Western Regions Tourism Development Co (300859) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 4.5B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥10.57 to ¥9.93 (−6.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 64% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥12.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥13.73 – ¥56.48 · fair‑value band ¥7.45 – ¥12.42 · the ¥27.49 price screens above the ¥9.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
Western Regions Tourism Development Co (300859) currently trades at ¥27.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.93, implying the stock looks roughly 63.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Western Regions Tourism Development Co generated revenue of 329M CNY at a net margin of 23.6%. Revenue grew 18.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.7%. Net debt stands at 1.2M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥7.45 (bear case) to ¥12.42 (bull case); at ¥27.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -64%, 300859 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥14.25) versus Asset-Based (¥3.38). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Western Regions Tourism Development Co.,Ltd provides tourism and travel services in China. The company offers tourism transportation, lake sightseeing, tourism resource development, cable cars, sightseeing vehicles, hot spring tourism, international travel agency, and catering services, as well as food and agricultural product sales.
Full company description
Western Regions Tourism Development Co.,Ltd provides tourism and travel services in China. The company offers tourism transportation, lake sightseeing, tourism resource development, cable cars, sightseeing vehicles, hot spring tourism, international travel agency, and catering services, as well as food and agricultural product sales. The company was formerly known as Xinjiang Tianshan Tianchi Tourism Co., Ltd. Western Regions Tourism Development Co.,Ltd was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Fukang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Western Regions Tourism Development Co reported revenue of ¥326M in FY2025 versus ¥149M in FY2021, a compound +21.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥74.7M in FY2025, compounding +29.0%/yr from FY2021.
300859 screens 64% overvalued. Compare with Booking Holdings →
Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $182.80 | $152.94 | -16% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $148.62 | $57.47 | -61% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $286.96 | $215.19 | -25% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $100.69 | $43.51 | -57% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $26.41 | $31.36 | +19% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $268.77 | $248.63 | -7% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $42.45 | $88.82 | +109% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $19.46 | $20.28 | +4% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.40 | $4.17 | -56% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $73.27 | $27.29 | -63% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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