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Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · SA · Market cap 17.2B SAR (≈ $4.6B) · ISIN SA000A0HNF36

What is Yanbu National Petrochemical Co really worth?

YN Yanbu National Petrochemical Co 2290 · SR
Price33.88 SAR
Fair Value4.90 SAR
Upside−85.5% ⚠
Quality56/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A solid business, but trading 592% above our fair value of 4.90 SAR.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.9% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Narrow moat 35/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 11 out of 100

For context

·5.90% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range 3.23 SAR – 6.12 SAR

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 5, 2026, revised from 2.42 SAR to 4.90 SAR (+102.5%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +10.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (6.12 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (3.23 SAR to 6.12 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

66.91 SAR 24.45 SAR Fair Value 4.90 SAR May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 24.45 SAR – 66.91 SAR · fair‑value band 3.23 SAR – 6.12 SAR · the 33.88 SAR price screens above the 4.90 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290) currently trades at 33.88 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.90 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 591.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of 20.12 SAR per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the 33.88 SAR price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 1.08 SAR, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Yanbu National Petrochemical Co generated revenue of 5.9B SAR at a net margin of 4.9%. Revenue grew 34.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.7%. Net debt stands at 16.3M SAR. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 3.23 SAR (bear case) to 6.12 SAR (bull case); at 33.88 SAR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −86%, 2290 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (1.08 SAR to 23.06 SAR). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 14.82 SAR 20.51 SAR 31.06 SAR 80
Growth DCF 15.49 SAR 21.02 SAR 30.48 SAR 79
Owner Earnings 11.96 SAR 16.53 SAR 25.00 SAR 76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 14.82 SAR 20.51 SAR 31.06 SAR 80
Owner Earnings 11.96 SAR 16.53 SAR 25.00 SAR 76
5Y Revenue Exit 6.61 SAR 7.52 SAR 8.80 SAR 74
5Y EBITDA Exit 13.28 SAR 19.07 SAR 26.73 SAR 75
5Y P/E Exit 6.84 SAR 7.92 SAR 9.25 SAR 72
10Y Revenue Exit 9.69 SAR 10.66 SAR 11.50 SAR 68
10Y EBITDA Exit 13.77 SAR 17.80 SAR 22.03 SAR 70
10Y P/E Exit 9.86 SAR 10.90 SAR 11.77 SAR 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 0.9600 SAR 1.17 SAR 1.31 SAR 67
EPV 0.9700 SAR 1.08 SAR 1.18 SAR 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 18.38 SAR 20.12 SAR 22.77 SAR 69
DDM Multi-Stage 18.38 SAR 23.06 SAR 29.63 SAR 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 1.79 SAR 2.39 SAR 2.99 SAR 63
P/S Multiple 1.79 SAR 2.39 SAR 2.99 SAR 58
P/B Multiple 1.79 SAR 2.39 SAR 2.99 SAR 55
EV/EBIT 1.77 SAR 2.26 SAR 2.75 SAR 66
EV/EBITDA 14.34 SAR 19.02 SAR 23.70 SAR 67
EV/Revenue 1.58 SAR 2.12 SAR 2.66 SAR 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 9.55 SAR 12.80 SAR 19.11 SAR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 15.49 SAR 21.02 SAR 30.48 SAR 79
Rev-Margin DCF 6.61 SAR 7.86 SAR 9.60 SAR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 13.03 SAR 12.21 SAR 8.70 SAR 76
ROIC Compounder 0.9700 SAR 1.08 SAR 1.18 SAR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 1.28 SAR 1.82 SAR 2.37 SAR 67

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (20.12 SAR) versus Earnings-Based (1.08 SAR). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 242.0
P/S ratio 3.42 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 0.1400 SAR price ÷ EPS = P/E 242.0
Dividend yield 5.9%
Net margin 1.4% FY2025
Return on equity 2.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 14.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 5.9B SAR TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +34.8% 3y avg −7.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +475%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 840M SAR FY2025
Net debt 16.3M SAR FY2025 · ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 16
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 62
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 54
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Yanbu National Petrochemical Company manufactures and sells petrochemical products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company's products portfolio includes ethylene, propylene, mono ethylene glycol, di ethylene glycol, tri ethylene glycol, polypropylene, low linear density polyethylene, high density polyethylene, butene 1, butene 2, methyl tert-butyl …

Full company description

Yanbu National Petrochemical Company manufactures and sells petrochemical products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company's products portfolio includes ethylene, propylene, mono ethylene glycol, di ethylene glycol, tri ethylene glycol, polypropylene, low linear density polyethylene, high density polyethylene, butene 1, butene 2, methyl tert-butyl ether, benzene, and toluene-xylene-benzene blend. Its products are used for packaging, textile, cast film, pipes for gas and water transportation, blown films with paper-like quality, suitable for counter bags, carrier bags and wrapping films, extrusion, stretched tapes for woven fabrics, staple fibers for stitching yarn, spun-bond women and non-woven high speed, as well as injection molding. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Yanbu, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Yanbu National Petrochemical Company is a subsidiary of Saudi Basic Industries Corporation.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Yanbu National Petrochemical Co reported revenue of 5.6B SAR in FY2025 versus 7.4B SAR in FY2021, a compound −6.8%/yr. Reported net income was 79.1M SAR in FY2025, compounding −52.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
5.6B SAR
Latest YoY
−9.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−34.9% (−40.8 + 5.9)
Revenue −6.8%/yr
FY21 7.4B SAR
FY22 7.0B SAR
FY23 4.5B SAR
FY24 6.2B SAR
FY25 5.6B SAR
Net income −52.3%/yr
FY21 1.5B SAR
FY22 414M SAR
FY23 −485M SAR
FY24 420M SAR
FY25 79.1M SAR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −19.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share −2.9 %

of which total revenue −2.9 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin −18.7 %
Tax rate −2.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +4.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

2290 screens 592% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Basic Industries Corporation →

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Yanbu National Petrochemical Co · Fair Value
4.90 SAR −592%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yanbu National Petrochemical Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2290

Peer Group

Chemicals · 341 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −86% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 35% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.9% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 242.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.60× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.93× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 5.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 14.2× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 22
PAST11 · sector 20
HEALTH100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND100 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation 2010 49.50 SAR 18.13 SAR −63%
A. Schulman, Inc SLMNP $849.00 $203.64 −76%
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 ¥24.49 ¥20.17 −18%
Dow Inc DOW $30.51 $21.03 −31%
Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 ¥41.32 ¥21.62 −48%
Rongsheng Petrochemical Co 002493 ¥13.76 ¥2.39 −83%
Zangge Mining Company 000408 ¥78.04 ¥20.99 −73%
Ganfeng Lithium Group 002460 ¥52.53 ¥16.17 −69%
PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT 1,855 IDR 1,584 IDR −15%
Hengli Petrochemical Co 600346 ¥18.87 ¥17.09 −9%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.90 SAR versus a price of 33.88 SAR, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2290?
Our model-based fair value for Yanbu National Petrochemical Co is 4.90 SAR (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 33.88 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2290?
Yanbu National Petrochemical Co has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (2290)?
Yanbu National Petrochemical Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.9B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2290?
The net profit margin of Yanbu National Petrochemical Co is about 4.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Yanbu National Petrochemical Co pay a dividend?
Yanbu National Petrochemical Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.90% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
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