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YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Ltd (1431) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$1.1B

YD YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Ltd 1431 · HK
PriceHK$0.3000
Fair ValueHK$0.2723
Upside-9.2%
Quality65/100
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Expensive Growth
Highly profitable · 20.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (11/12)
Wide moat 71/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.1728 – HK$0.3258 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.2721 to HK$0.2723 (+0.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +27.7% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

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What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$0.1728 to HK$0.3258) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.7200 HK$0.0860 Fair Value HK$0.2723 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0860 – HK$0.7200 · fair‑value band HK$0.1728 – HK$0.3258 · the HK$0.3000 price screens above the HK$0.2723 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Ltd (1431) currently trades at HK$0.3000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2723, implying the stock looks roughly 9.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.7B at a net margin of 20.2%. Revenue grew 5.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$109M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1728 (bear case) to HK$0.3258 (bull case); at HK$0.3000, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 97% fair-value upside, at -9%, 1431 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.6700 HK$1.08 HK$1.71 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.8200 HK$1.39 HK$2.59 74
ROIC Compounder HK$1.88 HK$2.55 HK$3.00 72
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.7100 HK$0.9800 HK$1.79 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.7500 HK$1.23 HK$2.25 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.86 HK$3.47 HK$6.64 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.56 HK$3.58 HK$6.38 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.7200 HK$1.46 HK$1.95 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.48 HK$3.64 HK$7.56 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.28 HK$3.05 HK$6.04 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.7800 HK$5.44 HK$7.64 54
Lynch FV HK$2.81 HK$4.02 HK$5.22 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$2.81 HK$4.02 HK$5.22 46
EPV HK$1.56 HK$1.76 HK$1.92 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.81 HK$2.41 HK$3.01 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.6800 HK$0.9100 HK$1.14 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.46 HK$1.95 HK$2.44 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.67 HK$3.52 HK$4.37 53
EV/EBITDA HK$2.36 HK$3.11 HK$3.86 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.7200 HK$0.9700 HK$1.23 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.6000 HK$0.8000 HK$1.20 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.6700 HK$1.08 HK$1.71 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.8200 HK$1.39 HK$2.59 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.9800 HK$1.05 HK$1.20 61
ROIC Compounder HK$1.88 HK$2.55 HK$3.00 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$3.68 HK$5.25 HK$6.83 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$5.25) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.8000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.5%
Net margin 20.2%
Return on equity 10.3%
Free cash flow HK$203M FY2025
P/E ratio 1.6 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 35.0%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0300
EPS growth (YoY) +159%
Net cash HK$109M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 61
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 30
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Limited, a dairy farming company, engages in the production and sale of raw cow milk in the People's Republic of China. The company operates dairy cow farms in Heilongjiang Province and Jilin Province. YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Limited was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Qiqihar, the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Limited, a dairy farming company, engages in the production and sale of raw cow milk in the People's Republic of China. The company operates dairy cow farms in Heilongjiang Province and Jilin Province. YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Limited was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Qiqihar, the People's Republic of China. The company operates as a subsidiary of China Feihe Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.7B in FY2025 versus HK$1.8B in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$538M in FY2025, compounding +36.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$2.7B
Latest YoY
+4.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.4%
Avg. growth/yr (15Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+81.9%
Revenue +10.6%/yr
FY21 HK$1.8B
FY22 HK$2.1B
FY23 HK$2.2B
FY24 HK$2.6B
FY25 HK$2.7B
Net income +36.1%/yr
FY21 HK$157M
FY22 HK$22.8M
FY23 −HK$340M
FY24 HK$297M
FY25 HK$538M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +3.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.1 pp

of which total revenue +9.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.0 pp

EBIT margin +0.2 pp
Tax rate +0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.6 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.2723 −9%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1431

Peer Group

Farm Products · 298 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −10% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 35% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 1.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.19× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.40× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 20 · sector 28
FUTURE 28 · sector 21
PAST 41 · sector 18
HEALTH 99 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 48

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥40.15 ¥47.42 +18%
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN 3,150 IDR 6,818 IDR +116%
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 21.90 THB 43.24 THB +97%
PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk TAPG 1,805 IDR 3,087 IDR +71%
PT FAP Agri Tbk FAPA 7,350 IDR 6,420 IDR -13%
PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA 2,260 IDR 6,974 IDR +209%
PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk JARR 1,890 IDR 610.80 IDR -68%
PT Nusantara Sawit Sejahtera Tbk NSSS 860.00 IDR 402.24 IDR -53%
PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk SMAR 5,625 IDR 16,227 IDR +188%
PT Dharma Satya Nusantara Tbk DSNG 1,320 IDR 2,696 IDR +104%

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Frequently asked questions

Is YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Ltd (1431) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2723 versus a price of HK$0.3000, about −9% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1431?
Our model-based fair value for YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Ltd is HK$0.2723 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.3000.
What is the quality score of 1431?
YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Ltd (1431)?
YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1431?
The net profit margin of YuanShengTai Dairy Farm Ltd is about 20.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 20.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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