COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of COSCO Pacific Ltd HK$10.10, price HK$5.98, upside +69.0%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$3.09 – HK$6.16 · fair‑value band HK$7.51 – HK$13.13 · the HK$5.98 price screens below the HK$10.10 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited, an investment holding company, manages and operates ports and terminals in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally.
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COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited, an investment holding company, manages and operates ports and terminals in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. The company operates container, container freight stations, iron ore terminals, container terminals, and rail terminals, as well as offers financing, treasury, management, logistics, consultancy, container stevedoring, storage, inspection, and auxiliary services. As of December 31, 2025, it operated and managed 387 berths at 40 ports, of which 238 were for containers, with a total annual handling capacity of approximately 133 million TEU. The company was formerly known as COSCO Pacific Limited and changed its name to COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited in July 2016. COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited is a subsidiary of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199) currently trades at HK$5.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$10.10, implying the stock looks roughly 40.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$13.93 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$5.98 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$1.59, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$7.51 (bear) to HK$13.13 (bull), the price of HK$5.98 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
COSCO Pacific Ltd reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was $313M in FY2025, compounding −3.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$24.0B (≈ $3.1B) · P/E ratio 8.3 · P/S ratio 1.55 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.7224 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 18.7% · Return on equity 5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 60% fair-value upside, at 69%, 1199 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$7.51Fair Value HK$10.10Bull HK$13.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.5145 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.7% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.9% vs −2.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.3% a year for the price and +1.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 227 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+69.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.7% · Below median
Return on assets1.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)20.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)30.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.38× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
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Is COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$10.10 versus a price of HK$5.98, about +69% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1199?
Our model-based fair value for COSCO Pacific Ltd is HK$10.10 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.98.
What is the quality score of 1199?
COSCO Pacific Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$10.10 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$7.51, optimistic scenario HK$13.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the COSCO Pacific Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$10.10, about +69% upside versus a price of HK$5.98 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$7.51, optimistic scenario HK$13.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
COSCO Pacific Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does COSCO Pacific Ltd pay a dividend?
COSCO Pacific Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.62% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, COSCO Pacific Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +2.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.8 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1199 use?
Our models discount COSCO Pacific Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For COSCO Pacific Ltd that is +2.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at COSCO Pacific Ltd grew +10.8 % a year. The price currently implies +2.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into COSCO Pacific Ltd (+2.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.51 %: that much free cash flow COSCO Pacific Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For COSCO Pacific Ltd it is HK$10.10 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of HK$5.98. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is COSCO Pacific Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 1199 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$5.98, fair value HK$10.10, a gap of about +69% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1199?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$5.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$10.10). For COSCO Pacific Ltd the two are HK$4.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is COSCO Pacific Ltd worth?
The market values COSCO Pacific Ltd at about HK$24.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is HK$5.98; our models calculate a fair value of HK$10.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1199?
Our models span a range for COSCO Pacific Ltd: cautious scenario HK$7.51, base HK$10.10, optimistic HK$13.13 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price HK$5.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1199?
COSCO Pacific Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.3 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$10.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 0.5, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
What is the PEG ratio of 1199?
The PEG ratio of COSCO Pacific Ltd is 1.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 30, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
Balance-sheet figures for COSCO Pacific Ltd (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 5.7%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1199 from its 52-week high?
COSCO Pacific Ltd trades at HK$5.98, about 3% below its 52-week high of HK$6.16 and 38% above the low of HK$4.34 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$10.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to COSCO Pacific Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is COSCO Pacific Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price HK$5.98, calculated fair value HK$10.10 (+69%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1199 calculated?
We run COSCO Pacific Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$10.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. COSCO Pacific Ltd currently trades 41 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$5.98. Our model-based fair value is HK$10.10, about +69% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with COSCO Pacific Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$7.51). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199) come from?
Earnings per share at COSCO Pacific Ltd grew −2.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.9 %, EBIT margin −4.2 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of COSCO Pacific Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
The market capitalisation of COSCO Pacific Ltd is HK$24.0B (≈ $3.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
The price-to-sales ratio of COSCO Pacific Ltd is 1.55 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
Earnings per share at COSCO Pacific Ltd are HK$0.7224 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
The dividend yield of COSCO Pacific Ltd is 0.6% (payout 5.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
The net margin of COSCO Pacific Ltd is 18.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
The return on equity (ROE) of COSCO Pacific Ltd is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of COSCO Pacific Ltd is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
The operating margin of COSCO Pacific Ltd is 30.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
Revenue at COSCO Pacific Ltd is growing +14.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199)?
Earnings per share at COSCO Pacific Ltd are growing +44.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199) carry?
The net debt of COSCO Pacific Ltd is $2.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 30, 2026