Xi'an Triangle Defense Co (300775) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 12.6B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥14.90 to ¥14.28 (−4.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +2.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥17.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥19.23 – ¥52.66 · fair‑value band ¥9.87 – ¥17.51 · the ¥21.70 price screens above the ¥14.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
Xi'an Triangle Defense Co (300775) currently trades at ¥21.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.28, implying the stock looks roughly 34.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Xi'an Triangle Defense Co generated revenue of 1.5B CNY at a net margin of 18.4%. Revenue declined 29.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 745M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥9.87 (bear case) to ¥17.51 (bull case); at ¥21.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -34%, 300775 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥20.26) versus Growth DCF (¥5.57). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Xi'an Triangle Defense Co.,Ltd engages in the research, production, sales and service of forging products in the aviation, aerospace, shipbuilding industries in China and internationally.
Full company description
Xi'an Triangle Defense Co.,Ltd engages in the research, production, sales and service of forging products in the aviation, aerospace, shipbuilding industries in China and internationally. The company offers engine blades, engine compressor journal, turbo shaft, turbine disc, receiver, rings, drum, and fan disc, as well as nozzle housing and aircraft landing gear. It also provides die and free forgings for aviation sector, including key structural parts and engine discs. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Xi'an, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xi'an Triangle Defense Co reported revenue of ¥1.6B in FY2025 versus ¥1.2B in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥389M in FY2025, compounding −1.5%/yr from FY2021.
300775 screens 34% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.25 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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