China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd ¥21.86, price ¥18.54, upside +17.9%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.46 – ¥18.54 · fair‑value band ¥12.94 – ¥36.23 · the ¥18.54 price screens below the ¥21.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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China Merchants Port Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides port, bonded logistics, and other services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through Port Operations, Bonded Logistics Operations, and Other segments.
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China Merchants Port Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides port, bonded logistics, and other services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through Port Operations, Bonded Logistics Operations, and Other segments. The Port Operations segment includes container terminal operation, and bulk and general cargo terminal operation. The Bonded Logistics Operations segment includes logistics park operation, ports transportation, and airport cargo handling activities. The Other segment comprise property development and investment, and logistics business. The company was formerly known as Shenzhen Chiwan Wharf Holdings Limited and changed its name to China Merchants Port Group Co., Ltd. in December 2018. China Merchants Port Group Co. Ltd., was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872) currently trades at ¥18.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥21.86, implying the stock looks roughly 15.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥37.65 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥18.54 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥6.68, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥12.94 (bear) to ¥36.23 (bull), the price of ¥18.54 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 17.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 15.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was 4.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding +14.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 46.0B CNY (≈ $6.9B) · P/E ratio 8.2 · P/S ratio 2.18 · EPS (TTM) ¥2.25 · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin 26.7% · Return on equity 7.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 60% fair-value upside, at 18%, 201872 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥12.94Fair Value ¥21.86Bull ¥36.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.9357 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 33%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.3% a year for the price.
Compare China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 229 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+17.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.0% · Below median
Return on assets3.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)51.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)34.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/201872
Frequently asked questions
Is China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥21.86 versus a price of ¥18.54, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 201872?
Our model-based fair value for China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd is ¥21.86 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥18.54.
What is the quality score of 201872?
China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥21.86 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥12.94, optimistic scenario ¥36.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥21.86, about +18% upside versus a price of ¥18.54 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥12.94, optimistic scenario ¥36.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.39% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +0.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 201872 use?
Our models discount China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd that is +0.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd grew +6.5 % a year. The price currently implies +0.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (+0.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.03 %: that much free cash flow China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd it is ¥21.86 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ¥18.54. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 201872 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥18.54, fair value ¥21.86, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 201872?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥18.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥21.86). For China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd the two are ¥3.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd at about 46.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥18.54; our models calculate a fair value of ¥21.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 201872?
Our models span a range for China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥12.94, base ¥21.86, optimistic ¥36.23 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ¥18.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 201872?
China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥21.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 0.7, P/S 5.0, EV/EBITDA 13.1.
What is the PEG ratio of 201872?
The PEG ratio of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd is 0.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 7.0%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 201872 from its 52-week high?
China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd trades at ¥18.54, at its 52-week high of ¥18.54 and 26% above the low of ¥14.70 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥21.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ¥18.54, calculated fair value ¥21.86 (+18%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 201872 calculated?
We run China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥21.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥18.54. Our model-based fair value is ¥21.86, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (¥12.94 to ¥36.23). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
The market capitalisation of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd is 46.0B CNY (≈ $6.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd is 2.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
Earnings per share at China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd are ¥2.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
The dividend yield of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd is 5.4% (payout 44.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
The net margin of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd is 26.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
The operating margin of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd is 34.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
Revenue at China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872)?
Earnings per share at China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd are growing +8.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd (201872) carry?
The net debt of China Merchants Port Group Co Ltd is 32.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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