China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.6028 – HK$1.98 · fair‑value band HK$2.13 – HK$4.83 · the HK$1.65 price screens below the HK$3.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, operates dairy farming and produces raw milk in Mainland China, the United States, and internationally. It is involved in the production, trading, and sale of feeds; e-commerce platforms; forage grass planting; fertilizer treatment; and breeding of dairy cows.
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China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, operates dairy farming and produces raw milk in Mainland China, the United States, and internationally. It is involved in the production, trading, and sale of feeds; e-commerce platforms; forage grass planting; fertilizer treatment; and breeding of dairy cows. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Maanshan, the People's Republic of China. China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited.
Stock analysis
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117) currently trades at HK$1.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.48, implying the stock looks roughly 52.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$3.91 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$1.65 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.7100, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.13 (bear) to HK$4.83 (bull), the price of HK$1.65 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 12.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 7.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was −1.1B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$12.9B (≈ $1.6B) · P/S ratio 0.61 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.1200 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin −9.0% · Return on equity −11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0% · Operating margin 18.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 112%, 1117 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.13Fair Value HK$3.48Bull HK$4.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
31.4% (2020) → 17.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 290 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+112% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.46× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1117
Frequently asked questions
Is China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.48 versus a price of HK$1.65, about +112% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1117?
Our model-based fair value for China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd is HK$3.48 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.65.
What is the quality score of 1117?
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.48 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.13, optimistic scenario HK$4.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.48, about +112% upside versus a price of HK$1.65 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.13, optimistic scenario HK$4.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$12.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd it is HK$3.48 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$1.65. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 1117 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.65, fair value HK$3.48, a gap of about +112% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1117?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.48). For China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd at about HK$12.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.65; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1117?
Our models span a range for China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.13, base HK$3.48, optimistic HK$4.83 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$1.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −11.5%, debt of 1.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1117 from its 52-week high?
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.65, about 3% below its 52-week high of HK$1.69 and 87% above the low of HK$0.8800 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$1.65, calculated fair value HK$3.48 (+112%), Quality Score 35/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1117 calculated?
We run China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd currently trades 112 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was HK$1.65. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.48, about +112% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$2.13 to HK$4.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
The market capitalisation of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd is HK$12.9B (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd is 0.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
Earnings per share at China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.1200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
The dividend yield of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd is 1.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
The net margin of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd is −9.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd is −11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
The operating margin of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd is 18.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
Revenue at China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd is growing −4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117)?
Earnings per share at China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd are growing −58.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117) generate?
The free cash flow of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd is −HK$1.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd (1117) carry?
The net debt of China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd is HK$15.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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