Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd HK$34.86, price HK$9.63, upside +262.0%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$4.23 – HK$11.18 · fair‑value band HK$26.15 – HK$43.58 · the HK$9.63 price screens below the HK$34.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Jiangling Motors Corporation, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of automobiles and automobile parts in China and internationally. It offers light trucks, pickups, light buses, multi-purpose vehicles, other commercial and passenger vehicles, and sport utility vehicles; and engines, frames, axles, and other components.
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Jiangling Motors Corporation, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of automobiles and automobile parts in China and internationally. It offers light trucks, pickups, light buses, multi-purpose vehicles, other commercial and passenger vehicles, and sport utility vehicles; and engines, frames, axles, and other components. The company is also involved in retail, wholesale, and lease of automobiles; and technical and business information consultation. It exports its products. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Nanchang, China.
Stock analysis
Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550) currently trades at HK$9.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$34.86, implying the stock looks roughly 72.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$51.32 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$9.63 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$10.72, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$26.15 (bear) to HK$43.58 (bull), the price of HK$9.63 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd reported revenue of 38.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 35.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was 1.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding +19.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$8.2B (≈ $1.0B) · P/E ratio 6.1 · P/S ratio 0.19 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.65 · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% · Operating margin 4.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 262%, 200550 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$26.15Fair Value HK$34.86Bull HK$43.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$1.25 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.3% vs −5.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.6% a year for the forecasts.
Compare Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+85.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.5% · Above median
Return on assets1.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
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Is Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$34.86 versus a price of HK$9.63, about +262% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 200550?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd is HK$34.86 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$9.63.
What is the quality score of 200550?
Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$34.86 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$26.15, optimistic scenario HK$43.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$34.86, about +262% upside versus a price of HK$9.63 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$26.15, optimistic scenario HK$43.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 36.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 200550 use?
Our models discount Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.08, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.81 %: that much free cash flow Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd it is HK$34.86 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of HK$9.63. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 200550 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$9.63, fair value HK$34.86, a gap of about +262% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 200550?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$9.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$34.86). For Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd the two are HK$25.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd worth?
The market values Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd at about HK$8.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is HK$9.63; our models calculate a fair value of HK$34.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 200550?
Our models span a range for Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd: cautious scenario HK$26.15, base HK$34.86, optimistic HK$43.58 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price HK$9.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 200550?
Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$34.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 0.6, P/S 0.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 200550?
The PEG ratio of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd is 0.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 7.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 200550 from its 52-week high?
Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd trades at HK$9.63, about 13% below its 52-week high of HK$11.08 and 6% above the low of HK$9.09 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$34.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price HK$9.63, calculated fair value HK$34.86 (+262%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 200550 calculated?
We run Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$34.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd currently trades 72 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$9.63. Our model-based fair value is HK$34.86, about +262% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$26.15). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550) come from?
Earnings per share at Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd grew −4.6 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.5 %, EBIT margin −11.7 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
The market capitalisation of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd is HK$8.2B (≈ $1.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd is 0.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
Earnings per share at Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd are HK$1.65 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
The net margin of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd is 3.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
The operating margin of Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
Revenue at Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd is growing +13.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550)?
Earnings per share at Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd are growing +14.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd (200550) hold?
Jiangling Motors Corp Ltd holds more cash than debt, 11.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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