XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of XXF Group Holdings Ltd HK$0.37, price HK$0.39, upside -3.9%, quality 20 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
35‑month range HK$0.3750 – HK$14.91 · fair‑value band HK$0.2700 – HK$0.4600 · the HK$0.3850 price screens above the HK$0.3700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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XXF Group Holdings Limited, an automobile retailer, provides automobile finance lease services through self-operated sales outlets in the People's Republic of China.
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XXF Group Holdings Limited, an automobile retailer, provides automobile finance lease services through self-operated sales outlets in the People's Republic of China. The company sells non-luxury automobiles on direct finance lease, as well as car on a one-off basis; trades in automobiles; and offers automobile operating lease services and other automobile-related services. It also provides information technology services. XXF Group Holdings Limited was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Fuzhou, China.
Stock analysis
XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473) currently trades at HK$0.3850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3700, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$0.5100 per share, and 3 of the 8 models we run sit above the HK$0.3850 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$0.3600, and 5 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.2700 (bear) to HK$0.4600 (bull), the price of HK$0.3850 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
XXF Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 1.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was 44.7M CNY in FY2025, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$715M (≈ $91.1M) · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 0.32 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 4.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7% · Operating margin 17.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 97% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −4%, 2473 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.2700Fair Value HK$0.3700Bull HK$0.4600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+55.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 12%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 335 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−3.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.4% · Below median
Return on assets4.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth42.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.52× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XXF Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2473
Frequently asked questions
Is XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3700 versus a price of HK$0.3850, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 2473?
Our model-based fair value for XXF Group Holdings Ltd is HK$0.3700 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3850.
What is the quality score of 2473?
XXF Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3700 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2700, optimistic scenario HK$0.4600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XXF Group Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3700, about −4% upside versus a price of HK$0.3850 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2700, optimistic scenario HK$0.4600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473)?
XXF Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does XXF Group Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
XXF Group Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XXF Group Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.3700 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of HK$0.3850. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is XXF Group Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 2473 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.3850, fair value HK$0.3700, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2473?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.3850); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3700). For XXF Group Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.0150 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XXF Group Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values XXF Group Holdings Ltd at about HK$715M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.3850; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2473?
Our models span a range for XXF Group Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.2700, base HK$0.3700, optimistic HK$0.4600 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price HK$0.3850). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2473?
XXF Group Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.3700 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 5.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473)?
Balance-sheet figures for XXF Group Holdings Ltd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 5.4%, debt of 1.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2473 from its 52-week high?
XXF Group Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.3850, about 97% below its 52-week high of HK$14.91 and 3% above the low of HK$0.3750 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XXF Group Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XXF Group Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price HK$0.3850, calculated fair value HK$0.3700 (−4%), Quality Score 20/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2473 calculated?
We run XXF Group Holdings Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. XXF Group Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.3850. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3700, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XXF Group Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of XXF Group Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473)?
The market capitalisation of XXF Group Holdings Ltd is HK$715M (≈ $91.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473)?
The price-to-sales ratio of XXF Group Holdings Ltd is 0.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473)?
The dividend yield of XXF Group Holdings Ltd is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473)?
The net margin of XXF Group Holdings Ltd is 2.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XXF Group Holdings Ltd is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XXF Group Holdings Ltd is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473)?
The operating margin of XXF Group Holdings Ltd is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473)?
Revenue at XXF Group Holdings Ltd is growing −3.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473)?
Earnings per share at XXF Group Holdings Ltd are growing −25.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473) generate?
The free cash flow of XXF Group Holdings Ltd is −530M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does XXF Group Holdings Ltd (2473) carry?
The net debt of XXF Group Holdings Ltd is 2.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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