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Smart Globe Holdings (1481) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$1.6B

SG Smart Globe Holdings 1481 · HK
PriceHK$1.48
Fair ValueHK$0.1700
Upside-88.5%
Quality65/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 3.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Narrow moat 33/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.1300 – HK$0.2100 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Share price +7.2% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 89% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2100). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$3.07 HK$0.1830 Fair Value HK$0.1700 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1830 – HK$3.07 · fair‑value band HK$0.1300 – HK$0.2100 · the HK$1.48 price screens above the HK$0.1700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Smart Globe Holdings (1481) currently trades at HK$1.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1700, implying the stock looks roughly 88.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Smart Globe Holdings generated revenue of HK$205M at a net margin of 3.9%. Revenue grew 52.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$67.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1300 (bear case) to HK$0.2100 (bull case); at HK$1.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 212% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -89%, 1481 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.1900 HK$0.2800 HK$0.4100 80
Residual Income HK$0.0900 HK$0.0900 HK$0.0900 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.2000 HK$0.3000 HK$0.4500 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.1900 HK$0.2800 HK$0.4700 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.2000 HK$0.3100 HK$0.4600 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.2400 HK$0.4100 HK$0.6400 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.1900 HK$0.2900 HK$0.4100 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.1900 HK$0.2900 HK$0.4600 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.2200 HK$0.3600 HK$0.6000 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.1900 HK$0.2800 HK$0.4200 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.0500 HK$0.3000 HK$0.4200 54
Lynch FV HK$0.0800 HK$0.1200 HK$0.1600 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1200 HK$0.1600 46
EPV HK$0.1300 HK$0.1400 HK$0.1400 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.1300 HK$0.1700 HK$0.2100 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.1000 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1600 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.1000 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1600 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.2400 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3500 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.2900 HK$0.3600 HK$0.4300 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.2000 HK$0.2500 HK$0.3100 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0600 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1200 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.1900 HK$0.2800 HK$0.4100 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.2000 HK$0.3000 HK$0.4500 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.0900 HK$0.0900 HK$0.0900 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1300 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1700 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.1300 HK$0.1800 HK$0.2400 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.2900) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.0800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$205M
Revenue growth (YoY) +52.6%
Net margin 3.9%
Return on equity 10.5%
Free cash flow HK$11.0M FY2025
P/E ratio 161.0
More key figures
Operating margin 3.7%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100
EPS growth (YoY) -63.5%
Net cash HK$67.0M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 93
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 94
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 44
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Smart Globe Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in production, distribution, and printing of books, and novelty and packaging products. It operates through Printing and Supply Chain Management Service segments. The company offers material sourcing, logistics service, and warehousing and storage services.

Full company description

Smart Globe Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in production, distribution, and printing of books, and novelty and packaging products. It operates through Printing and Supply Chain Management Service segments. The company offers material sourcing, logistics service, and warehousing and storage services. The company operates in Zambia, Hong Kong, South Africa, the United States, the People's Republic of China, Australia, France, Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Quarry Bay, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Smart Globe Holdings reported revenue of HK$205M in FY2025 versus HK$168M in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$7.9M in FY2025, compounding +47.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 76/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$205M
Latest YoY
+74.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.0%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.7%
Revenue +5.1%/yr
FY21 HK$168M
FY22 HK$132M
FY23 HK$97.2M
FY24 HK$118M
FY25 HK$205M
Net income +47.9%/yr
FY21 HK$1.6M
FY22 −HK$16.5M
FY23 −HK$3.7M
FY24 −HK$12.0M
FY25 HK$7.9M

1481 screens 89% overvalued. Compare with Cintas Corporation →

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Smart Globe Holdings · Fair Value
HK$0.1700 −89%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Smart Globe Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1481

Peer Group

Specialty Business Services · 253 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Above median
Fair Value upside −89% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Revenue growth 53% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.14× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 161.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 13.05× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 8.01× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 19.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 75.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 24
FUTURE 100 · sector 27
PAST 42 · sector 33
HEALTH 93 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 54

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Cintas Corporation CTAS $206.25 $95.30 -54%
RELX PLC RELX $33.70 $32.49 -4%
Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI C$133.87 C$70.40 -47%
Copart, Inc CPRT $27.61 $28.59 +4%
Global Payments Inc GPN $80.49 $69.67 -13%
RB Global, Inc RBA C$156.43 C$49.14 -69%
Brambles Limited BXB A$18.79 A$12.28 -35%
UL Solutions Inc ULS $87.76 $33.62 -62%
Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL €62.56 €103.99 +66%
Aramark ARMK $56.74 $13.73 -76%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Smart Globe Holdings (1481) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1700 versus a price of HK$1.48, about −89% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1481?
Our model-based fair value for Smart Globe Holdings is HK$0.1700 (as of Aug 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.48.
What is the quality score of 1481?
Smart Globe Holdings has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?
Smart Globe Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$205M (latest available figure, as of Aug 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1481?
The net profit margin of Smart Globe Holdings is about 3.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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