China Merchants Port Group (201872) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 42.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥31.59 to ¥19.11 (−39.5%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +3.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 13% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from ¥15.79 (bear) to ¥26.32 (bull), base ¥19.11. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 60/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.32 – ¥17.38 · fair‑value band ¥15.79 – ¥26.32 · the ¥16.95 price screens below the ¥19.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Merchants Port Group (201872) currently trades at ¥16.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥19.11, implying the stock looks roughly 12.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants Port Group generated revenue of 17.4B CNY at a net margin of 26.7%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.8%. Net debt stands at 32.6B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥15.79 (bear case) to ¥26.32 (bull case); at ¥16.95, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 13%, 201872 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥46.71) versus Economic Profit (¥13.90). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Merchants Port Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides port, bonded logistics, and other services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through Port Operations, Bonded Logistics Operations, and Other segments.
Full company description
China Merchants Port Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides port, bonded logistics, and other services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through Port Operations, Bonded Logistics Operations, and Other segments. The Port Operations segment includes container terminal operation, and bulk and general cargo terminal operation. The Bonded Logistics Operations segment includes logistics park operation, ports transportation, and airport cargo handling activities. The Other segment comprise property development and investment, and logistics business. The company was formerly known as Shenzhen Chiwan Wharf Holdings Limited and changed its name to China Merchants Port Group Co., Ltd. in December 2018. China Merchants Port Group Co. Ltd., was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Merchants Port Group reported revenue of ¥17.2B in FY2025 versus ¥15.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥4.6B in FY2025, compounding +14.5%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Marine Shipping · 231 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS | ₹1,658 | ₹1,041 | -37% |
| A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA | kr 16,810 | kr 3,033 | -82% |
| COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 | ¥15.25 | ¥49.90 | +227% |
| HMM Co 011200 | 21,350 KRW | 33,795 KRW | +58% |
| JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA | ₹346.60 | ₹126.31 | -64% |
| Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 | 87.10 TWD | 212.79 TWD | +144% |
| PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, TCPI | 3,640 IDR | 368.32 IDR | -90% |
| Pan Ocean Co 028670 | 5,630 KRW | 11,840 KRW | +110% |
| Sociedad Matriz SAAM S.A SMSAAM | 136.33 CLP | 146.31 CLP | +7% |
| PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk ALII | 795.00 IDR | 350.80 IDR | -56% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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