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COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited (1199) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$18.0B

CS COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited 1199 · HK
PriceHK$5.02
Fair ValueHK$1.18
Upside-76.5%
Quality53/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 18.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
Moderate moat 46/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.8500 – HK$1.39 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Share price +2.1% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 76% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$6.36 HK$3.19 Fair Value HK$1.18 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$3.19 – HK$6.36 · fair‑value band HK$0.8500 – HK$1.39 · the HK$5.02 price screens above the HK$1.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited (1199) currently trades at HK$5.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.18, implying the stock looks roughly 76.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited generated revenue of HK$1.7B at a net margin of 18.4%. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.2%. Net debt stands at HK$2.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.8500 (bear case) to HK$1.39 (bull case); at HK$5.02, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -37% fair-value upside, at -76%, 1199 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$0.2300 to HK$2.04). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.9800 HK$1.79 HK$3.10 80
Residual Income HK$1.22 HK$1.23 HK$1.17 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.4900 HK$0.8800 HK$1.37 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.9700 HK$1.82 HK$3.18 38
Owner Earnings HK$0.9300 HK$1.74 HK$3.06 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.4900 HK$0.8700 HK$1.37 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.9000 HK$1.69 HK$2.64 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.8900 HK$1.66 HK$2.50 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.6300 HK$1.04 HK$1.60 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.9200 HK$1.62 HK$2.61 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.9100 HK$1.60 HK$2.51 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.5300 HK$2.04 HK$2.77 54
Lynch FV HK$0.5000 HK$0.7100 HK$0.9300 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.5000 HK$0.7100 HK$0.9300 46
EPV HK$0.1600 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2900 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.23 HK$1.63 HK$2.04 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.6200 HK$0.8300 HK$1.04 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.9900 HK$1.32 HK$1.65 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.4700 HK$0.7100 HK$0.9600 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.9800 HK$1.40 HK$1.82 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.2600 HK$0.4800 HK$0.7000 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.8000 HK$1.07 HK$1.60 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.9800 HK$1.79 HK$3.10 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.4900 HK$0.8800 HK$1.37 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.22 HK$1.23 HK$1.17 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1600 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2900 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.9000 HK$1.29 HK$1.67 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$1.62) versus Economic Profit (HK$0.2300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.3%
Net margin 18.4%
Return on equity 5.2%
Free cash flow HK$413M FY2025
P/E ratio 7.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 14.9%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.4593
EPS growth (YoY) -3.1%
Net debt HK$2.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 88
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 30
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 31
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited, an investment holding company, manages and operates ports and terminals in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally.

Full company description

COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited, an investment holding company, manages and operates ports and terminals in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. The company operates container, container freight stations, iron ore terminals, container terminals, and rail terminals, as well as offers financing, treasury, management, logistics, consultancy, container stevedoring, storage, inspection, and auxiliary services. As of December 31, 2025, it operated and managed 387 berths at 40 ports, of which 238 were for containers, with a total annual handling capacity of approximately 133 million TEU. The company was formerly known as COSCO Pacific Limited and changed its name to COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited in July 2016. COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited is a subsidiary of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited reported revenue of HK$1.7B in FY2025 versus HK$1.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$313M in FY2025, compounding −3.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.7B
Latest YoY
+11.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.8%
Avg. growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.9%
Revenue +8.5%/yr
FY21 HK$1.2B
FY22 HK$1.4B
FY23 HK$1.5B
FY24 HK$1.5B
FY25 HK$1.7B
Net income −3.1%/yr
FY21 HK$355M
FY22 HK$307M
FY23 HK$325M
FY24 HK$309M
FY25 HK$313M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −2.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.9 pp

of which total revenue +8.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.5 pp

EBIT margin −4.2 pp
Tax rate −0.3 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

1199 screens 76% overvalued. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
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COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited · Fair Value
HK$1.18 −76%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1199

Peer Group

Marine Shipping · 231 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Below median
Fair Value upside −77% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Above median
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.38× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.36× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.35× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 5.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.5× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.09× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 22
FUTURE 52 · sector 18
PAST 21 · sector 26
HEALTH 81 · sector 88
DIVIDEND 3 · sector 57

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS ₹1,658 ₹1,041 -37%
A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA kr 16,810 kr 3,033 -82%
HMM Co 011200 21,350 KRW 33,795 KRW +58%
JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA ₹346.60 ₹126.31 -64%
Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 87.10 TWD 212.79 TWD +144%
PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, TCPI 3,640 IDR 368.32 IDR -90%
Pan Ocean Co 028670 5,630 KRW 11,840 KRW +110%
Sociedad Matriz SAAM S.A SMSAAM 136.33 CLP 146.31 CLP +7%
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk ALII 795.00 IDR 350.80 IDR -56%
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya Purnamasari Tbk ELPI 700.00 IDR 298.20 IDR -57%

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Frequently asked questions

Is COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited (1199) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.18 versus a price of HK$5.02, about −76% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1199?
Our model-based fair value for COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited is HK$1.18 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$5.02.
What is the quality score of 1199?
COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited (1199)?
COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1199?
The net profit margin of COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited is about 18.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 18.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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