NVC Lighting Holding Ltd (2222) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$335M (≈ $42.7M) · ISIN KYG6700A1004

What is NVC Lighting Holding Ltd really worth?

NL NVC Lighting Holding Ltd 2222 · HK

PriceHK$0.6200

Fair ValueHK$0.4000

Upside−35.5%

Quality67/100

A solid business, but trading 55% above our fair value of HK$0.4000.

As of Aug 29, 2026, the fair value of NVC Lighting Holding Ltd is HK$0.4000 per share against a price of HK$0.6200, so the fair value sits 35% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −37.6 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 5.4% net margin

!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)

!Narrow moat 20/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on past: 10 out of 100

Evidence: Low Range HK$0.3500 – HK$0.5000

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.5000). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.6000 – HK$2.08 · fair‑value band HK$0.3500 – HK$0.5000 · the HK$0.6200 price screens above the HK$0.4000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

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Analysis

NVC Lighting Holding Ltd (2222) currently trades at HK$0.6200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.4000, implying the stock looks roughly 55.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$0.6200 per share, and 5 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$0.6200 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.2000, and 17 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, NVC Lighting Holding Ltd generated revenue of HK$223M at a net margin of 5.4%. Revenue declined 2.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$106M. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.3500 (bear case) to HK$0.5000 (bull case); at HK$0.6200, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −35%, 2222 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0205 per share, which is 5.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF best evidence HK$0.5200 HK$0.6100 HK$0.7600 82

Growth DCF HK$0.5300 HK$0.6100 HK$0.7400 80

Owner Earnings HK$0.5700 HK$0.6700 HK$0.8400 78

All 22 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF best evidence HK$0.5200 HK$0.6100 HK$0.7600 82

Owner Earnings HK$0.5700 HK$0.6700 HK$0.8400 78

5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.4100 HK$0.4600 HK$0.5300 74

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.5800 HK$0.7500 HK$0.9700 76

5Y P/E Exit HK$0.5400 HK$0.6700 HK$0.8400 72

10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.4600 HK$0.4900 HK$0.5300 68

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.5500 HK$0.6600 HK$0.7700 70

10Y P/E Exit HK$0.5300 HK$0.6100 HK$0.7000 65

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$0.1600 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2200 67

EPV HK$0.2700 HK$0.2800 HK$0.2900 74

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$0.3700 HK$0.4900 HK$0.6200 63

P/S Multiple HK$0.3000 HK$0.4000 HK$0.5000 58

P/B Multiple HK$0.3000 HK$0.4000 HK$0.5000 55

EV/EBIT HK$0.3700 HK$0.4200 HK$0.4700 66

EV/EBITDA HK$0.6900 HK$0.8400 HK$1.00 67

EV/Revenue HK$0.3300 HK$0.3800 HK$0.4200 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4700 HK$0.6200 HK$0.9300 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$0.5300 HK$0.6100 HK$0.7400 80

Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.4100 HK$0.4700 HK$0.5400 74

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$0.6300 HK$0.5900 HK$0.4400 76

ROIC Compounder HK$0.2700 HK$0.2800 HK$0.2900 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.2600 HK$0.3700 HK$0.4900 67

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$0.6200) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.2000). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 3.7 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 0.20 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.0300 price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.7

Net margin 5.3% FY2025

Return on equity 2.6% TTM

Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2% avg 5y

More key figures

Profitability

Operating margin −0.2% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$223M TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) −2.0% 3y avg −51.3%

EPS growth (YoY) +98.7%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$18.2M FY2025

Net cash HK$106M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34

Profitability 25

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 57

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 62

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 92

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 96

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 69

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 24

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 8

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 90

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

NVC International Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of lamps, luminaries, lamp transformers, lighting electronic products, and other appliances in China, the United States, the People Republic of China, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers LED lighting fixtures; and personalized pendants, chandeliers, and other lighting solutions for luxury residences, hotels, superyachts, and restaurants. It also provides wall switches, outlets, and converters; and switch boxes, low-voltage electrical devices, electrical tapes, doorbells, and smart door locks. In addition, the company manufactures and sells light tubes for energy-saving lamps and related products, electric lighting equipment; and the trading of lamps, luminaries, and other lighting products. It operates through NVC Lighting, ETI Lighting, Dernier and Hamlyn, AURA, and NVC Electric Labs brand names. The company was formerly known as NVC Lighting Holding Limited and changed its name to NVC International Holdings Limited in January 2020. NVC International Holdings Limited was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Tai Po, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

NVC Lighting Holding Ltd reported revenue of $223M in FY2025 versus $2.4B in FY2021, a compound −44.7%/yr. Reported net income was $11.9M in FY2025, compounding +19.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100

Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$223M

Latest YoY

−5.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−51.3%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−37.6%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (18Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+3.0%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

−44.2% · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share−44.2%

Dividend yield0.0%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −44.2% vs 10Y −3.5%, flattening

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4.6% (2020) → 2.6% (2025) · falling

Worst earnings drop1,152% (2022) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

Revenue −44.7%/yr

FY21 $2.4B

FY22 $1.9B

FY23 $236M

FY24 $237M

FY25 $223M

Net income +19.6%/yr

FY21 $5.8M

FY22 −$462M

FY23 $35.7M

FY24 −$17.4M

FY25 $11.9M

2222 screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Midea Group →

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NVC Lighting Holding Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.4000 −55%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NVC Lighting Holding Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2222.HK

Peer Group

Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 317 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 67 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −36% · Below median

Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median

Return on assets 1% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%

Revenue growth −2% · Below median

Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 0.09× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 0.19× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/FCF 2.3× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 21

FUTURE0 · sector 0

PAST10 · sector 19

HEALTH99 · sector 98

DIVIDEND0 · sector 58

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is NVC Lighting Holding Ltd (2222) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.4000 versus a price of HK$0.6200, about −35% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 2222?

Our model-based fair value for NVC Lighting Holding Ltd is HK$0.4000 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.6200.

What is the quality score of 2222?

NVC Lighting Holding Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for NVC Lighting Holding Ltd (2222)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.4000 (as of Aug 29, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.3500, optimistic scenario HK$0.5000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the NVC Lighting Holding Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$0.4000, about −35% upside versus a price of HK$0.6200 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.3500, optimistic scenario HK$0.5000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of NVC Lighting Holding Ltd (2222)?

NVC Lighting Holding Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$223M (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 2222?

The net profit margin of NVC Lighting Holding Ltd is about 5.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

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