China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 986M CNY
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 11 days ago
Share price +13.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 371% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.4420). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥0.8800 – ¥2.10 · fair‑value band ¥0.2635 – ¥0.4420 · the ¥1.64 price screens above the ¥0.3485 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017) currently trades at ¥1.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.3485, implying the stock looks roughly 78.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd generated revenue of 708M CNY at a net margin of 5.8%. Revenue declined 17.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.7%. Net debt stands at 22.9M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.2635 (bear case) to ¥0.4420 (bull case); at ¥1.64, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at -79%, 200017 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥0.4700) versus Economic Profit (¥0.0600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Shenzhen China Bicycle Company (Holdings) Limited engages in the gold jewelry business. It is also involved in the production, assembly, procurement, and sale of bicycles and electric bicycles under the Amini and EMMELLE brand names; and the procurement, consigned processing, and sale of lithium batteries materials.
Full company description
Shenzhen China Bicycle Company (Holdings) Limited engages in the gold jewelry business. It is also involved in the production, assembly, procurement, and sale of bicycles and electric bicycles under the Amini and EMMELLE brand names; and the procurement, consigned processing, and sale of lithium batteries materials. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd reported revenue of ¥580M in FY2024 versus ¥118M in FY2020, a compound +48.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥16.8M in FY2024, compounding +45.2%/yr from FY2020.
200017 screens 79% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Peer Group
Leisure · 194 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$72.80 | HK$119.82 | +65% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$151.00 | HK$227.30 | +51% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $33.03 | $16.16 | -51% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $94.89 | $81.97 | -14% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $45.40 | $15.61 | -66% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $89.10 | $36.89 | -59% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥44.94 | ¥39.73 | -12% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.25 | HK$29.50 | +107% |
| Mattel, Inc MAT | $14.65 | $18.93 | +29% |
| Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT | $48.26 | $52.62 | +9% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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