Headway (1776) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Headway TWD 16.51, price TWD 18.10, upside -8.8%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Headway Advanced Materials Inc. manufactures and sells polyurethane resin and thermoplastic polyurethane pellet products in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Headway Advanced Materials Inc. manufactures and sells polyurethane resin and thermoplastic polyurethane pellet products in the Asia-Pacific region. The company provides products, such as solvent and water borne polyurethane, PU solventless, polyisocynate, polyol, and thermoplastic polyurethane, as well as polyaspartate resin, and hardener for polyaspartate resin. Its products are used in various applications, such as textile, leather, furniture, footwear, building materials, electronics, and other industries. The company was founded in 1976 and is based in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Headway (1776) currently trades at 18.10 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.51 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 9.6% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 23.83 TWD per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the 18.10 TWD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 2.29 TWD, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Headway reported revenue of 1.0B TWD in FY2025 versus 1.5B TWD in FY2021, a compound −8.5%/yr. Reported net income was 16.5M TWD in FY2025, compounding −23.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1B TWD (≈ $34.1M) · P/E ratio 67.0 · P/S ratio 1.07 · EPS (TTM) 0.2700 TWD · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −9%, 1776 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 16.51 TWDFair Value 16.51 TWDBull 16.51 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1982 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.7% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−10.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15% vs −14%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 352 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Headway Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1776
Frequently asked questions
Is Headway (1776) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.51 TWD versus a price of 18.10 TWD, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1776?
Our model-based fair value for Headway is 16.51 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 18.10 TWD.
What is the quality score of 1776?
Headway has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Headway (1776)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.51 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Headway stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.51 TWD, about −9% upside versus a price of 18.10 TWD (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Headway (1776)?
Headway reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Headway pay a dividend?
Headway currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Headway (1776)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Headway would have to grow free cash flow by -21.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1776 use?
Our models discount Headway at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Headway that is -21.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Headway (1776) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Headway grew -5.7 % a year. The price currently implies -21.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Headway (1776) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Headway (-21.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Headway (1776)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.81 %: that much free cash flow Headway produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Headway (1776)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Headway it is 16.51 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 18.10 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Headway stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1776 trades above its calculated fair value: price 18.10 TWD, fair value 16.51 TWD, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1776?
No. The price is what the market pays today (18.10 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.51 TWD). For Headway the two are 1.59 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Headway worth?
The market values Headway at about 1.1B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 18.10 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 16.51 TWD per share.
What is the P/E ratio of 1776?
Headway trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 67.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16.51 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 8.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Headway (1776)?
Balance-sheet figures for Headway (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.1%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1776 from its 52-week high?
Headway trades at 18.10 TWD, about 11% below its 52-week high of 20.45 TWD and 28% above the low of 14.11 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.51 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Headway?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Headway stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 18.10 TWD, calculated fair value 16.51 TWD (−9%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1776 calculated?
We run Headway through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16.51 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Headway itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Headway (1776)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 18.10 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 16.51 TWD, about −9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Headway right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (16.51 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Headway (1776) come from?
Earnings per share at Headway grew −12.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −6.0 %, EBIT margin −9.8 %, tax rate −1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Headway
How large is the market capitalisation of Headway (1776)?
The market capitalisation of Headway is 1.1B TWD (≈ $34.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Headway (1776)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Headway is 1.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Headway (1776)?
Earnings per share at Headway are 0.2700 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 67.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Headway (1776)?
The dividend yield of Headway is 4.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Headway (1776)?
The net margin of Headway is 1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Headway (1776)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Headway is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Headway (1776)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Headway is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Headway (1776)?
The operating margin of Headway is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Headway (1776)?
Revenue at Headway is growing −0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Headway (1776)?
Earnings per share at Headway are growing +150% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Headway (1776) hold?
Headway holds more cash than debt, 83.7M TWD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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