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XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co stock ¥3.52, price ¥6.51, upside -45.9%, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials CN · ISIN CNE100000SH2

XD XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co logo Thin data Oct 30, 2026

XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co

300103 · SHE
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 46% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Quality 42/100
Revenue last quarter 18% below a year ago.
Fair value ¥3.52 · Strongly overvalued (−45.9%)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −33.3 %/yr in CNY)
Loss-making · -49.8% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/11)
Narrow moat 17/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥11.95 ¥3.05 Fair Value ¥3.52 May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.05 – ¥11.95 · fair‑value band ¥2.33 – ¥4.39 · the ¥6.51 price screens above the ¥3.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 30, 2026.

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Company profile

Dagang Holding Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, manufacture, sale, and servicing of road construction and maintenance machineries and equipment in China.

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It offers pavement maintenance machines, including asphalt pavement maintenance trucks, pavement maintenance vehicles, binding agent spreaders, self-propelled road widening machines, crack sealing machines, asphalt crack sealing and spraying machines, and asphalt pavement cold in-place recyclers.

The company also provides asphalt distributors; synchronous chip sealers; and self-propelled, lift-type, and pull-type chip spreaders. In addition, it offers micro-surfacing/slurry seal trucks and fiber micro-surfacing/slurry seal trucks.

Further, the company provides asphalt material production equipment, liquid asphalt truck series, and gravel sprinkling equipment. Additionally, it undertakes general contracting of housing construction and municipal infrastructure projects.

The company offers pre-sales, sales, and after-sales services. It also exports its products. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Xi'an, China.

Stock analysis

XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103) currently trades at ¥6.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.52, 45.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: ¥2.33 (bear) to ¥4.39 (bull), the price of ¥6.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co reported revenue of 155M CNY in FY2024 versus 1.3B CNY in FY2020, a compound −41.0%/yr. Reported net income was −115M CNY in FY2024.

Key figures

Market cap 2.1B CNY (≈ $311M) Small · P/S ratio 17.7 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.1800 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin −49.8% · Return on equity −13.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.5% · Operating margin 5.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −46%, 300103 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥2.33 Fair Value ¥3.52 Bull ¥4.39
Price ¥6.51 · Upside -45.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.3500 ¥0.5300 ¥0.6600 55
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.3500 ¥0.5300 ¥0.6600 55

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 2
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 81
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 95
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 38
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 17
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−39.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−46.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−33.3%
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.9% (2019) → −29.5% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

300103 screens overvalued: fair value 46% below the price. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 149 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −45.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −13.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −49.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 5.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −18.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.05× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/B 4.03× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 17.73× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 45
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 55
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)5 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 ¥7.07 ¥14.52 +105% vs 300103
Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 HK$32.78 HK$57.82 +76% vs 300103
Daimler Truck Holding DTG €40.24 €49.77 +24% vs 300103
Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 ¥18.07 ¥20.84 +15% vs 300103
PACCAR Inc PCAR $103.73 $114.10 +10% vs 300103
Metso Oyj METSO €17.05 €18.76 +10% vs 300103
Traton SE 8TRA €32.00 €32.85 +3% vs 300103
CNH Industrial N.V CNH $11.14 $8.65 −22% vs 300103
Caterpillar Inc CAT $647.39 $308.45 −52% vs 300103
Deere & Company DE $660.00 $263.46 −60% vs 300103

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XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co · Fair Value
¥3.52 −46%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300103

Frequently asked questions

Is XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.52 versus a price of ¥6.51, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300103?
Our model-based fair value for XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co is ¥3.52 (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥6.51.
What is the quality score of 300103?
XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.52 (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.33, optimistic scenario ¥4.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.52, about −46% upside versus a price of ¥6.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.33, optimistic scenario ¥4.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 117M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
Does XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co pay a dividend?
XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co currently shows a dividend yield of 0.27% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co it is ¥3.52 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of ¥6.51. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, 300103 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥6.51, fair value ¥3.52, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300103?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥6.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.52). For XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co the two are ¥2.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co worth?
The market values XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co at about 2.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is ¥6.51; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300103?
Our models span a range for XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co: cautious scenario ¥2.33, base ¥3.52, optimistic ¥4.39 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price ¥6.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
Balance-sheet figures for XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity −13.5%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300103 from its 52-week high?
XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co trades at ¥6.51, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥9.80 and 4% above the low of ¥6.23 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price ¥6.51, calculated fair value ¥3.52 (−46%), Quality Score 42/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300103 calculated?
We run XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was ¥6.51. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.52, about −46% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥2.33 to ¥4.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co

How large is the market capitalisation of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
The market capitalisation of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co is 2.1B CNY (≈ $311M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
The price-to-sales ratio of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co is 17.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
Earnings per share at XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co are ¥−0.1800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
The dividend yield of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
The net margin of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co is −49.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co is −13.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co is −2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
The operating margin of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
Revenue at XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co is growing −18.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −46.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103)?
Earnings per share at XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co are growing −40.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103) generate?
The free cash flow of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co is −41.4M CNY (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co (300103) carry?
The net debt of XiAn Dagang Road Machinery Co is 52.2M CNY (fiscal year 2023). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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