XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$1.2B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.5600 to HK$0.3600 (−35.7%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −27.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 20% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
33‑month range HK$0.4450 – HK$14.91 · fair‑value band HK$0.2700 – HK$0.4500 · the HK$0.4500 price screens above the HK$0.3600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473) currently trades at HK$0.4500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3600, implying the stock looks roughly 20.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, XXF Group Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.6B at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue grew 42.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.4%. Net debt stands at HK$2.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2700 (bear case) to HK$0.4500 (bull case); at HK$0.4500, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -20%, 2473 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based (HK$0.4400) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.0200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 23 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
XXF Group Holdings Limited, an automobile retailer, provides automobile finance lease services through self-operated sales outlets in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
XXF Group Holdings Limited, an automobile retailer, provides automobile finance lease services through self-operated sales outlets in the People's Republic of China. The company sells non-luxury automobiles on direct finance lease, as well as car on a one-off basis; trades in automobiles; and offers automobile operating lease services and other automobile-related services. It also provides information technology services. XXF Group Holdings Limited was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Fuzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
XXF Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.8B in FY2025 versus HK$1.2B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$44.7M in FY2025, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2021.
2473 screens 20% overvalued. Compare with Visa Inc →
Peer Group
Credit Services · 333 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Inc V | $359.42 | $198.27 | -45% |
| Mastercard Incorporated MA | $561.44 | $221.87 | -60% |
| Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE | ₹1,094 | ₹397.61 | -64% |
| Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN | ₹1,117 | ₹553.83 | -50% |
| Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company CHOLAFIN | ₹1,918 | ₹796.52 | -58% |
| Tata Capital Limited TATACAP | ₹367.05 | ₹149.40 | -59% |
| Power Finance Corporation PFC | ₹376.50 | ₹615.85 | +64% |
| Muthoot Finance Limited MUTHOOTFIN | ₹2,876 | ₹3,429 | +19% |
| Indian Railway Finance Corporation IRFC | ₹88.35 | ₹69.72 | -21% |
| REC Limited RECLTD | ₹346.00 | ₹692.00 | +100% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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