China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 8, 2026: fair value of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd ¥0.37, price ¥1.59, upside -76.7%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Shenzhen China Bicycle Company (Holdings) Limited engages in the gold jewelry business. It is also involved in the production, assembly, procurement, and sale of bicycles and electric bicycles under the Amini and EMMELLE brand names; and the procurement, consigned processing, and sale of lithium batteries materials.
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Shenzhen China Bicycle Company (Holdings) Limited engages in the gold jewelry business. It is also involved in the production, assembly, procurement, and sale of bicycles and electric bicycles under the Amini and EMMELLE brand names; and the procurement, consigned processing, and sale of lithium batteries materials. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017) currently trades at ¥1.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.3700, 76.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥0.5600 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥1.59 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥0.0400, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 580M CNY in FY2024 versus 118M CNY in FY2020, a compound +48.9%/yr. Reported net income was 16.8M CNY in FY2024, compounding +45.2%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1B CNY (≈ $163M) · P/E ratio 26.7 · P/S ratio 0.77 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0600 · Net margin 2.9% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% · Operating margin 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 39% fair-value upside, at −77%, 200017 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.0400 to ¥0.6300). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥0.3700Fair Value ¥0.3700Bull ¥0.3700
Price ¥1.59 · Upside -76.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0600 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income¥0.4000¥0.3800¥0.390076
Owner Earnings¥0.1100¥0.2100¥0.330075
EPV¥0.0200¥0.0400¥0.060070
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings¥0.1100¥0.2100¥0.330075
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥0.2000¥0.6100¥0.820064
Lynch FV¥0.1300¥0.1900¥0.250061
PEG = 1.0¥0.1300¥0.1900¥0.250057
EPV¥0.0200¥0.0400¥0.060070
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥0.4700¥0.6300¥0.790063
P/S Multiple¥0.3700¥0.4900¥0.610058
P/B Multiple¥0.3700¥0.4900¥0.610055
EV/EBIT¥0.3100¥0.4600¥0.620065
EV/EBITDA¥0.1900¥0.3000¥0.410066
EV/Revenue¥0.1600¥0.2900¥0.430052
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥0.2900¥0.3900¥0.590053
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥0.4000¥0.3800¥0.390076
ROIC Compounder¥0.0200¥0.0400¥0.060069
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥0.3900¥0.5600¥0.730067
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+52.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.1%
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+28.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.28.7% vs −33.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−11% → 3%
Compare China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 176 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−76.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.6% · Above median
Return on assets5.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)26.7× · Pricier than median
P/B3.17× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.52× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA26.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)27· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)34· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)87· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/200017
Frequently asked questions
Is China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.3700 versus a price of ¥1.59, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 200017?
Our model-based fair value for China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd is ¥0.3700 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥1.59.
What is the quality score of 200017?
China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.3700 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 15 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.3700, about −77% upside versus a price of ¥1.59 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017)?
China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 716M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd it is ¥0.3700 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of ¥1.59. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 200017 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥1.59, fair value ¥0.3700, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 200017?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥1.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.3700). For China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd the two are ¥1.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd at about 1.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is ¥1.59; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.3700 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of 200017?
China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥0.3700 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.2, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 26.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 200017 from its 52-week high?
China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd trades at ¥1.59, about 22% below its 52-week high of ¥2.04 and 24% above the low of ¥1.28 (as of Oct 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.3700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, ANTA Sports Products Limited, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price ¥1.59, calculated fair value ¥0.3700 (−77%), Quality Score 45/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 200017 calculated?
We run China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.3700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017)?
The closing price on Oct 8, 2026 was ¥1.59. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.3700, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.3700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017)?
The market capitalisation of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd is 1.1B CNY (≈ $163M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd is 0.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017)?
Earnings per share at China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd are ¥0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017)?
The net margin of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd is 2.9% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017)?
The operating margin of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017)?
Revenue at China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd is growing +5.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +52.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017)?
Earnings per share at China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd are growing −64.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017) generate?
The free cash flow of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd is −18.1M CNY (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd (200017) carry?
The net debt of China Bicycle Co Holdings Ltd is 22.9M CNY (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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