Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited HK$14.88, price HK$15.04, upside -1.1%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range HK$13.13 – HK$31.57 · fair‑value band HK$9.95 – HK$20.57 · the HK$15.04 price screens above the HK$14.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited produces and sells electrolytic aluminum and alumina in the People's Republic of China. It engages in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting. Its electrolytic aluminum products primarily include liquid aluminum and aluminum ingots.
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Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited produces and sells electrolytic aluminum and alumina in the People's Republic of China. It engages in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting. Its electrolytic aluminum products primarily include liquid aluminum and aluminum ingots. The company is also involved in wind and photovoltaic power generation and production activities; wastewater treatment system; and solid waste management. In addition, the company offers alumina and other related products; scrap and other materials; steam supply; and electricity. It serves 3C electronics, lightweight automotive, green energy, transportation, industrial materials, and construction industries. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is based in Tongliao, China. Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Bloomsbury Holding Limited.
Stock analysis
Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788) currently trades at HK$15.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$14.88, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$25.94 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$15.04 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$3.63, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$9.95 (bear) to HK$20.57 (bull), the price of HK$15.04 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited reported revenue of 18.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 13.5B CNY in FY2022, a compound +10.5%/yr. Reported net income was 2.7B CNY in FY2025, compounding +44.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$31.2B (≈ $4.0B) · P/E ratio 6.3 · P/S ratio 0.91 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 14.6% · Return on equity 46.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.0% · Operating margin 32.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −1%, 2788 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$9.95Fair Value HK$14.88Bull HK$20.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+66.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+61.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 23%
2025 sits 241% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.0% a year for the price and +4.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−1.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)46.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)19.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)32.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth32.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
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Is Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$14.88 versus a price of HK$15.04, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 2788?
Our model-based fair value for Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited is HK$14.88 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$15.04.
What is the quality score of 2788?
Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$14.88 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$9.95, optimistic scenario HK$20.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$14.88, about −1% upside versus a price of HK$15.04 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$9.95, optimistic scenario HK$20.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 21.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited pay a dividend?
Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.60% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +14.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2788 use?
Our models discount Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited that is +14.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies +14.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (+14.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.92 %: that much free cash flow Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited it is HK$14.88 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of HK$15.04. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 2788 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$15.04, fair value HK$14.88, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2788?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$15.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$14.88). For Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited the two are HK$0.1580 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited worth?
The market values Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited at about HK$31.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$15.04; our models calculate a fair value of HK$14.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2788?
Our models span a range for Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited: cautious scenario HK$9.95, base HK$14.88, optimistic HK$20.57 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price HK$15.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2788?
Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$14.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.8, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 3.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 46.7%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Aluminum Corporation, Hindalco Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price HK$15.04, calculated fair value HK$14.88 (−1%), Quality Score 46/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2788 calculated?
We run Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$14.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$15.04. Our model-based fair value is HK$14.88, about −1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (HK$9.95 to HK$20.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
The market capitalisation of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited is HK$31.2B (≈ $4.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited is 0.91 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
The dividend yield of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited is 4.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
The net margin of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited is 14.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited is 46.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited is 14.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
The operating margin of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited is 32.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
Revenue at Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited is growing +32.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788)?
Earnings per share at Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited are growing +92.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788) carry?
The net debt of Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited is 7.9B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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