Beijing Jiaoda Signal Technology Co (300851) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.1B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Share price +6.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥14.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥15.90 – ¥35.95 · fair‑value band ¥9.54 – ¥14.07 · the ¥23.96 price screens above the ¥12.25 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
Beijing Jiaoda Signal Technology Co (300851) currently trades at ¥23.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.25, implying the stock looks roughly 48.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Beijing Jiaoda Signal Technology Co generated revenue of 416M CNY at a net margin of 19.6%. Revenue grew 25.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.2%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 25.9. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥9.54 (bear case) to ¥14.07 (bull case); at ¥23.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -49%, 300851 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥16.15) versus Earnings-Based (¥4.51). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Beijing Jiaoda Signal Technology Co., Ltd. engages in research and development, design, production, sales, and technical support of key equipment for rail transit train operation control systems in China. The company offers locomotive signal CPU components, transponder systems, and track circuit readers.
Full company description
Beijing Jiaoda Signal Technology Co., Ltd. engages in research and development, design, production, sales, and technical support of key equipment for rail transit train operation control systems in China. The company offers locomotive signal CPU components, transponder systems, and track circuit readers. It also provides locomotive signal on-board system equipment; track circuit reader; early warning system, BTM inventory inspection system, transponder system fault warning platform, locomotive signal vehicle-ground integration analysis system, and intelligent check management system of column control data; and educational training and simulation systems. In addition, the company is involved in manufacturing of accessories; technical services; transfer and development of technology; application software services; software development; and computer system services. Its products are used in railway, urban transit, and other projects. The company was founded in 2001 and is based in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Beijing Jiaoda Signal Technology Co reported revenue of ¥403M in FY2025 versus ¥362M in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥74.5M in FY2025, compounding −6.4%/yr from FY2021.
300851 screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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