China Overseas Property Holdings Ltd (2669) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$10.8B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$8.68 to HK$8.55 (−1.5%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −1.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 151% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$6.46). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$3.22 – HK$9.90 · fair‑value band HK$6.46 – HK$11.35 · the HK$3.41 price screens below the HK$8.55 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Overseas Property Holdings Ltd (2669) currently trades at HK$3.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.55, implying the stock looks roughly 151.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Overseas Property Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$15.0B at a net margin of 9.1%. Revenue grew 8.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$6.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$6.46 (bear case) to HK$11.35 (bull case); at HK$3.41, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 151%, 2669 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$13.33) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.33). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Overseas Property Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management services in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. It operates through three segments: Property Management Services, Value-Added Services, and Car Parking Space Trading Business.
Full company description
China Overseas Property Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management services in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. It operates through three segments: Property Management Services, Value-Added Services, and Car Parking Space Trading Business. The Property Management Services segment offers security, repair and maintenance, cleaning, and garden landscape maintenance services to residential communities, commercial properties, government properties, and construction sites. The Value-Added Services segment provides engineering services, vetting of building plans, facilities and equipment evaluation proposals, pre-delivery and move-in assistance, delivery inspection, and engineering service quality monitoring and consulting services for property developers and other property management companies. It also provides community asset management services, such as rental assistance, agency and custody services for real estate transactions, common area rental assistance, and rental of its own properties, as well as home living service operations for residents and commercial service operations. The Car Parking Space Trading Business segment engages in the trading of various car parking spaces. The company is also involved in the provision of services through an online-to-offline platform and in trademark holding activities. The company was formerly known as China Overseas Management Services International Limited and changed its name to China Overseas Property Holdings Limited in May 2015. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Hong Kong. China Overseas Property Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Overseas Holdings Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Overseas Property Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$16.4B in FY2025 versus HK$9.5B in FY2021, a compound +14.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.5B in FY2025, compounding +10.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +21.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 529 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA | 3,989 CLP | 4,571 CLP | +15% |
| PT Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk SUPR | 43,850 IDR | 15,049 IDR | -66% |
| Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS | 2,412 CLP | 2,976 CLP | +23% |
| PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR | 392.00 IDR | 1,012 IDR | +158% |
| PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI | 22,000 IDR | 19,160 IDR | -13% |
| PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK | 3,610 IDR | 3,464 IDR | -4% |
| IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA | 2,495 ARS | 2,990 ARS | +20% |
| PT Plaza Indonesia Realty Tbk PLIN | 2,510 IDR | 2,698 IDR | +7% |
| PT MNC Tourism Indonesia Tbk, KPIG | 74.00 IDR | 122.12 IDR | +65% |
| PT Indonesian Paradise Property Tbk INPP | 770.00 IDR | 291.52 IDR | -62% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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