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Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$28.3B

CI Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited 2788 · HK
PriceHK$16.83
Fair ValueHK$17.87
Upside+6.2%
Quality55/100
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Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 14.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
5.04% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Wide moat 79/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$10.43 – HK$22.73 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$29.79 to HK$17.87 (−40.0%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −3.1% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

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What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$10.43 to HK$22.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (9 months)

HK$31.57 HK$13.13 Fair Value HK$17.87 Nov 2025 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

9‑month range HK$13.13 – HK$31.57 · fair‑value band HK$10.43 – HK$22.73 · the HK$16.83 price screens below the HK$17.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788) currently trades at HK$16.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$17.87, implying the stock looks roughly 6.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited generated revenue of HK$18.7B at a net margin of 14.6%. It earns a return on equity of 46.7%. Net debt stands at HK$7.9B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 6.7 (as of Jul 2, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$10.43 (bear case) to HK$22.73 (bull case); at HK$16.83, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 6%, 2788 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$9.98 HK$16.23 HK$26.90 80
Residual Income HK$8.83 HK$12.23 HK$83.64 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$10.66 HK$17.63 HK$26.71 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$10.06 HK$16.91 HK$28.95 38
Owner Earnings HK$2.09 HK$2.31 HK$2.70 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$10.66 HK$17.86 HK$27.76 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$16.11 HK$29.17 HK$45.85 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$14.75 HK$26.35 HK$39.80 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$10.08 HK$16.88 HK$27.52 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$14.02 HK$25.20 HK$42.78 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$13.11 HK$23.12 HK$37.68 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$8.72 HK$41.47 HK$57.05 54
Lynch FV HK$11.03 HK$15.76 HK$20.48 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$11.03 HK$15.76 HK$20.48 46
EPV HK$18.24 HK$20.97 HK$23.37 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$3.14 HK$6.53 HK$10.36 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$3.14 HK$5.51 HK$6.85 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$16.35 HK$21.79 HK$27.24 63
P/S Multiple HK$9.87 HK$13.15 HK$16.44 58
P/B Multiple HK$10.44 HK$13.92 HK$17.40 55
EV/EBIT HK$22.69 HK$29.65 HK$36.60 53
EV/EBITDA HK$20.32 HK$26.49 HK$32.66 54
EV/Revenue HK$11.03 HK$14.97 HK$18.92 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.32 HK$3.11 HK$4.64 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$9.98 HK$16.23 HK$26.90 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$10.66 HK$17.63 HK$26.71 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$8.83 HK$12.23 HK$83.64 76
ROIC Compounder HK$19.58 HK$24.18 HK$29.40 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$15.54 HK$22.20 HK$28.87 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$22.20) versus Asset-Based (HK$3.11). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$18.7B
Net margin 14.6%
Return on equity 46.7%
Free cash flow HK$1.3B FY2025
P/E ratio 6.7 as of Jul 2, 2026
Operating margin 22.8%
More key figures
Dividend yield 5.0%
Net debt HK$7.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 18
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited produces and sells electrolytic aluminum and alumina in the People's Republic of China. It engages in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting. Its electrolytic aluminum products primarily include liquid aluminum and aluminum ingots.

Full company description

Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited produces and sells electrolytic aluminum and alumina in the People's Republic of China. It engages in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting. Its electrolytic aluminum products primarily include liquid aluminum and aluminum ingots. The company is also involved in wind and photovoltaic power generation and production activities; wastewater treatment system; and solid waste management. In addition, the company offers alumina and other related products; scrap and other materials; steam supply; and electricity. It serves 3C electronics, lightweight automotive, green energy, transportation, industrial materials, and construction industries. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is based in Tongliao, China. Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Bloomsbury Holding Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited reported revenue of HK$18.2B in FY2025 versus HK$13.5B in FY2022, a compound +10.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.7B in FY2025, compounding +44.5%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$18.2B
Latest YoY
+20.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.5%
Revenue +10.5%/yr
FY22 HK$13.5B
FY23 HK$13.8B
FY24 HK$15.2B
FY25 HK$18.2B
Net income +44.5%/yr
FY22 HK$881M
FY23 HK$1.0B
FY24 HK$2.1B
FY25 HK$2.7B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2788

Peer Group

Aluminum · 82 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside +6% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 47% · Top 25%
Return on assets 11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.0% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.31× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.94× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.51× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 42 · sector 17
FUTURE 0 · sector 25
PAST 100 · sector 32
HEALTH 85 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 ¥21.34 ¥23.44 +10%
China Hongqiao Group 1378 HK$24.44 HK$45.58 +86%
Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO ₹1,046 ₹1,026 -2%
Aluminum Corporation 601600 ¥9.94 ¥16.30 +64%
Norsk Hydro ASA NHY kr 90.02 kr 58.10 -35%
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 7.99 MYR 3.88 MYR -51%
Alcoa Corporation AAI A$73.19 A$49.53 -32%
Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 ¥27.44 ¥29.68 +8%
Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 ¥27.24 ¥30.28 +11%
Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 ¥14.27 ¥21.86 +53%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$17.87 versus a price of HK$16.83, about +6% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 2788?
Our model-based fair value for Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited is HK$17.87 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$16.83.
What is the quality score of 2788?
Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$18.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2788?
The net profit margin of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited is about 14.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited pay a dividend?
Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.04% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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