Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$28.3B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$29.79 to HK$17.87 (−40.0%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −3.1% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$10.43 to HK$22.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (9 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
9‑month range HK$13.13 – HK$31.57 · fair‑value band HK$10.43 – HK$22.73 · the HK$16.83 price screens below the HK$17.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited (2788) currently trades at HK$16.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$17.87, implying the stock looks roughly 6.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited generated revenue of HK$18.7B at a net margin of 14.6%. It earns a return on equity of 46.7%. Net debt stands at HK$7.9B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 6.7 (as of Jul 2, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$10.43 (bear case) to HK$22.73 (bull case); at HK$16.83, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 6%, 2788 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$22.20) versus Asset-Based (HK$3.11). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited produces and sells electrolytic aluminum and alumina in the People's Republic of China. It engages in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting. Its electrolytic aluminum products primarily include liquid aluminum and aluminum ingots.
Full company description
Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited produces and sells electrolytic aluminum and alumina in the People's Republic of China. It engages in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting. Its electrolytic aluminum products primarily include liquid aluminum and aluminum ingots. The company is also involved in wind and photovoltaic power generation and production activities; wastewater treatment system; and solid waste management. In addition, the company offers alumina and other related products; scrap and other materials; steam supply; and electricity. It serves 3C electronics, lightweight automotive, green energy, transportation, industrial materials, and construction industries. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is based in Tongliao, China. Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Bloomsbury Holding Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chuangxin Industries Holdings Limited reported revenue of HK$18.2B in FY2025 versus HK$13.5B in FY2022, a compound +10.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.7B in FY2025, compounding +44.5%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Aluminum · 82 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥21.34 | ¥23.44 | +10% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$24.44 | HK$45.58 | +86% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹1,046 | ₹1,026 | -2% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥9.94 | ¥16.30 | +64% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 90.02 | kr 58.10 | -35% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 7.99 MYR | 3.88 MYR | -51% |
| Alcoa Corporation AAI | A$73.19 | A$49.53 | -32% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥27.44 | ¥29.68 | +8% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥27.24 | ¥30.28 | +11% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥14.27 | ¥21.86 | +53% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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