1196 (1196) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · Market cap HK$15.0B

1 1196 1196 · HK

PriceHK$10.35

Fair ValueHK$5.77

Upside-44.3%

Quality46/100

Evidence: Low Range HK$2.78 – HK$9.16

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 3 valuation models · updated today

Share price +1.4% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$7.06 – HK$17.52 · fair‑value band HK$2.78 – HK$9.16 · the HK$10.35 price screens above the HK$5.77 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

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Analysis

1196 (1196) currently trades at HK$10.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.77 — implying the stock looks roughly 44.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$556M. Revenue grew 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -24.5%. Net debt stands at HK$12.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$556M

Revenue growth (YoY) +6.4%

Net margin -160%

Return on equity -24.5%

Free cash flow −HK$460M FY2025

Operating margin -11.2%

More key figures

EPS (TTM) HK$-0.3300

EPS growth (YoY) -54.2%

Net debt HK$12.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

1196 reported revenue of HK$556M in FY2025 versus HK$1.2B in FY2021, a compound −17.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$890M in FY2025.

Revenue −17.4%/yr

FY21 HK$1.2B

FY22 HK$1.2B

FY23 HK$601M

FY24 HK$428M

FY25 HK$556M

Net income

FY21 HK$122M

FY22 HK$113M

FY23 HK$76.7M

FY24 −HK$887M

FY25 −HK$890M

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6 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

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Waste Management, Inc WM	$213.31	$128.02	-40%
UWS UWS	€187.85	€117.80	-37%
WAST WAST	C$20.66	C$8.47	-59%
Republic Services, Inc RSG	$204.36	$122.01	-40%
Waste Connections, Inc WCN	$155.22	$47.73	-69%
Veolia Environnement SA VEOEF	$41.05	$35.75	-13%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 1196 (1196) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.77 versus a price of HK$10.35 — about −44% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 1196?

Our model-based fair value for 1196 is HK$5.77 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$10.35.

What is the quality score of 1196?

1196 has a Quality Score of 46/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 1196 (1196)?

1196 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$556M (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 1196?

The net profit margin of 1196 is about -160.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.