Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles HK$8.31, price HK$4.13, upside +101.2%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the self-operated noodle restaurant and manages franchise operations in Mainland China. It also provides catering management service. The company operates under the brand name of Xiao Noodles.
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Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the self-operated noodle restaurant and manages franchise operations in Mainland China. It also provides catering management service. The company operates under the brand name of Xiao Noodles. It serves restaurant customers, franchisees, and businesses requiring catering and supply chain solutions primarily in the PRC (People's Republic of China). The company was formerly known as Guangzhou Meet Xiaomian Catering Management Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Co., Ltd. in September 2023. Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408) currently trades at HK$4.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.31, implying the stock looks roughly 50.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$9.94 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$4.13 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.9300, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$5.82 (bear) to HK$10.80 (bull), the price of HK$4.13 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Guangzhou Xiao Noodles reported revenue of 1.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 418M CNY in FY2022, a compound +57.1%/yr. Reported net income was 106M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.9B (≈ $374M) · P/E ratio 16.3 · P/S ratio 1.07 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity 22.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 101%, 2408 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$5.82Fair Value HK$8.31Bull HK$10.80
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0300 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+40.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.1%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+52.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+52.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 10%
2025 sits 99% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 214 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+101.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth46.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
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Is Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.31 versus a price of HK$4.13, about +101% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2408?
Our model-based fair value for Guangzhou Xiao Noodles is HK$8.31 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$4.13.
What is the quality score of 2408?
Guangzhou Xiao Noodles has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$8.31 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.82, optimistic scenario HK$10.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangzhou Xiao Noodles stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$8.31, about +101% upside versus a price of HK$4.13 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$5.82, optimistic scenario HK$10.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
Guangzhou Xiao Noodles reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Guangzhou Xiao Noodles pay a dividend?
Guangzhou Xiao Noodles currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guangzhou Xiao Noodles would have to grow free cash flow by -7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +57.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2408 use?
Our models discount Guangzhou Xiao Noodles at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guangzhou Xiao Noodles that is -7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Guangzhou Xiao Noodles grew +57.1 % a year. The price currently implies -7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (-7.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.83 %: that much free cash flow Guangzhou Xiao Noodles produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangzhou Xiao Noodles it is HK$8.31 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$4.13. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangzhou Xiao Noodles stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2408 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$4.13, fair value HK$8.31, a gap of about +101% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2408?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$4.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$8.31). For Guangzhou Xiao Noodles the two are HK$4.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangzhou Xiao Noodles worth?
The market values Guangzhou Xiao Noodles at about HK$2.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$4.13; our models calculate a fair value of HK$8.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2408?
Our models span a range for Guangzhou Xiao Noodles: cautious scenario HK$5.82, base HK$8.31, optimistic HK$10.80 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$4.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2408?
Guangzhou Xiao Noodles trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$8.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.1, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 8.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 22.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangzhou Xiao Noodles?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangzhou Xiao Noodles stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$4.13, calculated fair value HK$8.31 (+101%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2408 calculated?
We run Guangzhou Xiao Noodles through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$8.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangzhou Xiao Noodles currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$4.13. Our model-based fair value is HK$8.31, about +101% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangzhou Xiao Noodles right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$5.82). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$5.82 to HK$10.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
The market capitalisation of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles is HK$2.9B (≈ $374M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles is 1.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Xiao Noodles are HK$0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
The dividend yield of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles is 0.7% (payout 42.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
The net margin of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles is 6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles is 22.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles is 5.1% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
The operating margin of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
Revenue at Guangzhou Xiao Noodles is growing +46.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +57.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Xiao Noodles are growing +59.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guangzhou Xiao Noodles (2408) carry?
The net debt of Guangzhou Xiao Noodles is 7.8M CNY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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