Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. ¥5.39, price ¥26.43, upside -79.6%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value ¥5.39 · Strongly overvalued (−80%)
!Quality 57/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −8.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -12.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(3/12)
!Narrow moat1/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.93 – ¥53.79 · fair‑value band ¥4.39 – ¥7.27 · the ¥26.43 price screens above the ¥5.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of industrial metal forgings in China and internationally. The company offers bearing, flange, gear ring, and other industrial metal forgings; and technical services.
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Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of industrial metal forgings in China and internationally. The company offers bearing, flange, gear ring, and other industrial metal forgings; and technical services. It also engages in the provision and after-sales service of high-end equipment parts for wind power generation, nuclear power generation, rail transportation, marine engineering, and mechanical engineering; metal material inspection and testing: forging process and material technology development; and self-operated and agency import and export business of various commodities and technologies. The company serves various industries, including wind power, engineering and mining machinery, nuclear power, shipbuilding, electric power, and petrification. The company was formerly known as Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu Special Forgings Co.,Ltd and changed its name to Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co., Ltd. in June 2019. Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co., Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Zhangjiagang, China.
Stock analysis
Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040) currently trades at ¥26.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.39, implying the stock looks roughly 390.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥5.36 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the ¥26.43 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ¥1.07, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥4.39 (bear) to ¥7.27 (bull), the price of ¥26.43 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 706M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −9.9%/yr. Reported net income was −78.4M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.0B CNY (≈ $453M) · P/S ratio 4.39 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.8300 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −11.1% · Return on equity −10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.1% · Operating margin −6.7%.
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −80%, 301040 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥4.39Fair Value ¥5.39Bull ¥7.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
14.0% (2020) → −5.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+51.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +48.9% a year for the price.
Compare Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 261 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−80% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−12% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.43× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.57× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.66× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF23.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.39 versus a price of ¥26.43, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301040?
Our model-based fair value for Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. is ¥5.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥26.43.
What is the quality score of 301040?
Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.39, optimistic scenario ¥7.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.39, about −80% upside versus a price of ¥26.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.39, optimistic scenario ¥7.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 691M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.14% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +51.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 301040 use?
Our models discount Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. that is +51.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. grew -8.5 % a year. The price currently implies +51.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (+51.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.72 %: that much free cash flow Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. it is ¥5.39 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥26.43. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 301040 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥26.43, fair value ¥5.39, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301040?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥26.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.39). For Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. the two are ¥21.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. at about 3.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥26.43; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301040?
Our models span a range for Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥4.39, base ¥5.39, optimistic ¥7.27 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥26.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −10.2%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301040 from its 52-week high?
Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. trades at ¥26.43, about 40% below its 52-week high of ¥43.88 and 29% above the low of ¥20.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Carpenter Technology Corporation, ATI Inc, Mueller Industries, Inc, Aurubis AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥26.43, calculated fair value ¥5.39 (−80%), Quality Score 57/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301040 calculated?
We run Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥5.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥26.43. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.39, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
The market capitalisation of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. is 3.0B CNY (≈ $453M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. is 4.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
Earnings per share at Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. are ¥−0.8300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
The dividend yield of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
The net margin of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. is −11.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. is −10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. is −0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
The operating margin of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. is −6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
Revenue at Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. is growing −8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040)?
Earnings per share at Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. are growing −75.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. (301040) carry?
The net debt of Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co. Ltd. is 77.2M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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