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Data-driven stock valuation

Xtep International Holdings Ltd (1368) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Xtep International Holdings Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$10.3B (≈ $1.3B) · ISIN KYG982771092

At a glance

XI Xtep International Holdings Ltd 1368 · HK
PriceHK$3.50
Fair ValueHK$12.19
Upside+248.8%
Quality55/100

A solid business, trading 71% below our fair value of HK$12.19.

As of Aug 22, 2026, the fair value of Xtep International Holdings Ltd is HK$12.19 per share against a price of HK$3.50, so the fair value sits 249% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.7% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·7.87% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (11/14)
!Moderate moat 49/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Low Range HK$7.06 to HK$15.15

Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from HK$12.17 to HK$12.19 (+0.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −3.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$7.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$7.06 to HK$15.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$13.38 HK$3.28 Fair Value HK$12.19 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$3.28 – HK$13.38 · fair‑value band HK$7.06 – HK$15.15 · the HK$3.50 price screens below the HK$12.19 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Xtep International Holdings Ltd (1368) currently trades at HK$3.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.19, implying the stock looks roughly 71.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$10.46 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$3.50 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$2.48, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Xtep International Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$14.2B at a net margin of 9.7%. Revenue grew 7.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$922M. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026

Scenario range: HK$7.06 (bear) to HK$15.15 (bull), the price of HK$3.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 249%, 1368 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0309 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$4.29 HK$7.03 HK$11.83 78
Growth DCF HK$4.26 HK$6.77 HK$11.05 77
Owner Earnings HK$7.62 HK$13.09 HK$22.65 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$4.29 HK$7.03 HK$11.83 78
Owner Earnings HK$7.62 HK$13.09 HK$22.65 74
5Y Revenue Exit HK$4.93 HK$8.26 HK$12.83 71
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$6.80 HK$12.11 HK$18.88 74
5Y P/E Exit HK$7.21 HK$12.96 HK$19.63 69
10Y Revenue Exit HK$4.54 HK$7.63 HK$12.48 65
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.92 HK$10.46 HK$17.55 66
10Y P/E Exit HK$6.20 HK$11.09 HK$18.18 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$3.41 HK$15.99 HK$21.97 64
Lynch FV HK$4.23 HK$6.04 HK$7.85 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$4.23 HK$6.04 HK$7.85 57
EPV HK$5.87 HK$6.69 HK$7.41 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$8.28 HK$11.04 HK$13.80 63
P/S Multiple HK$4.66 HK$6.21 HK$7.77 58
P/B Multiple HK$6.40 HK$8.53 HK$10.66 55
EV/EBIT HK$10.90 HK$14.23 HK$17.55 66
EV/EBITDA HK$8.56 HK$11.10 HK$13.64 67
EV/Revenue HK$5.28 HK$7.15 HK$9.01 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.85 HK$2.48 HK$3.70 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$4.26 HK$6.77 HK$11.05 77
Rev-Margin DCF HK$4.93 HK$8.15 HK$12.31 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$3.57 HK$4.47 HK$10.76 69
ROIC Compounder HK$6.55 HK$8.57 HK$11.23 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$6.88 HK$9.83 HK$12.78 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$10.46) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.48). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 6.8 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 0.65 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.3200 price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.8
Dividend yield 7.9% payout 85.9%
Net margin 9.7% FY2025
Return on equity 14.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 9.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$14.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +7.1% 3y avg +3.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +8.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$708M FY2025
Net cash HK$922M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 36
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 90
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 8
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 18
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Xtep International Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells footwear, apparel, and accessories for adults and children in Mainland China. It operates through two segments, Mass Market and Professional Sports. The company sells its products under the Xtep, Saucony, and Merrell brands.

Full company description

Xtep International Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells footwear, apparel, and accessories for adults and children in Mainland China. It operates through two segments, Mass Market and Professional Sports. The company sells its products under the Xtep, Saucony, and Merrell brands. It sells its products through online channels and stores in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa regions. Xtep International Holdings Limited was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Xiamen, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Xtep International Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 14.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 10.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4B CNY in FY2025, compounding +10.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$14.2B
Latest YoY
+4.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (20Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+21.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+17.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+10.0%
Dividend yield7.9%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 10.0% vs 10Y 7.0%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11.2% (2020) → 14.3% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop41% (2014) · in HKD
Revenue +9.0%/yr
FY21 10.0B CNY
FY22 12.9B CNY
FY23 14.3B CNY
FY24 13.6B CNY
FY25 14.2B CNY
Net income +10.9%/yr
FY21 908M CNY
FY22 922M CNY
FY23 1.0B CNY
FY24 1.2B CNY
FY25 1.4B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +9.0 %

of which total revenue +11.8 % · buybacks/dilution −2.5 %

EBIT margin −2.8 %
Tax rate +0.5 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Xtep International Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$12.19 +71%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xtep International Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1368

Peer Group

Apparel Retail · 104 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Above median
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.11× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.02× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.73× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.6× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.28× · Cheaper than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Xtep International Holdings Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+0.8 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+11.6 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.6 %
FCF yield on price6.88 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.7 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 31
FUTURE36 · sector 18
PAST58 · sector 24
HEALTH94 · sector 100
DIVIDEND100 · sector 59

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A ITX 240.90 PLN 189.78 PLN −21%
The TJX Companies, Inc TJX $135.12 $84.95 −37%
Fast Retailing Co 6288 HK$37.20 HK$15.24 −59%
Ross Stores, Inc ROST $228.55 $118.41 −48%
Burlington Stores, Inc BURL $258.56 $143.65 −44%
Trent Limited TRENT ₹2,990 ₹709.49 −76%
lululemon athletica inc., LULU $100.61 $299.63 +198%
Aritzia Inc ATZ C$140.07 C$70.30 −50%
The Gap, Inc GAP $20.60 $36.44 +77%
Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN $80.97 $92.88 +15%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Xtep International Holdings Ltd (1368) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$12.19 versus a price of HK$3.50, about +249% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1368?
Our model-based fair value for Xtep International Holdings Ltd is HK$12.19 (as of Aug 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.50.
What is the quality score of 1368?
Xtep International Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xtep International Holdings Ltd (1368)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$12.19 (as of Aug 22, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$7.06, optimistic scenario HK$15.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xtep International Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$12.19, about +249% upside versus a price of HK$3.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$7.06, optimistic scenario HK$15.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xtep International Holdings Ltd (1368)?
Xtep International Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$14.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1368?
The net profit margin of Xtep International Holdings Ltd is about 9.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Xtep International Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Xtep International Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.87% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Xtep International Holdings Ltd (1368)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xtep International Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +0.8 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.7 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.6 % per year. As of Aug 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1368 use?
Our models discount Xtep International Holdings Ltd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.53. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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