YaGuang Technology Group (300123) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 4.5B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥1.33 to ¥2.38 (+78.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +34.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.61). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥1.20 to ¥3.61). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.41 – ¥13.59 · fair‑value band ¥1.20 – ¥3.61 · the ¥4.59 price screens above the ¥2.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
YaGuang Technology Group (300123) currently trades at ¥4.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.38, implying the stock looks roughly 48.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at 627M CNY. Revenue declined 59.9% year over year. Net debt stands at 1.3B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.20 (bear case) to ¥3.61 (bull case); at ¥4.59, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -48%, 300123 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥1.86) versus Asset-Based (¥0.2200). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
YaGuang Technology Group Company Limited researches, develops, manufactures, and sells military microwave electronics and intelligent ships in China. The company offers intelligent boat, new ship type, yachts, special boats, official boat, engineering ship, new energy ship, and sightseeing boats.
Full company description
YaGuang Technology Group Company Limited researches, develops, manufactures, and sells military microwave electronics and intelligent ships in China. The company offers intelligent boat, new ship type, yachts, special boats, official boat, engineering ship, new energy ship, and sightseeing boats. It also provides customizable microwave electron products, including module components, RF chip, microwave device, substrate cavity, and system extension. It serves its products to aviation, aerospace, and navigation industries. The company was formerly known as Sunbird Yacht Co., Ltd. and changed its name to YaGuang Technology Group Company Limited in January 2018. YaGuang Technology Group Company Limited was founded in 2003 and is based in Yuanjiang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
YaGuang Technology Group reported revenue of ¥784M in FY2025 versus ¥1.6B in FY2021, a compound −16.2%/yr. Reported net income was −¥1.2B in FY2025.
300123 screens 48% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.25 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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