Changyou International Group (1039) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$90.5M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.0298 to HK$0.0299 (+0.5%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −8.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 35% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0446). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0330 – HK$0.4450 · fair‑value band HK$0.0299 – HK$0.0446 · the HK$0.0460 price screens above the HK$0.0299 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Changyou International Group (1039) currently trades at HK$0.0460, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0299, implying the stock looks roughly 35.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Changyou International Group generated revenue of HK$192M at a net margin of -8.4%. Revenue grew 29.9% year over year. Net debt stands at HK$142M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0299 (bear case) to HK$0.0446 (bull case); at HK$0.0460, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at -35%, 1039 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$0.0800) versus Multiples (HK$0.0300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Changyou International Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the digital points business in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
Changyou International Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the digital points business in the People's Republic of China. The company operates an electronic trading platform to promote and facilitate awards earned by customers of loyalty programs of other companies to be exchanged in the form of virtual assets and credits for the consumption of merchandises, games, services, and other commercial transactions, as well as other trading services. It also provides blockchain technology research and development services. The company was formerly known as Changyou Alliance Group Limited and changed its name to Changyou International Group Limited in November 2024. Changyou International Group Limited was founded in 2001 and is based in Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Changyou International Group reported revenue of HK$192M in FY2025 versus HK$114M in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$16.1M in FY2025.
1039 screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 108 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $267.28 | $127.67 | -52% |
| Alibaba Group BABA | $125.22 | $76.00 | -39% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $89.04 | $224.27 | +152% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,828 | $798.98 | -56% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $212.00 | $38.64 | -82% |
| Sea Limited SE | $128.11 | $52.70 | -59% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $102.31 | $60.13 | -41% |
| JD.com, Inc JD | €27.00 | €31.73 | +18% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.32 | $2.79 | -83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €37.04 | €12.71 | -66% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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