Anhui Gujing Distillery Co (200596) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap HK$28.9B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$162.84 to HK$163.98 (+0.7%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +17.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 171% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$90.52). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$90.52 to HK$204.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$51.00 – HK$129.75 · fair‑value band HK$90.52 – HK$204.98 · the HK$60.50 price screens below the HK$163.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co (200596) currently trades at HK$60.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$163.98, implying the stock looks roughly 171.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Anhui Gujing Distillery Co generated revenue of HK$17.1B at a net margin of 16.5%. Revenue declined 18.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$15.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$90.52 (bear case) to HK$204.98 (bull case); at HK$60.50, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 171%, 200596 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$145.12) versus Asset-Based (HK$31.75). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of distilled wine in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
Full company description
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of distilled wine in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company primarily offers baijiu; and engages in machinery production, advertising, research and development, sewage processing, e-commerce, food testing, and construction activities. It is also involved in the manufacture and sale of glass products; provision of hotel management services; leasing of houses; and wholesale of construction materials, feeds, assistant materials, etc. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in Bozhou, the People's Republic of China. Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Anhui Gujing Group Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co reported revenue of HK$18.8B in FY2025 versus HK$13.3B in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$3.5B in FY2025, compounding +11.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +17.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,251 | ¥1,238 | -1% |
| Diageo plc DEO | $94.94 | $73.29 | -23% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥73.69 | ¥48.44 | -34% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥110.50 | ¥185.80 | +68% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €65.24 | €76.68 | +18% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥83.12 | ¥149.17 | +79% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $26.60 | $28.15 | +6% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,376 | ₹440.56 | -68% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4450 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +55% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥38.08 | ¥27.82 | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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