Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd HK$0.18, price HK$0.11, upside +75.8%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0910 – HK$0.7385 · fair‑value band HK$0.1491 – HK$0.2201 · the HK$0.1050 price screens below the HK$0.1846 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Tang Palace (China) Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and food production businesses in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. It is also involved in intangible asset holding; and retail and wholesale trading activities.
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Tang Palace (China) Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and food production businesses in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. It is also involved in intangible asset holding; and retail and wholesale trading activities. Tang Palace (China) Holdings Limited was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181) currently trades at HK$0.1050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1846, implying the stock looks roughly 43.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.6400 per share, and 10 of the 11 models we run sit above the HK$0.1050 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0800, and 1 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1491 (bear) to HK$0.2201 (bull), the price of HK$0.1050 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 871M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −10.6%/yr. Reported net income was −57.6M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$128M (≈ $16.3M) · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0200 · Dividend yield 7.5% · Net margin −6.6% · Return on equity −35.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.6% · Operating margin −4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 76%, 1181 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.1491Fair Value HK$0.1846Bull HK$0.2201
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.2% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.9% (2020) → −4.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 229 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+76% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.5% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1181
Frequently asked questions
Is Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1846 versus a price of HK$0.1050, about +76% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1181?
Our model-based fair value for Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd is HK$0.1846 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1050.
What is the quality score of 1181?
Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1846 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1491, optimistic scenario HK$0.2201. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1846, about +76% upside versus a price of HK$0.1050 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1491, optimistic scenario HK$0.2201. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$895M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1181 use?
Our models discount Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd grew -4.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 39.78 %: that much free cash flow Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.1846 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1050. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1181 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1050, fair value HK$0.1846, a gap of about +76% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1181?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1050); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1846). For Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.0796 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd at about HK$128M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1050; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1846 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1181?
Our models span a range for Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1491, base HK$0.1846, optimistic HK$0.2201 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.1050). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −35.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1181 from its 52-week high?
Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.1050, about 54% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2280 and 2% above the low of HK$0.1030 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1846 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.1050, calculated fair value HK$0.1846 (+76%), Quality Score 47/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1181 calculated?
We run Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1846, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd currently trades 76 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was HK$0.1050. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1846, about +76% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.1491). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
The market capitalisation of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd is HK$128M (≈ $16.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd is 0.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
Earnings per share at Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
The dividend yield of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd is 7.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
The net margin of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd is −6.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd is −35.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd is 13.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
The operating margin of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd is −4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
Revenue at Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd is growing −13.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181)?
Earnings per share at Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd are growing −91.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd (1181) carry?
The net debt of Tang Palace China Holdings Ltd is HK$32.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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