Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd HK$0.05, price HK$0.03, upside +51.3%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0300 – HK$3.34 · fair‑value band HK$0.0394 – HK$0.0514 · the HK$0.0300 price screens below the HK$0.0454 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the property development, investment, and management businesses in the People's Republic of China. It is also involved in hotel and catering, and cultural center operations and healthcare operations, as well as rental, leasing, and sale of properties.
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Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the property development, investment, and management businesses in the People's Republic of China. It is also involved in hotel and catering, and cultural center operations and healthcare operations, as well as rental, leasing, and sale of properties. In addition, the company engages in tourism and holiday projects; high-speed passenger transportation, ocean cargo transportation, and coastal tourism services; and commercial asset operations. Further, it offers preschool education and K12 education, community education, and online education services. Additionally, the company provides pharmaceutical products; professional medical services for sports enthusiasts, orthopedic patients, post-surgery patients, and sub-healthy individuals; and dental equipment. Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638) currently trades at HK$0.0300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0454, implying the stock looks roughly 33.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 16 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0394 (bear) to HK$0.0514 (bull), the price of HK$0.0300 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 9.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 35.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −28.1%/yr. Reported net income was 52.6B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$480M (≈ $61.2M) · P/E ratio 0.0 · P/S ratio 0.05 · EPS (TTM) HK$−1.43 · Net margin 553% · Return on equity −293% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.3% · Operating margin −375%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 82% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 51%, 1638 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0394Fair Value HK$0.0454Bull HK$0.0514
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−29.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+56.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+56.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → −9%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.9%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 575 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside+51.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−9.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity4.45× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1638
Frequently asked questions
Is Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0454 versus a price of HK$0.0300, about +51% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1638?
Our model-based fair value for Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd is HK$0.0454 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0300.
What is the quality score of 1638?
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0454 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0394, optimistic scenario HK$0.0514. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0454, about +51% upside versus a price of HK$0.0300 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0394, optimistic scenario HK$0.0514. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638)?
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.0454 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0300. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 1638 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0300, fair value HK$0.0454, a gap of about +51% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1638?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0454). For Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.0154 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd at about HK$480M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0300; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0454 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1638?
Our models span a range for Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0394, base HK$0.0454, optimistic HK$0.0514 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price HK$0.0300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1638?
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.0 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.0454 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 1638?
The PEG ratio of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd is 0.21 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity −293.0%, debt of 4.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1638 from its 52-week high?
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.0300, about 82% below its 52-week high of HK$0.1670 and at the low of HK$0.0300 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0454 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$0.0300, calculated fair value HK$0.0454 (+51%), Quality Score 50/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1638 calculated?
We run Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0454, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd currently trades 34 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.0300. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0454, about +51% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.0394). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638)?
The market capitalisation of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd is HK$480M (≈ $61.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd is 0.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638)?
Earnings per share at Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd are HK$−1.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638)?
The net margin of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd is 553% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd is −293% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd is −5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638)?
The operating margin of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd is −375% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638)?
Revenue at Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd is growing −5.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −27.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638)?
Earnings per share at Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd are growing +2.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638) generate?
The free cash flow of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd is 764M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638) carry?
The net debt of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd is 48.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 63.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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