China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd HK$10.19, price HK$10.47, upside -2.6%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.49 – HK$12.73 · fair‑value band HK$7.49 – HK$12.74 · the HK$10.47 price screens above the HK$10.19 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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China XLX Fertiliser Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of urea primarily in Mainland China and internationally.
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China XLX Fertiliser Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of urea primarily in Mainland China and internationally. It offers compound fertilizers, methanol, liquid ammonia, Dimethylformamide, melamine, furfuryl alcohol, furaldehyde, humic acid, vehicles urea solutions, and related differentiated products, as well as medical intermediates. The company mines and sells coal; and distributes and sells electricity. In addition, it is involved in the manufacture and trading of gas, testing equipment, chemical production, intelligent equipment, head, and beauty products; and agricultural production, technological development, and consulting activities; international business and trading; construction of engineering design; and providing human resources; anti-corrosion, and transportation service. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Xinxiang, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866) currently trades at HK$10.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$10.19, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$18.56 per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$10.47 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$3.75, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$7.49 (bear) to HK$12.74 (bull), the price of HK$10.47 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd reported revenue of 25.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 17.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.5%/yr. Reported net income was 932M CNY in FY2025, compounding −7.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$13.1B (≈ $1.7B) · P/E ratio 12.1 · P/S ratio 0.45 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.8631 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 3.7% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at −3%, 1866 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$7.49Fair Value HK$10.19Bull HK$12.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.3678 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.9% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+23.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.3% vs 13.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 7%
Compare China XLX Fertiliser Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 178 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−2.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.1% · Above median
Return on assets3.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.34× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
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Is China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$10.19 versus a price of HK$10.47, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1866?
Our model-based fair value for China XLX Fertiliser Ltd is HK$10.19 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$10.47.
What is the quality score of 1866?
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$10.19 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$7.49, optimistic scenario HK$12.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China XLX Fertiliser Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$10.19, about −3% upside versus a price of HK$10.47 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$7.49, optimistic scenario HK$12.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 25.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does China XLX Fertiliser Ltd pay a dividend?
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.87% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China XLX Fertiliser Ltd it is HK$10.19 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$10.47. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China XLX Fertiliser Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1866 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$10.47, fair value HK$10.19, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1866?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$10.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$10.19). For China XLX Fertiliser Ltd the two are HK$0.2760 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China XLX Fertiliser Ltd worth?
The market values China XLX Fertiliser Ltd at about HK$13.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$10.47; our models calculate a fair value of HK$10.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1866?
Our models span a range for China XLX Fertiliser Ltd: cautious scenario HK$7.49, base HK$10.19, optimistic HK$12.74 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$10.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1866?
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.1 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$10.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
Balance-sheet figures for China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 1.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1866 from its 52-week high?
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd trades at HK$10.47, about 18% below its 52-week high of HK$12.73 and 45% above the low of HK$7.21 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$10.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China XLX Fertiliser Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China XLX Fertiliser Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$10.47, calculated fair value HK$10.19 (−3%), Quality Score 35/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1866 calculated?
We run China XLX Fertiliser Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$10.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. China XLX Fertiliser Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$10.47. Our model-based fair value is HK$10.19, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China XLX Fertiliser Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866) come from?
Earnings per share at China XLX Fertiliser Ltd grew +19.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +17.0 %, EBIT margin −1.1 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
The market capitalisation of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd is HK$13.1B (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd is 0.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
Earnings per share at China XLX Fertiliser Ltd are HK$0.8631 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
The dividend yield of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd is 2.9% (payout 34.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
The net margin of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd is 3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
The operating margin of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
Revenue at China XLX Fertiliser Ltd is growing +14.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866)?
Earnings per share at China XLX Fertiliser Ltd are growing −56.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866) generate?
The free cash flow of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd is −2.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (1866) carry?
The net debt of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd is 16.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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