China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (1880) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$99.9B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$44.30 to HK$44.35 (+0.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −1.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 11% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from HK$33.26 (bear) to HK$55.44 (bull), base HK$44.35. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 68/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
48‑month range HK$38.16 – HK$256.73 · fair‑value band HK$33.26 – HK$55.44 · the HK$49.70 price screens above the HK$44.35 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (1880) currently trades at HK$49.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$44.35, implying the stock looks roughly 10.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited generated revenue of HK$53.9B at a net margin of 7.4%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$29.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$33.26 (bear case) to HK$55.44 (bull case); at HK$49.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at -11%, 1880 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$46.01) versus Dividend Discount (HK$13.33). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in duty-free tourism retail business in China. The company engages in the wholesale and retail of duty-free commodities, such as tobacco, alcohol, cosmetics, watches and jewelry, apparel and bags, and electronic products, as well as food.
Full company description
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in duty-free tourism retail business in China. The company engages in the wholesale and retail of duty-free commodities, such as tobacco, alcohol, cosmetics, watches and jewelry, apparel and bags, and electronic products, as well as food. It is also involved in the investment and development of commercial complexes for duty-free businesses. The company was formerly known as China International Travel Service Corporation Limited and changed its name to China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited in June 2020. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Beijing, China. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Tourism Group Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited reported revenue of HK$53.7B in FY2025 versus HK$67.7B in FY2021, a compound −5.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$3.6B in FY2025, compounding −21.9%/yr from FY2021.
1880 screens 11% overvalued. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 223 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD | C$93.19 | C$75.00 | -20% |
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $839.03 | $398.90 | -52% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $245.15 | $162.63 | -34% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $531.89 | $475.40 | -11% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $202.66 | $181.10 | -11% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.00 | $108.04 | +30% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $36.43 | $35.52 | -2% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $544.22 | $423.35 | -22% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 109.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -26% |
| Canadian Tire Corporation CTC | C$216.35 | C$166.05 | -23% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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