Nayuki Holdings Ltd (2150) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$1.1B (≈ $139M) · ISIN KYG6432S1066
What is Nayuki Holdings Ltd really worth?
A solid business, trading 36% below our fair value of HK$1.03.
As of Sep 1, 2026, the fair value of Nayuki Holdings Ltd is HK$1.03 per share against a price of HK$0.6600, so the fair value sits 56% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price −9.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.8937). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.6200 – HK$17.12 · fair‑value band HK$0.8937 – HK$1.40 · the HK$0.6600 price screens below the HK$1.03 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Nayuki Holdings Ltd (2150) currently trades at HK$0.6600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.03, implying the stock looks roughly 36.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$6.15 per share, and 14 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$0.6600 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.44, and 0 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nayuki Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$4.3B at a net margin of −5.5%. Revenue declined 9.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −6.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$567M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.8937 (bear case) to HK$1.40 (bull case); at HK$0.6600, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 56%, 2150 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$6.15) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.44). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Nayuki Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates a chain of teahouses in the People's Republic of China. It sells freshly made tea drinks, baked goods, and other products, as well as ready-to-drink beverages.
Full company description
Nayuki Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates a chain of teahouses in the People's Republic of China. It sells freshly made tea drinks, baked goods, and other products, as well as ready-to-drink beverages. The company also provides store operations management, supply chain management, and other services; and engages in franchise operations. It also sells flavored bottled sparkling water. Nayuki Holdings Limited was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nayuki Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 4.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was −239M CNY in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Restaurants · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $260.06 | $149.03 | −43% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $107.26 | $35.83 | −67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $38.03 | $17.92 | −53% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $153.31 | $58.17 | −62% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | −65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.86 | $173.68 | −21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.60 | $54.27 | +24% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $198.99 | $104.89 | −47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | −75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $341.08 | $227.31 | −33% |
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