Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd ¥5.51, price ¥17.13, upside -67.8%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.08 – ¥21.52 · fair‑value band ¥3.47 – ¥6.93 · the ¥17.13 price screens above the ¥5.51 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Chengdu Yunda Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides rail transit intelligent solutions and services in China. The company offers various solutions, including smart training, intelligent operation and maintenance, smart depot, smart traction power, smart freight, and smart vehicle section, as well as simulation training products.
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Chengdu Yunda Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides rail transit intelligent solutions and services in China. The company offers various solutions, including smart training, intelligent operation and maintenance, smart depot, smart traction power, smart freight, and smart vehicle section, as well as simulation training products. It also provides repair and maintenance for railroad rolling stock and ground equipment; overhaul of locomotive, passenger and moving cars, and metro vehicle components; agency sale of rolling stock parts, railway special equipment, special parts, and various types of consumables; technical services for various rail transportation fields; and technological change development. The company serves national railways, urban railways, and vocational colleges. Chengdu Yunda Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is based in Chengdu, China.
Stock analysis
Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440) currently trades at ¥17.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.51, implying the stock looks roughly 210.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥6.09 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥17.13 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.55, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥3.47 (bear) to ¥6.93 (bull), the price of ¥17.13 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 906M CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was 87.1M CNY in FY2025, compounding −2.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.7B CNY (≈ $1.3B) · P/E ratio 90.2 · P/S ratio 6.56 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1900 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 7.3% · Return on equity 5.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −68%, 300440 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥3.47Fair Value ¥5.51Bull ¥6.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1062 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +6.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 13%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 80% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.2% a year for the price.
Compare Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 110 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−67.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.0% · Below median
Return on assets3.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−44.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−45.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)90.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.17× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)7.49× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF11.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA57.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)20· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)5· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300440
Frequently asked questions
Is Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.51 versus a price of ¥17.13, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300440?
Our model-based fair value for Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd is ¥5.51 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥17.13.
What is the quality score of 300440?
Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.51 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.47, optimistic scenario ¥6.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.51, about −68% upside versus a price of ¥17.13 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.47, optimistic scenario ¥6.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.27% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +34.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300440 use?
Our models discount Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd that is +34.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies +34.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (+34.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.55 %: that much free cash flow Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd it is ¥5.51 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ¥17.13. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 300440 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥17.13, fair value ¥5.51, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300440?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥17.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.51). For Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd the two are ¥11.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd worth?
The market values Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd at about 8.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥17.13; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300440?
Our models span a range for Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.47, base ¥5.51, optimistic ¥6.93 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ¥17.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300440?
Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 90.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥5.51 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.2, P/S 7.5, EV/EBITDA 57.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 5.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300440 from its 52-week high?
Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd trades at ¥17.13, about 20% below its 52-week high of ¥21.52 and 47% above the low of ¥11.69 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ¥17.13, calculated fair value ¥5.51 (−68%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300440 calculated?
We run Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥5.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥17.13. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.51, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥6.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥3.47 to ¥6.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
The market capitalisation of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd is 8.7B CNY (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd is 6.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
Earnings per share at Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd are ¥0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 90.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
The dividend yield of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd is 0.3% (payout 24.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
The net margin of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd is 7.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
The operating margin of Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd is −44.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
Revenue at Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd is growing −45.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd (300440)?
Earnings per share at Chengdu Yunda Technology Co Ltd are growing +136% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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