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Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd (2286) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$84.6M (≈ $10.8M) · ISIN KYG2087W1042

What is Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd really worth?

CX Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd 2286 · HK
PriceHK$0.3650
Fair ValueHK$0.1393
Upside−61.8%
Quality43/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 162% above our fair value of HK$0.1393.

As of Aug 24, 2026, the fair value of Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd is HK$0.1393 per share against a price of HK$0.3650, so the fair value sits 62% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −33.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -177.4% net margin
!Trails peers (3/10)
!Narrow moat 2/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Low Range HK$0.1106 – HK$0.1713

Fair value as of: Aug 24, 2026

From 7 valuation models · updated 13 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 24, 2026, revised from HK$0.1399 to HK$0.1393 (−0.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −5.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1713). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$1.92 HK$0.0970 Fair Value HK$0.1393 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0970 – HK$1.92 · fair‑value band HK$0.1106 – HK$0.1713 · the HK$0.3650 price screens above the HK$0.1393 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd (2286) currently trades at HK$0.3650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1393, implying the stock looks roughly 162.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 7 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$153M. Revenue declined 46.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −24.9%. Net debt stands at HK$2.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1106 (bear case) to HK$0.1713 (bull case); at HK$0.3650, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −62%, 2286 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$1.21 HK$1.48 HK$1.93 82
Growth DCF HK$1.24 HK$1.49 HK$1.88 80
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.24 HK$1.71 HK$2.40 73
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$1.21 HK$1.48 HK$1.93 82
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.24 HK$1.71 HK$2.40 73
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.20 HK$1.53 HK$1.88 68
Multiples
EV/Revenue HK$1.37 HK$1.91 HK$2.45 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.6600 HK$0.8900 HK$1.32 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.24 HK$1.49 HK$1.88 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.24 HK$1.72 HK$2.29 73

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$1.91) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.8900). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 0.55 TTM
EPS (TTM) HK$−0.1500
Net margin −177% TTM
Return on equity −24.9% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6% avg 5y
Operating margin −128% TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$153M TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −46.1% 3y avg −49.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +445%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$89.7M FY2025
Net debt HK$2.5B FY2025 · ≈ 28.0 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 7
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 1
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 87
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 96
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Chen Xing Development Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the development and sale of residential and commercial properties in The People's Republic of China. The company is also involved in the sale of construction materials; property construction activities; and provision of real estate brokerage and exhibition services.

Full company description

Chen Xing Development Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the development and sale of residential and commercial properties in The People's Republic of China. The company is also involved in the sale of construction materials; property construction activities; and provision of real estate brokerage and exhibition services. Its portfolio includes mid-rise, high-rise, townhouses, multi-story garden and SOHO apartments, retail outlets, hotels, parking spaces, and ancillary facilities. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Jinzhong, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd reported revenue of 154M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound −44.0%/yr. Reported net income was −271M CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 15/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$154M
Latest YoY
−87.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−49.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−33.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (13Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.9%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
28.6% (2020) → −80.3% (2025)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue −44.0%/yr
FY21 1.6B CNY
FY22 1.2B CNY
FY23 300M CNY
FY24 1.2B CNY
FY25 154M CNY
Net income
FY21 78.7M CNY
FY22 10.4M CNY
FY23 −152M CNY
FY24 −162M CNY
FY25 −271M CNY

2286 screens 162% overvalued. Compare with Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2286.HK

Peer Group

Real Estate - Development · 566 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −62% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −177% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −128% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth −46% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.05× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.07× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 45
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST0 · sector 11
HEALTH97 · sector 85
DIVIDEND0 · sector 54

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 24, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 80016 HK$109.70 HK$88.93 −19%
China Resources Land Limited 1109 HK$35.24 HK$72.16 +105%
Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM 71,700 VND 109,431 VND +53%
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$47.34 HK$68.85 +45%
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.20 $1.52 −81%
DLF Limited DLF ₹667.10 ₹170.24 −74%
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$13.76 HK$22.92 +67%
Macrotech Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,244 ₹583.42 −53%
Sino Land Company 0083 HK$10.33 HK$6.99 −32%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI 5,925 IDR 1,325 IDR −78%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd (2286) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1393 versus a price of HK$0.3650, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2286?
Our model-based fair value for Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd is HK$0.1393 (as of Aug 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3650.
What is the quality score of 2286?
Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd (2286)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1393 (as of Aug 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1106, optimistic scenario HK$0.1713. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1393, about −62% upside versus a price of HK$0.3650 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1106, optimistic scenario HK$0.1713. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd (2286)?
Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$153M (latest available figure, as of Aug 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2286?
The net profit margin of Chen Xing Dvlp Hldg Ltd is about −177.4%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
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