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Nayuki Holdings Ltd (2150) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$1.1B (≈ $139M) · ISIN KYG6432S1066

What is Nayuki Holdings Ltd really worth?

NH Nayuki Holdings Ltd 2150 · HK
PriceHK$0.6600
Fair ValueHK$1.03
Upside+56.2%
Quality55/100

A solid business, trading 36% below our fair value of HK$1.03.

As of Sep 1, 2026, the fair value of Nayuki Holdings Ltd is HK$1.03 per share against a price of HK$0.6600, so the fair value sits 56% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -5.5% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (5/10)
!Narrow moat 1/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Low Range HK$0.8937 – HK$1.40

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 14 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Share price −9.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.8937). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$17.12 HK$0.6200 Fair Value HK$1.03 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.6200 – HK$17.12 · fair‑value band HK$0.8937 – HK$1.40 · the HK$0.6600 price screens below the HK$1.03 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

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Analysis

Nayuki Holdings Ltd (2150) currently trades at HK$0.6600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.03, implying the stock looks roughly 36.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$6.15 per share, and 14 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$0.6600 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.44, and 0 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Nayuki Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$4.3B at a net margin of −5.5%. Revenue declined 9.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −6.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$567M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.8937 (bear case) to HK$1.40 (bull case); at HK$0.6600, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 56%, 2150 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$2.00 HK$2.44 HK$3.01 82
Growth DCF HK$2.01 HK$2.39 HK$2.87 80
Owner Earnings HK$2.16 HK$2.67 HK$3.33 78
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$2.00 HK$2.44 HK$3.01 82
Owner Earnings HK$2.16 HK$2.67 HK$3.33 78
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.57 HK$3.63 HK$4.98 73
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.24 HK$6.71 HK$9.58 75
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.26 HK$3.12 HK$4.24 67
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.29 HK$5.05 HK$7.40 68
Earnings-Based
EPV HK$3.02 HK$3.31 HK$3.54 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$4.85 HK$6.15 HK$7.45 66
EV/EBITDA HK$6.42 HK$8.24 HK$10.07 67
EV/Revenue HK$3.08 HK$4.00 HK$4.92 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.07 HK$1.44 HK$2.15 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.01 HK$2.39 HK$2.87 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.57 HK$3.63 HK$4.80 73
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder HK$3.13 HK$3.57 HK$4.05 72

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$6.15) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.44). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 0.25 TTM
EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0700
Net margin −5.5% FY2025
Return on equity −6.5% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5% avg 5y
Operating margin −5.1% TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$4.3B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −9.5% 3y avg +0.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$194M FY2025
Net cash HK$567M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Nayuki Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates a chain of teahouses in the People's Republic of China. It sells freshly made tea drinks, baked goods, and other products, as well as ready-to-drink beverages.

Full company description

Nayuki Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates a chain of teahouses in the People's Republic of China. It sells freshly made tea drinks, baked goods, and other products, as well as ready-to-drink beverages. The company also provides store operations management, supply chain management, and other services; and engages in franchise operations. It also sells flavored bottled sparkling water. Nayuki Holdings Limited was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Nayuki Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 4.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was −239M CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$4.3B
Latest YoY
−12.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (7Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+21.8%
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue +0.2%/yr
FY21 4.3B CNY
FY22 4.3B CNY
FY23 5.2B CNY
FY24 4.9B CNY
FY25 4.3B CNY
Net income
FY21 −4.5B CNY
FY22 −469M CNY
FY23 13.2M CNY
FY24 −917M CNY
FY25 −239M CNY

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nayuki Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2150.HK

Peer Group

Restaurants · 221 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside +56% · Top 25%
Return on assets −2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −5% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth −10% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 26
FUTURE0 · sector 18
PAST0 · sector 15
HEALTH100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND0 · sector 68

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McDonald's Corporation MCD $260.06 $149.03 −43%
Starbucks Corporation SBUX $107.26 $35.83 −67%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $38.03 $17.92 −53%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $153.31 $58.17 −62%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR C$104.50 C$36.37 −65%
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI $218.86 $173.68 −21%
Yum China Holdings YUMC $43.60 $54.27 +24%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $198.99 $104.89 −47%
Dutch Bros Inc BROS $51.02 $12.80 −75%
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $341.08 $227.31 −33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Nayuki Holdings Ltd (2150) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.03 versus a price of HK$0.6600, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2150?
Our model-based fair value for Nayuki Holdings Ltd is HK$1.03 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.6600.
What is the quality score of 2150?
Nayuki Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nayuki Holdings Ltd (2150)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.03 (as of Sep 1, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.8937, optimistic scenario HK$1.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nayuki Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.03, about +56% upside versus a price of HK$0.6600 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.8937, optimistic scenario HK$1.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nayuki Holdings Ltd (2150)?
Nayuki Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$4.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2150?
The net profit margin of Nayuki Holdings Ltd is about −5.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
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