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WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of WINDMILL Group Ltd HK$0.17, price HK$0.40, upside -57.5%, quality 18 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · HK · ISIN KYG9700F1037

WG Thin data Sep 27, 2026

WINDMILL Group Ltd

1850 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$0.1700 · Strongly overvalued (−57.5%)
!Quality 18/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.6 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -1.2% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2024 0.2%
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/8)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$47.78 HK$0.0805 Fair Value HK$0.1700 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0805 – HK$47.78 · fair‑value band HK$0.1530 – HK$0.1785 · the HK$0.4000 price screens above the HK$0.1700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Beautiful Life Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a fire service installation contractor in Hong Kong. It engages in the design, supply, and installation of fire safety systems and other engineering and construction related activities for buildings under construction or re-development.

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Beautiful Life Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a fire service installation contractor in Hong Kong. It engages in the design, supply, and installation of fire safety systems and other engineering and construction related activities for buildings under construction or re-development. The company is also involved in the maintenance and repair of fire safety systems for built premises. In addition, it engages in trading of fire service accessories, including branded fire services equipment; administrative office activities; and provision of manufacture and assembly services used in fire services. The company was formerly known as HSC Resources Group Limited and changed its name to Beautiful Life Group Holdings Limited in April 2026. Beautiful Life Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1985 and is based in Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850) currently trades at HK$0.4000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1700, 57.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$1.14 per share, and 5 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$0.4000 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0500, and 10 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.1530 (bear) to HK$0.1785 (bull), the price of HK$0.4000 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

WINDMILL Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$374M in FY2024 versus HK$153M in FY2020, a compound +25.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$568K in FY2024.

Key figures

Market cap HK$56.2M (≈ $7.2M) · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0500 · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity −1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.4% · Operating margin −0.5% · Revenue (TTM) HK$372M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 87% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −58%, 1850 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.1530 Fair Value HK$0.1700 Bull HK$0.1785
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$1.12 HK$1.01 HK$0.9500 71
Owner Earnings HK$0.4800 HK$0.9100 HK$1.70 70
EPV HK$0.1900 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2300 70
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$0.4800 HK$0.9100 HK$1.70 70
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.0200 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1800 63
Lynch FV HK$0.0400 HK$0.0500 HK$0.0700 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.0400 HK$0.0500 HK$0.0700 57
EPV HK$0.1900 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2300 70
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.0700 HK$0.0900 HK$0.1200 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.0400 HK$0.0600 HK$0.0700 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.0400 HK$0.0600 HK$0.0700 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.4000 HK$0.5200 HK$0.6300 63
EV/EBITDA HK$0.5000 HK$0.6400 HK$0.7900 64
EV/Revenue HK$0.2300 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3800 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.8500 HK$1.14 HK$1.70 51
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.12 HK$1.01 HK$0.9500 71
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1900 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2300 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.0600 HK$0.0900 HK$0.1200 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 18/100

Of which business quality 23 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16.2% vs −39.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 1%

1850 screens overvalued: fair value 58% below the price. Compare with Allegion plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 111 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 18 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −57.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −0.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −1.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −0.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −1.0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 ¥15.54 ¥31.47 +103%
MSA Safety Incorporated MSA $182.32 $121.15 −34%
ADT Inc ADT $6.14 $19.40 +216%
The Brink's Company BCO $106.82 $121.18 +13%
The GEO Group GEO $31.22 $13.08 −58%
Brady Corporation BRC $84.02 $84.37 +0%
Loomis AB LOOMIS kr 562.00 kr 496.43 −12%
CoreCivic, Inc CXW $32.67 $18.76 −43%
S-1 Corporation 012750 83,300 KRW 99,629 KRW +20%

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WINDMILL Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.1700 −58%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "WINDMILL Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1850

Frequently asked questions

Is WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1700 versus a price of HK$0.4000, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1850?
Our model-based fair value for WINDMILL Group Ltd is HK$0.1700 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.4000.
What is the quality score of 1850?
WINDMILL Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 18/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1700 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1530, optimistic scenario HK$0.1785. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the WINDMILL Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1700, about −58% upside versus a price of HK$0.4000 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1530, optimistic scenario HK$0.1785. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850)?
WINDMILL Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$372M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For WINDMILL Group Ltd it is HK$0.1700 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.4000. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is WINDMILL Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1850 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.4000, fair value HK$0.1700, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1850?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.4000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1700). For WINDMILL Group Ltd the two are HK$0.2300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is WINDMILL Group Ltd worth?
The market values WINDMILL Group Ltd at about HK$56.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.4000; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1850?
Our models span a range for WINDMILL Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1530, base HK$0.1700, optimistic HK$0.1785 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.4000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850)?
Balance-sheet figures for WINDMILL Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −1.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 18/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1850 from its 52-week high?
WINDMILL Group Ltd trades at HK$0.4000, about 87% below its 52-week high of HK$3.09 and 27% above the low of HK$0.3150 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to WINDMILL Group Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, ADT Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is WINDMILL Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.4000, calculated fair value HK$0.1700 (−58%), Quality Score 18/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1850 calculated?
We run WINDMILL Group Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. WINDMILL Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.4000. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1700, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with WINDMILL Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1785). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850) come from?
Earnings per share at WINDMILL Group Ltd grew −25.2 % a year from 2014 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.5 %, EBIT margin −20.8 %, tax rate −2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of WINDMILL Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850)?
The market capitalisation of WINDMILL Group Ltd is HK$56.2M (≈ $7.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850)?
The price-to-sales ratio of WINDMILL Group Ltd is 0.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850)?
Earnings per share at WINDMILL Group Ltd are HK$−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850)?
The net margin of WINDMILL Group Ltd is 0.2% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850)?
The return on equity (ROE) of WINDMILL Group Ltd is −1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of WINDMILL Group Ltd is −0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850)?
The operating margin of WINDMILL Group Ltd is −0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850)?
Revenue at WINDMILL Group Ltd is growing −1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850)?
Earnings per share at WINDMILL Group Ltd are growing −31.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850) generate?
The free cash flow of WINDMILL Group Ltd is −HK$24.6M (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does WINDMILL Group Ltd (1850) carry?
The net debt of WINDMILL Group Ltd is HK$51.7M (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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