Country Garden Holdings (2007) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$8.3B (≈ $1.1B) · ISIN KYG245241032
What is Country Garden Holdings really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 18% above our fair value of HK$0.1687.
As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Country Garden Holdings is HK$0.1687 per share against a price of HK$0.1990, so the fair value sits 15% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.1685 to HK$0.1687 (+0.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +13.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$0.1175 to HK$0.2402) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1670 – HK$9.17 · fair‑value band HK$0.1175 – HK$0.2402 · the HK$0.1990 price screens above the HK$0.1687 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Country Garden Holdings (2007) currently trades at HK$0.1990, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1687, implying the stock looks roughly 18.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$1.55 per share, and 9 of the 9 models we run sit above the HK$0.1990 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.7700, and 0 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Country Garden Holdings generated revenue of HK$155B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue declined 45.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at HK$145B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1175 (bear case) to HK$0.2402 (bull case); at HK$0.1990, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 72% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −15%, 2007 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$1.76) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.7700). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 7
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, invests, develops, and constructs real estate properties in Mainland China. The company develops residential projects, such as townhouses and condominiums, and car parks and retail shops spaces. It also develops, operates, and manages hotels.
Full company description
Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, invests, develops, and constructs real estate properties in Mainland China. The company develops residential projects, such as townhouses and condominiums, and car parks and retail shops spaces. It also develops, operates, and manages hotels. In addition, the company engages in the robotics and light-asset entrusted management and construction services; rendering of property related sales services; interior decoration activities; and provision of project management and related services, as well as investment consulting services. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Foshan, the People's Republic of China. Country Garden Holdings Company Limited is a subsidiary of Concrete Win Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Country Garden Holdings reported revenue of 155B CNY in FY2025 versus 523B CNY in FY2021, a compound −26.2%/yr. Reported net income was 3.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding −40.9%/yr from FY2021.
2007 screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited →
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 80016 | HK$109.70 | HK$88.93 | −19% |
| China Resources Land Limited 1109 | HK$35.24 | HK$72.16 | +105% |
| Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM | 71,700 VND | 109,431 VND | +53% |
| CK Asset Holdings 1113 | HK$47.34 | HK$68.85 | +45% |
| Hongkong Land Holdings H78 | $8.20 | $1.52 | −81% |
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹667.10 | ₹170.24 | −74% |
| China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 | HK$13.76 | HK$22.92 | +67% |
| Macrotech Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,244 | ₹583.42 | −53% |
| Sino Land Company 0083 | HK$10.33 | HK$6.99 | −32% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 5,925 IDR | 1,325 IDR | −78% |
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