Data-driven stock valuation

Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (1812) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

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Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$2.0B (≈ $250M) · ISIN CNE100000BK2

At a glance

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.8820). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.5200 – HK$7.39 · fair‑value band HK$0.8820 – HK$1.26 · the HK$0.6700 price screens below the HK$1.07 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (1812) currently trades at HK$0.6700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.07, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of HK$3.20 per share, and 2 of the 3 models we run sit above the HK$0.6700 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.2100, and 1 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$8.4B at a net margin of −87.9%. Revenue grew 274.0% year over year. Net debt stands at HK$26.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Scenario range: HK$0.8820 (bear) to HK$1.26 (bull), the price of HK$0.6700 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 60%, 1812 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$3.20) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.2100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (69).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited engages in the pulp production and paper making in China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Machine Paper, Financial Services, Hotels and Property Rentals, and Other.

Full company description

Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited engages in the pulp production and paper making in China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Machine Paper, Financial Services, Hotels and Property Rentals, and Other. The company offers culture paper, copperplate paper, coated paper, white cardboard, copy paper, industrial paper, special paper, life paper, newspaper, and thermal and glassine paper, as well as household paper comprising toilet papers, facial tissues, pocket tissues, napkins, and paper towels; and paper making raw materials, machinery, and chemicals. It also generates and sells electric and thermal power; engages in the forestry, saplings growing, and processing and sale of timber and construction materials; manufactures, processes, and sells wood products; purchases and sells waste; and provides wall materials, logistics, panels, and coal, as well as financial leasing, and equipment financial and operating leasing services. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of catering, hotel, marketing, capital market, funding, arboriculture, logistics, transportation, printing and packaging, machinery manufacturing, trading, property investment and management, commerce, business factoring, investment management, wholesale and retail, investment, finance, port, cargo transportation, and business services activities. Further, it engages in the electricity, tea, property, and real estate business. Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shouguang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 6.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 33.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −34.2%/yr. Reported net income was −8.3B CNY in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Paper & Paper Products · 118 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

• Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
• P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
• Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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