Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co stock SAR 20.62, price SAR 32.48, upside -36.5%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 23.73 SAR – 64.93 SAR · fair‑value band 18.72 SAR – 22.18 SAR · the 32.48 SAR price screens above the 20.62 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
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Yanbu National Petrochemical Company manufactures and sells petrochemical products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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The company's products portfolio includes ethylene, propylene, mono ethylene glycol, di ethylene glycol, tri ethylene glycol, polypropylene, low linear density polyethylene, high density polyethylene, butene 1, butene 2, methyl tert-butyl ether, benzene, and toluene-xylene-benzene blend.
Its products are used for packaging, textile, cast film, pipes for gas and water transportation, blown films with paper-like quality, suitable for counter bags, carrier bags and wrapping films, extrusion, stretched tapes for woven fabrics, staple fibers for stitching yarn, spun-bond women and non-woven high speed, as well as injection molding.
The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Yanbu, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Yanbu National Petrochemical Company is a subsidiary of Saudi Basic Industries Corporation.
Stock analysis
Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290) currently trades at 32.48 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 20.62 SAR, 36.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of 17.84 SAR per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the 32.48 SAR price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 2.39 SAR, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 18.72 SAR (bear) to 22.18 SAR (bull), the price of 32.48 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Yanbu National Petrochemical Co reported revenue of 5.6B SAR in FY2025 versus 7.4B SAR in FY2021, a compound −6.8%/yr. Reported net income was 79.1M SAR in FY2025, compounding −52.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 18.3B SAR (≈ $4.9B) Mid · P/E ratio 62.5 · P/S ratio 3.10 · EPS (TTM) 0.5200 SAR · Dividend yield 6.2% · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −37%, 2290 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (0.9900 SAR to 57.29 SAR). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear18.72 SARFair Value 20.62 SARBull22.18 SAR
Price 32.48 SAR · Upside -36.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.1% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−34.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−40.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−40.8% vs −28.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 1%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.3% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 339 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−36.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)14.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)34.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.2% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)62.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.70× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.10× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow21.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA15.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 63
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yanbu National Petrochemical Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2290
Frequently asked questions
Is Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 20.62 SAR versus a price of 32.48 SAR, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2290?
Our model-based fair value for Yanbu National Petrochemical Co is 20.62 SAR (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 32.48 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2290?
Yanbu National Petrochemical Co has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 20.62 SAR (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 18.72 SAR, optimistic scenario 22.18 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yanbu National Petrochemical Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 20.62 SAR, about −37% upside versus a price of 32.48 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 18.72 SAR, optimistic scenario 22.18 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
Yanbu National Petrochemical Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.9B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
Does Yanbu National Petrochemical Co pay a dividend?
Yanbu National Petrochemical Co currently shows a dividend yield of 6.16% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 14, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yanbu National Petrochemical Co would have to grow free cash flow by +10.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.2 % per year. As of Oct 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2290 use?
Our models discount Yanbu National Petrochemical Co at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yanbu National Petrochemical Co that is +10.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yanbu National Petrochemical Co grew +2.2 % a year. The price currently implies +10.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (+10.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.60 %: that much free cash flow Yanbu National Petrochemical Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yanbu National Petrochemical Co it is 20.62 SAR per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of 32.48 SAR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yanbu National Petrochemical Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, 2290 trades above its calculated fair value: price 32.48 SAR, fair value 20.62 SAR, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2290?
No. The price is what the market pays today (32.48 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (20.62 SAR). For Yanbu National Petrochemical Co the two are 11.86 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yanbu National Petrochemical Co worth?
The market values Yanbu National Petrochemical Co at about 18.3B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is 32.48 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 20.62 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2290?
Our models span a range for Yanbu National Petrochemical Co: cautious scenario 18.72 SAR, base 20.62 SAR, optimistic 22.18 SAR per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price 32.48 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2290?
Yanbu National Petrochemical Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 62.5 (as of Oct 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 20.62 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 15.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity 2.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2290 from its 52-week high?
Yanbu National Petrochemical Co trades at 32.48 SAR, about 12% below its 52-week high of 36.88 SAR and 37% above the low of 23.73 SAR (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 20.62 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yanbu National Petrochemical Co?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Rongsheng Petrochemical Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yanbu National Petrochemical Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price 32.48 SAR, calculated fair value 20.62 SAR (−37%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2290 calculated?
We run Yanbu National Petrochemical Co through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 20.62 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Yanbu National Petrochemical Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was 32.48 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 20.62 SAR, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yanbu National Petrochemical Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (22.18 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290) come from?
Earnings per share at Yanbu National Petrochemical Co grew −19.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.9 %, EBIT margin −18.7 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
The market capitalisation of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co is 18.3B SAR (≈ $4.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co is 3.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
Earnings per share at Yanbu National Petrochemical Co are 0.5200 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 62.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
The dividend yield of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co is 6.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
The net margin of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co is 4.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
The operating margin of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
Revenue at Yanbu National Petrochemical Co is growing +34.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
Earnings per share at Yanbu National Petrochemical Co are growing +475% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290) carry?
The net debt of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co is 16.3M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 14, 2026