Thunder Software Technology Co (300496) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · CN · Market cap 28.6B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥20.91 to ¥19.50 (−6.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +7.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 69% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥24.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥32.07 – ¥159.50 · fair‑value band ¥16.89 – ¥24.37 · the ¥62.50 price screens above the ¥19.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
Thunder Software Technology Co (300496) currently trades at ¥62.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥19.50, implying the stock looks roughly 68.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Thunder Software Technology Co generated revenue of 8.1B CNY at a net margin of 5.7%. Revenue grew 19.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 3.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥16.89 (bear case) to ¥24.37 (bull case); at ¥62.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -69%, 300496 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥39.51) versus Asset-Based (¥15.00). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Thunder Software Technology Co.,Ltd. provides operating systems and on-device AI products and technologies in China, Europe, the United States, Japan, and internationally.
Full company description
Thunder Software Technology Co.,Ltd. provides operating systems and on-device AI products and technologies in China, Europe, the United States, Japan, and internationally. The company offers pre and post silicon products; Smart Robotics Solutions, such as high, medium, and low computing power system on module and robot brain solutions; Edge AI station, IoT harbor, AIoT turnkey platform products; and Kanzi-3D engine and HMI toolchain. It also provides vehicle OS and HPC products; smart cockpit platforms, smart drive and vision, automatic test product toolchain; IoT OS products; IoT computing platform; and smart devices, including XR, handy terminals, video conference and live streaming, and arm server, as well as smart wearables, cameras, and speakers. In addition, the company offers system software solutions and customization comprising smartphone solutions and carrier certification services. Thunder Software Technology Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Thunder Software Technology Co reported revenue of ¥7.8B in FY2025 versus ¥4.1B in FY2021, a compound +17.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥450M in FY2025, compounding −8.7%/yr from FY2021.
300496 screens 69% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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