1638 (1638) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · Market cap HK$480M

1 1638 1638 · HK

PriceHK$0.0480

Fair ValueHK$0.0420

Upside-12.6%

Quality44/100

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Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.0377 – HK$0.0462

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated today

Share price −30.4% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$0.0440 – HK$0.2040 · fair‑value band HK$0.0377 – HK$0.0462 · the HK$0.0480 price screens above the HK$0.0420 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

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Analysis

1638 (1638) currently trades at HK$0.0480, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0420 — implying the stock looks roughly 12.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$9.5B. Revenue declined 5.4% year over year. Net debt stands at HK$48.2B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 0.0. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$9.5B

Revenue growth (YoY) -5.4%

Net margin 553%

Return on equity -293%

Free cash flow HK$764M FY2025

P/E ratio 0.0

More key figures

Operating margin -375%

EPS (TTM) HK$-1.43

EPS growth (YoY) +2.3%

Net debt HK$48.2B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

1638 reported revenue of HK$9.5B in FY2025 versus HK$35.5B in FY2021, a compound −28.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$52.6B in FY2025.

Revenue −28.1%/yr

FY21 HK$35.5B

FY22 HK$25.4B

FY23 HK$26.2B

FY24 HK$11.6B

FY25 HK$9.5B

Net income

FY21 −HK$12.7B

FY22 −HK$13.1B

FY23 −HK$19.9B

FY24 −HK$28.5B

FY25 HK$52.6B

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Similar stocks

6 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM	146,800 VND	148,549 VND	+1%
DLF Limited DLF	₹627.60	₹215.17	-66%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI	6,650 IDR	1,330 IDR	-80%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA	₹862.00	₹721.45	-16%
Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY	₹1,633	₹1,368	-16%
Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP	₹1,642	₹788.35	-52%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 1638 (1638) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0420 versus a price of HK$0.0480 — about −13% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 1638?

Our model-based fair value for 1638 is HK$0.0420 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.0480.

What is the quality score of 1638?

1638 has a Quality Score of 44/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 1638 (1638)?

1638 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$9.5B (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.