China Modern Dairy Holdings (1117) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$7.7B
Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 5, 2026, revised from HK$3.41 to HK$3.45 (+1.2%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price +56.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 118% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.10). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$2.10 to HK$4.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.6028 – HK$2.22 · fair‑value band HK$2.10 – HK$4.79 · the HK$1.59 price screens below the HK$3.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
Analysis
China Modern Dairy Holdings (1117) currently trades at HK$1.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.45, implying the stock looks roughly 117.7% undervalued today. We read business quality at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Modern Dairy Holdings generated revenue of HK$12.6B at a net margin of -9.0%. Revenue declined 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -11.5%. Net debt stands at HK$15.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$2.10 (bear case) to HK$4.79 (bull case); at HK$1.59, the current price sits below that range. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 102% fair-value upside, at 118%, 1117 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$3.91) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.7100). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, operates dairy farming and produces raw milk in Mainland China, the United States, and internationally. It is involved in the production, trading, and sale of feeds; e-commerce platforms; forage grass planting; fertilizer treatment; and breeding of dairy cows.
Full company description
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, operates dairy farming and produces raw milk in Mainland China, the United States, and internationally. It is involved in the production, trading, and sale of feeds; e-commerce platforms; forage grass planting; fertilizer treatment; and breeding of dairy cows. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Maanshan, the People's Republic of China. China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Modern Dairy Holdings reported revenue of HK$12.6B in FY2025 versus HK$7.1B in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$1.1B in FY2025.
Watch 1117: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Farm Products · 298 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM | $82.30 | $38.02 | -54% |
| Muyuan Foods Group 002714 | ¥40.90 | ¥48.19 | +18% |
| Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 | ¥14.51 | ¥12.08 | -17% |
| Mowi ASA MOWI | kr 188.40 | kr 262.59 | +39% |
| PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN | 3,120 IDR | 7,076 IDR | +127% |
| Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF | 22.00 THB | 55.71 THB | +153% |
| PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk TAPG | 1,540 IDR | 3,105 IDR | +102% |
| PT FAP Agri Tbk FAPA | 7,300 IDR | 7,463 IDR | +2% |
| PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA | 2,070 IDR | 7,231 IDR | +249% |
| Thaifoods Group TFGR | 10.60 THB | 23.53 THB | +122% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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