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China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd (2039) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$38.8B

CI China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd 2039 · HK
PriceHK$7.98
Fair ValueHK$3.28
Upside-58.9%
Quality55/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -0.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.48% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
Narrow moat 19/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$1.48 – HK$4.54 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$1.64 to HK$3.28 (+100.0%) since Aug 12, 2026. Share price +11.9% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 59% overvalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$4.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$1.48 to HK$4.54). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$12.27 HK$3.63 Fair Value HK$3.28 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$3.63 – HK$12.27 · fair‑value band HK$1.48 – HK$4.54 · the HK$7.98 price screens above the HK$3.28 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd (2039) currently trades at HK$7.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.28, implying the stock looks roughly 58.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$153B at a net margin of -0.1%. Revenue declined 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.5%. Net debt stands at HK$21.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.48 (bear case) to HK$4.54 (bull case); at HK$7.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -59%, 2039 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$34.60 HK$62.52 HK$111.37 80
Residual Income HK$5.86 HK$5.45 HK$3.78 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$18.14 HK$28.15 HK$41.57 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$35.15 HK$66.48 HK$123.43 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$18.14 HK$28.07 HK$41.06 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$23.26 HK$38.97 HK$58.67 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$11.76 HK$14.49 HK$17.02 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$23.11 HK$34.73 HK$51.88 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$26.90 HK$42.87 HK$67.09 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$19.18 HK$24.59 HK$31.11 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.2700 HK$1.41 HK$1.95 54
Lynch FV HK$0.3900 HK$0.5500 HK$0.7200 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.3900 HK$0.5500 HK$0.7200 46
EPV HK$8.33 HK$9.62 HK$10.74 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.57 HK$3.27 HK$5.18 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.57 HK$2.76 HK$3.43 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.6300 HK$0.8400 HK$1.06 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.5100 HK$0.6800 HK$0.8500 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.5100 HK$0.6800 HK$0.8500 55
EV/EBIT HK$14.38 HK$18.97 HK$23.57 53
EV/EBITDA HK$19.09 HK$25.25 HK$31.42 54
EV/Revenue HK$10.43 HK$14.65 HK$18.87 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.33 HK$5.80 HK$8.66 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$34.60 HK$62.52 HK$111.37 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$18.14 HK$28.15 HK$41.57 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$5.86 HK$5.45 HK$3.78 76
ROIC Compounder HK$8.33 HK$10.88 HK$13.74 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.5800 HK$0.8300 HK$1.08 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$34.73) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.5500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$153B
Revenue growth (YoY) -9.3%
Net margin -0.1%
Return on equity 1.5%
Free cash flow HK$13.7B FY2025
Operating margin 3.0%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) HK$-0.0344
Dividend yield 2.5%
EPS growth (YoY) -63.6%
Net debt HK$21.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China International Marine Containers (Group) Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells logistics and energy equipment in China, America, Europe, Asia, and internationally.

Full company description

China International Marine Containers (Group) Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells logistics and energy equipment in China, America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company operates through Containers Manufacturing; Road Transportation Vehicles; Energy, Chemical and Liquid Food Equipment; Offshore Engineering; Airport Facilities and Logistics Equipment, Fire Safety and Rescue Equipment; Logistics Services; Finance and Asset Management; Recycled Load; and Others segments. It offers energy, chemical, and liquid food equipment. The company also designs and constructs semi-submersible drilling and jack-up drilling platforms, as well as provides maintenance and reconstruction services for its platforms. In addition, it provides dry, reefer, and special-purpose containers; semi-trailers, EV-DTB truck body products, and EV tractors and trailers; seaport passenger boarding bridges, airport baggage handling system, special vehicles for airport ground, air cargo handling system, fire trucks and rescue equipment, automated warehouse logistics systems, automatic parking system, and other airport facilities and automatic storage products; reusable transport packaging design and leasing services; and multimodal transport logistics solutions. Further, the company offers finance lease, operating lease, and other finance solutions for customers in the fields of offshore engineering, road transportation vehicle, energy, chemical, and food equipment. Additionally, it engages in industry-city development and provides fire security solutions. The company was formerly known as China International Marine Containers Co., Ltd. and changed its name to China International Marine Containers (Group) Co., Ltd. in 1995. China International Marine Containers (Group) Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$152B in FY2025 versus HK$164B in FY2021, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$215M in FY2025, compounding −57.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$152B
Latest YoY
−14.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.1%
Avg. growth/yr (34Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+21.4%
Revenue −1.8%/yr
FY21 HK$164B
FY22 HK$142B
FY23 HK$128B
FY24 HK$178B
FY25 HK$152B
Net income −57.6%/yr
FY21 HK$6.7B
FY22 HK$4.6B
FY23 HK$421M
FY24 HK$3.0B
FY25 HK$215M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −4.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share +10.2 pp

of which total revenue +10.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.7 pp

EBIT margin −1.8 pp
Tax rate −4.9 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −7.7 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

2039 screens 59% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →

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China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$3.28 −59%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2039

Peer Group

Metal Fabrication · 249 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −59% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth -9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.46× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.11× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 33
PAST 6 · sector 19
HEALTH 77 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 50 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd (2039) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.28 versus a price of HK$7.98, about −59% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2039?
Our model-based fair value for China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd is HK$3.28 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$7.98.
What is the quality score of 2039?
China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd (2039)?
China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$153B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2039?
The net profit margin of China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd is about -0.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China International Marine Containers Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.48% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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