Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd HK$7.96, price HK$3.27, upside +143.4%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.67 – HK$4.90 · fair‑value band HK$7.13 – HK$9.45 · the HK$3.27 price screens below the HK$7.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles, automotive engines, supporting parts, and components in the People's Republic of China and South Africa. The company's products include passenger vehicles, SUVs, electric vehicles, and commercial vehicles.
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Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles, automotive engines, supporting parts, and components in the People's Republic of China and South Africa. The company's products include passenger vehicles, SUVs, electric vehicles, and commercial vehicles. It offers its products under the CHANGAN, DEEPAL, AVATR, CHANGAN NEVO, CHANGAN LCV, CHANGAN Ford, CHANGAN Mazda, LUMIN, UNI, and HUNTER brands. The company also develops EV technologies represented by batteries, motors, and electronic controls; intelligent technologies, such as cockpits and pilot, as well as automotive lifestyle services; and businesses comprising automotive life, new marketing, and battery swap services, as well as provides auto finance services. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Chongqing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625) currently trades at HK$3.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.96, implying the stock looks roughly 58.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$23.39 per share, and 17 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$3.27 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$6.11, and 0 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$7.13 (bear) to HK$9.45 (bull), the price of HK$3.27 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd reported revenue of 164B CNY in FY2025 versus 105B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was 4.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$32.4B (≈ $4.1B) · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.3600 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 143%, 200625 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$7.13Fair Value HK$7.96Bull HK$9.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1475 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.4% vs −10.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 1%
Compare Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside+55.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Return on assets0.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/200625
Frequently asked questions
Is Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$7.96 versus a price of HK$3.27, about +143% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 200625?
Our model-based fair value for Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is HK$7.96 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.27.
What is the quality score of 200625?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$7.96 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$7.13, optimistic scenario HK$9.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$7.96, about +143% upside versus a price of HK$3.27 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$7.13, optimistic scenario HK$9.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 163B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.05% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd it is HK$7.96 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of HK$3.27. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 200625 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$3.27, fair value HK$7.96, a gap of about +143% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 200625?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$7.96). For Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd the two are HK$4.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd worth?
The market values Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd at about HK$32.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.27; our models calculate a fair value of HK$7.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 200625?
Our models span a range for Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$7.13, base HK$7.96, optimistic HK$9.45 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price HK$3.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 200625?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$7.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 0.4, P/S 0.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 200625?
The PEG ratio of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 0.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 200625 from its 52-week high?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd trades at HK$3.27, about 30% below its 52-week high of HK$4.67 and 10% above the low of HK$2.96 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$7.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price HK$3.27, calculated fair value HK$7.96 (+143%), Quality Score 48/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 200625 calculated?
We run Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$7.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$3.27. Our model-based fair value is HK$7.96, about +143% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$7.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625) come from?
Earnings per share at Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd grew +0.8 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.8 %, EBIT margin −8.2 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
The market capitalisation of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is HK$32.4B (≈ $4.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 0.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
Earnings per share at Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd are HK$0.3600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
The dividend yield of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 5.0% (payout 45.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
The net margin of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 2.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
The operating margin of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
Revenue at Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is growing −4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625)?
Earnings per share at Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd are growing −71.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625) generate?
The free cash flow of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is −2.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (200625) hold?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 62.8B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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