SG Group (1657) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what SG Group is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.30 – HK$64.40 · fair‑value band HK$4.06 – HK$6.82 · the HK$54.00 price screens above the HK$5.37 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
SG Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, sells apparel products with designing and sourcing services to fashion retailers and wholesalers. It offers institutional catering services to private institutions.
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SG Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, sells apparel products with designing and sourcing services to fashion retailers and wholesalers. It offers institutional catering services to private institutions. The company also provides consultation and corporate management services, as well as source and quality assurance services; operates a showroom; and invests in properties. It operates in the United Kingdom, Germany, the United States, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company was formerly known as S&G Holdings Co. Ltd. SG Group Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Kwai Chung, Hong Kong. As of June 23, 2026, SG Group Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Chengdu Sefon Software Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
SG Group (1657) currently trades at HK$54.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.37, implying the stock looks roughly 906.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$5.56 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$54.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.60, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$4.06 (bear) to HK$6.82 (bull), the price of HK$54.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SG Group reported revenue of HK$166M in FY2026 versus HK$169M in FY2022, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$7.3M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.7B (≈ $220M) · P/S ratio 9.68 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.1800 · Net margin −4.4% · Return on equity −9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.0% · Operating margin −3.5% · Revenue (TTM) HK$166M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −90%, 1657 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$4.06Fair Value HK$5.37Bull HK$6.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.45/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest YoY
+8.1%
Revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Revenue growth/yr (11Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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Share of sales kept as operating profit (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2.1% (2021) → −5.3% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, ten years of growth, then 2 % a year. Compared with the average analyst sales forecast (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.6%
How much the company would have to grow every year for ten years to justify the current price.
Analysts expect (Ø )
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
🔴 A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Retail · 102 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−89% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.65× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.22× · Pricier than median
P/FCF17.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 100
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SG Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1657
Frequently asked questions
Is SG Group (1657) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.37 versus a price of HK$54.00, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1657?
Our model-based fair value for SG Group is HK$5.37 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$54.00.
What is the quality score of 1657?
SG Group has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SG Group (1657)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$5.37 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$4.06, optimistic scenario HK$6.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SG Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$5.37, about −90% upside versus a price of HK$54.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$4.06, optimistic scenario HK$6.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SG Group (1657)?
SG Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$170M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into SG Group (1657)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SG Group would have to grow free cash flow by +41.6 % per year for ten years (discount rate 12.1 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.6 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1657 use?
Our models discount SG Group at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.64, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SG Group that is +41.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SG Group (1657) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SG Group grew +6.6 % a year. The price currently implies +41.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SG Group (1657) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SG Group (+41.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SG Group (1657)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.66 %: that much free cash flow SG Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SG Group (1657)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SG Group it is HK$5.37 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$54.00. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SG Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 1657 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$54.00, fair value HK$5.37, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1657?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$54.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$5.37). For SG Group the two are HK$48.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SG Group worth?
The market values SG Group at about HK$1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$54.00; our models calculate a fair value of HK$5.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1657?
Our models span a range for SG Group: cautious scenario HK$4.06, base HK$5.37, optimistic HK$6.82 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$54.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SG Group (1657)?
Balance-sheet figures for SG Group (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −9.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1657 from its 52-week high?
SG Group trades at HK$54.00, about 33% below its 52-week high of HK$80.00 and 516% above the low of HK$8.76 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$5.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SG Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A, The TJX Companies, Inc, Fast Retailing Co, Ross Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SG Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$54.00, calculated fair value HK$5.37 (−90%), Quality Score 63/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1657 calculated?
We run SG Group through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$5.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.0 % above its aggregate fair value. SG Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with SG Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$6.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of SG Group
How large is the market capitalisation of SG Group (1657)?
The market capitalisation of SG Group is HK$1.7B (≈ $220M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SG Group (1657)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SG Group is 9.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SG Group (1657)?
Earnings per share at SG Group are HK$−0.1800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of SG Group (1657)?
The net margin of SG Group is −4.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SG Group (1657)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SG Group is −9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SG Group (1657)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SG Group is −7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SG Group (1657)?
The operating margin of SG Group is −3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SG Group (1657)?
Revenue at SG Group is growing −4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SG Group (1657)?
Earnings per share at SG Group are growing −98.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does SG Group (1657) hold?
SG Group holds more cash than debt, HK$26.5M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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