2788 (2788) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · Market cap HK$28.3B

2 2788 2788 · HK

PriceHK$13.62

Fair ValueHK$29.59

Upside+117.3%

Quality38/100

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Evidence: Medium Range HK$17.09 – HK$36.99

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price −32.2% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (7 months)

7‑month range HK$13.13 – HK$31.57 · fair‑value band HK$17.09 – HK$36.99 · the HK$13.62 price screens below the HK$29.59 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

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Analysis

2788 (2788) currently trades at HK$13.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$29.59 — implying the stock looks roughly 117.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium) — always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, 2788 generated revenue of HK$18.7B at a net margin of 14.6%. It earns a return on equity of 46.7%. Net debt stands at HK$7.9B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 6.7. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$18.7B

Net margin 14.6%

Return on equity 46.7%

Free cash flow HK$1.3B FY2025

P/E ratio 6.7

Operating margin 22.8%

More key figures

Dividend yield 5.0%

Net debt HK$7.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

2788 reported revenue of HK$18.2B in FY2025 versus HK$13.5B in FY2022, a compound +10.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.7B in FY2025, compounding +44.5%/yr from FY2022.

Revenue +10.5%/yr

FY22 HK$13.5B

FY23 HK$13.8B

FY24 HK$15.2B

FY25 HK$18.2B

Net income +44.5%/yr

FY22 HK$881M

FY23 HK$1.0B

FY24 HK$2.1B

FY25 HK$2.7B

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Similar stocks

6 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
China Hongqiao Group CHHQY	$29.13	$54.65	+88%
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379	¥18.63	¥41.14	+121%
Aluminum Corporation 601600	¥9.86	¥17.01	+73%
Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO	₹1,093	₹1,096	+0%
1378 1378	HK$20.06	HK$45.23	+125%
Norsk Hydro ASA NHY	kr 110.00	kr 50.38	-54%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 2788 (2788) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$29.59 versus a price of HK$13.62 — about +117% (undervalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 2788?

Our model-based fair value for 2788 is HK$29.59 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$13.62.

What is the quality score of 2788?

2788 has a Quality Score of 38/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 2788 (2788)?

2788 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$18.7B (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 2788?

The net profit margin of 2788 is about 14.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does 2788 pay a dividend?

2788 currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.04% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.