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SMC Electric Ltd (2381) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$488M (≈ $62.2M) · ISIN KYG823071025

What is SMC Electric Ltd really worth?

SE SMC Electric Ltd 2381 · HK
PriceHK$0.2440
Fair ValueHK$0.0800
Upside−67.2%
Quality56/100

A solid business, but trading 205% above our fair value of HK$0.0800.

As of Aug 27, 2026, the fair value of SMC Electric Ltd is HK$0.0800 per share against a price of HK$0.2440, so the fair value sits 67% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.4% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 29 out of 100

For context

·4.10% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$0.0600 – HK$0.0900

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 10 days ago

Share price −11.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0900). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.3500 HK$0.0505 Fair Value HK$0.0800 Jun 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0505 – HK$0.3500 · fair‑value band HK$0.0600 – HK$0.0900 · the HK$0.2440 price screens above the HK$0.0800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

SMC Electric Ltd (2381) currently trades at HK$0.2440, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0800, implying the stock looks roughly 205.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$0.0800 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$0.2440 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0400, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, SMC Electric Ltd generated revenue of HK$218M at a net margin of 4.4%. Revenue declined 34.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$67.3M. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0600 (bear case) to HK$0.0900 (bull case); at HK$0.2440, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 174% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −67%, 2381 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$0.0500 HK$0.0600 HK$0.0600 80
Growth DCF HK$0.0500 HK$0.0600 HK$0.0600 77
Residual Income HK$0.0500 HK$0.0500 HK$0.0500 76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$0.0500 HK$0.0600 HK$0.0600 80
Owner Earnings HK$0.0500 HK$0.0600 HK$0.0600 75
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.0500 HK$0.0500 HK$0.0600 71
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.0600 HK$0.0700 HK$0.0900 74
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.0800 HK$0.1100 HK$0.1400 69
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.0500 HK$0.0500 HK$0.0600 66
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.0600 HK$0.0600 HK$0.0700 67
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.0700 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1000 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.0300 HK$0.0400 HK$0.0400 67
EPV HK$0.0400 HK$0.0400 HK$0.0400 70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.0800 HK$0.0800 HK$0.0900 69
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.0800 HK$0.0900 HK$0.1100 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.0800 HK$0.1000 HK$0.1300 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.0600 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1000 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.0600 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1000 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.0600 HK$0.0600 HK$0.0700 63
EV/EBITDA HK$0.0700 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1000 64
EV/Revenue HK$0.0500 HK$0.0500 HK$0.0600 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0300 HK$0.0400 HK$0.0600 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.0500 HK$0.0600 HK$0.0600 77
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.0500 HK$0.0600 HK$0.0600 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.0500 HK$0.0500 HK$0.0500 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.0400 HK$0.0400 HK$0.0400 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.0600 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1000 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$0.0800) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.0400). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 2.71 TTM
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100
Dividend yield 4.1% payout 100%
Net margin 4.4% FY2025
Return on equity 7.3% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin −6.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$218M TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −34.1% 3y avg −5.1%
EPS growth (YoY) −0.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$4.0M FY2025
Net cash HK$67.3M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 2
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 32
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 87
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 76
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

SMC Electric Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells electric tools and fans in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Hong Kong, Other regions of the PRC, Australia, Europe, Americas, and Africa. It operates through two segments: SMC and Non-SMC. The company designs, develops, and trades in electrical fans and tools under the SMC brand.

Full company description

SMC Electric Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells electric tools and fans in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Hong Kong, Other regions of the PRC, Australia, Europe, Americas, and Africa. It operates through two segments: SMC and Non-SMC. The company designs, develops, and trades in electrical fans and tools under the SMC brand. It also offers manufactures a range of rechargeable electric tools including cordless fans, work lights and vacuum cleaners, as fans, including ceiling, wall-mounted, stand up, and orbital fans. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Chai Wan, Hong Kong. SMC Electric Limited is a subsidiary of Shell Electric Holdings Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

SMC Electric Ltd reported revenue of HK$218M in FY2025 versus HK$230M in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$9.5M in FY2025, compounding −23.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 32/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$218M
Latest YoY
−15.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (9Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−19.5% · in HKD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−23.6%
Dividend yield4.1%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −23.6% vs 10Y −11.4%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18.4% (2020) → 1.3% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop64% (2025) · in HKD
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.0%/yr over ~7Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue −1.4%/yr
FY21 HK$230M
FY22 HK$254M
FY23 HK$233M
FY24 HK$257M
FY25 HK$218M
Net income −23.9%/yr
FY21 HK$28.3M
FY22 HK$22.4M
FY23 HK$20.8M
FY24 HK$26.4M
FY25 HK$9.5M

2381 screens 205% overvalued. Compare with Midea Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SMC Electric Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2381.HK

Peer Group

Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 317 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −67% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) −7% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth −34% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.1% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.50× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.29× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 15.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 21
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST29 · sector 19
HEALTH0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND82 · sector 58

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Midea Group 000333 ¥86.98 ¥99.66 +15%
Gree Electric Appliances, Inc 000651 ¥41.58 ¥86.91 +109%
Haier Smart Home Co 600690 ¥21.79 ¥36.04 +65%
King Slide Works Co 2059 12,500 TWD 1,917 TWD −85%
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co 603268 ¥173.26 ¥38.83 −78%
SharkNinja, Inc SN $181.24 $89.07 −51%
Somnigroup International Inc SGI $63.65 $31.69 −50%
Mohawk Industries, Inc MHK $131.70 $119.26 −9%
Hisense Home Appliances Group 000921 ¥26.12 ¥50.62 +94%
Alliance Laundry Holdings ALH $22.73 $7.74 −66%

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Frequently asked questions

Is SMC Electric Ltd (2381) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0800 versus a price of HK$0.2440, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2381?
Our model-based fair value for SMC Electric Ltd is HK$0.0800 (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2440.
What is the quality score of 2381?
SMC Electric Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SMC Electric Ltd (2381)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0800 (as of Aug 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0600, optimistic scenario HK$0.0900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SMC Electric Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0800, about −67% upside versus a price of HK$0.2440 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0600, optimistic scenario HK$0.0900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SMC Electric Ltd (2381)?
SMC Electric Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$218M (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2381?
The net profit margin of SMC Electric Ltd is about 4.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does SMC Electric Ltd pay a dividend?
SMC Electric Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.10% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 27, 2026).
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