Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Ltd (200596) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Ltd HK$141, price HK$55.05, upside +156.1%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Ltd
200596 · SHEClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$51.00 – HK$129.75 · fair‑value band HK$75.99 – HK$176.25 · the HK$55.05 price screens below the HK$141.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Company profile
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of distilled wine in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
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Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of distilled wine in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company primarily offers baijiu; and engages in machinery production, advertising, research and development, sewage processing, e-commerce, food testing, and construction activities. It is also involved in the manufacture and sale of glass products; provision of hotel management services; leasing of houses; and wholesale of construction materials, feeds, assistant materials, etc. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in Bozhou, the People's Republic of China. Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Anhui Gujing Group Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Ltd (200596) currently trades at HK$55.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$141.00, implying the stock looks roughly 61.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$145.12 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$55.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$31.75, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$75.99 (bear) to HK$176.25 (bull), the price of HK$55.05 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Ltd reported revenue of 18.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 13.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was 3.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding +11.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$29.1B (≈ $3.7B) · P/E ratio 8.8 · P/S ratio 1.67 · EPS (TTM) HK$6.18 · Dividend yield 8.0% · Net margin 18.8% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 156%, 200596 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 24 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
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Compare Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 97 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Chinese Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,237 | ¥1,653 | +34% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥69.67 | ¥76.64 | +10% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥111.18 | ¥209.69 | +89% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €59.58 | €56.69 | −5% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥70.65 | ¥149.17 | +111% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4400 SGD | 0.7300 SGD | +66% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥37.47 | ¥24.22 | −35% |
| Radico Khaitan Limited RADICO | ₹4,557 | ₹947.39 | −79% |
| Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co 603369 | ¥26.92 | ¥38.66 | +44% |
| Emperador Inc EMI | 0.3850 SGD | 0.3053 SGD | −21% |
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Key figures of Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Ltd
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