Smit Holdings Ltd (2239) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Smit Holdings Ltd HK$1.32, price HK$1.30, upside +1.5%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5021 – HK$4.98 · fair‑value band HK$0.8800 – HK$1.66 · the HK$1.30 price screens below the HK$1.32 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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SMIT Holdings Limited designs, develops, and markets security devices primarily for pay TV broadcasting access worldwide. It operates through four segments: CAM, Intelligent sense, and other businesses segments.
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SMIT Holdings Limited designs, develops, and markets security devices primarily for pay TV broadcasting access worldwide. It operates through four segments: CAM, Intelligent sense, and other businesses segments. The company develops and sells conditional access modules (CAM) that enable secure distribution and delivery of digital content to television; and rapid hardware-based verification systems and software. It also develops and sells smart sensing-oriented products and solutions; and offers design services, including cloud platform and supporting services. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Smit Holdings Ltd (2239) currently trades at HK$1.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.32, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.5%).
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$0.8800 (bear) to HK$1.66 (bull), the price of HK$1.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Smit Holdings Ltd reported revenue of $14.7M in FY2025 versus $36.3M in FY2021, a compound −20.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$5.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$422M (≈ $53.8M) · P/S ratio 22.1 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0500 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −36.0% · Return on equity −3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% · Operating margin −47.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at 2%, 2239 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.8800Fair Value HK$1.32Bull HK$1.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.6/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −13.8% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−21.3% (2019) → −108.7% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 337 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+1.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−36.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−47.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth43.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
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Is Smit Holdings Ltd (2239) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.32 versus a price of HK$1.30, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 2239?
Our model-based fair value for Smit Holdings Ltd is HK$1.32 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.30.
What is the quality score of 2239?
Smit Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.32 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.8800, optimistic scenario HK$1.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Smit Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.32, about +2% upside versus a price of HK$1.30 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$0.8800, optimistic scenario HK$1.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
Smit Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.7M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Smit Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Smit Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Smit Holdings Ltd it is HK$1.32 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.30. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Smit Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2239 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.30, fair value HK$1.32, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2239?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.32). For Smit Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.0200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Smit Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Smit Holdings Ltd at about HK$422M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.30; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2239?
Our models span a range for Smit Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.8800, base HK$1.32, optimistic HK$1.66 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
Balance-sheet figures for Smit Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −3.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2239 from its 52-week high?
Smit Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.30, about 40% below its 52-week high of HK$2.18 and 87% above the low of HK$0.6962 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Smit Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Smit Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.30, calculated fair value HK$1.32 (+2%), Quality Score 48/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2239 calculated?
We run Smit Holdings Ltd through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Smit Holdings Ltd currently trades 2 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.30. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.32, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Smit Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.8800 to HK$1.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Smit Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
The market capitalisation of Smit Holdings Ltd is HK$422M (≈ $53.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Smit Holdings Ltd is 22.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
Earnings per share at Smit Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
The dividend yield of Smit Holdings Ltd is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
The net margin of Smit Holdings Ltd is −36.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Smit Holdings Ltd is −3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Smit Holdings Ltd is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
The operating margin of Smit Holdings Ltd is −47.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
Revenue at Smit Holdings Ltd is growing +43.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Smit Holdings Ltd (2239)?
Earnings per share at Smit Holdings Ltd are growing +409% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Smit Holdings Ltd (2239) generate?
The free cash flow of Smit Holdings Ltd is −$5.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Smit Holdings Ltd (2239) hold?
Smit Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, $17.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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