 to HK$0.1862) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
The market capitalisation of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is HK$92.4M (≈ $11.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is 0.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
The net margin of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is −8.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is −711% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is −13.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
The operating margin of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039)?
Revenue at Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is down 14.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Changyou Alliance Group Ltd (1039) carry?
The net debt of Changyou Alliance Group Ltd is 142M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 10, 2026