China Qidian Guofeng Holdings (1280) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$2.9B
Fair value as of: Aug 7, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated today
Share price −24.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 28% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.30). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4500 – HK$5.05 · fair‑value band HK$1.30 – HK$1.62 · the HK$1.12 price screens below the HK$1.43 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.
Analysis
China Qidian Guofeng Holdings (1280) currently trades at HK$1.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.43, implying the stock looks roughly 27.5% undervalued today. We read business quality at 17/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$357M. Revenue declined 35.0% year over year. Net debt stands at HK$53.5M. Fundamentals as of Aug 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.30 (bear case) to HK$1.62 (bull case); at HK$1.12, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 79% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at 28%, 1280 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$46.03) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.68). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 22 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Qidian Guofeng Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail of household appliances, mobile phones, computers, and imported and general merchandise in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through the Household Appliance Business, Liquor Business, Livestream e-commerce, and Education Business segments.
Full company description
China Qidian Guofeng Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail of household appliances, mobile phones, computers, and imported and general merchandise in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through the Household Appliance Business, Liquor Business, Livestream e-commerce, and Education Business segments. It also provides maintenance and installation services for household appliances; education-related training services; and logistics and warehouse services. In addition, the company involved in the trading of liquor business; bulk distribution sale of Midea air-conditioners; and operation of a chain of retail stores for selling household appliances and import and general merchandise, as well as providing product promotion to merchants via livestream in third party online platform. The company also sells its products online. The company was formerly known as Qidian International Co., Ltd. and changed its name to China Qidian Guofeng Holdings Limited in December 2023. China Qidian Guofeng Holdings Limited incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Qidian Guofeng Holdings reported revenue of HK$357M in FY2025 versus HK$301M in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$418M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 222 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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