Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. stock ¥8.45, price ¥15.50, that is 45.5% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
55‑month range ¥10.87 – ¥29.65 · fair‑value band ¥7.08 – ¥9.58 · the ¥15.50 price screens above the ¥8.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co., Ltd. engages in the design, research and development, production, and sale of water-saving valves in China and internationally.
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It offers butterfly valves, gate valves, control valves, check valves, and other valve products, as well as supporting products for use in downstream fields, such as urban water supply and drainage, water conservancy, and industry.
The company was formerly known as Shanghai Karon Valves Machinery Co., Ltd and changed its name to Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co., Ltd. in September 2020. Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co., Ltd. was founded in 1991 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151) currently trades at ¥15.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.45, 45% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥11.70 per share, and 1 of the 23 models we run sit above the ¥15.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥3.09, and 22 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥7.08 (bear) to ¥9.58 (bull), the price of ¥15.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 805M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.4%/yr. Reported net income was 60.6M CNY in FY2025, compounding −25.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.0B CNY (≈ $453M) Small · P/E ratio 47.0 · P/S ratio 3.69 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.3300 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −45%, 301151 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥7.08Fair Value ¥8.45Bull¥9.58
Price ¥15.50 · Downside -45.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 11%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.4% a year for the price.
Compare Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 814 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−45.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)6.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)27.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.2% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Is Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.45 versus a price of ¥15.50, about 45% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301151?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. is ¥8.45 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥15.50.
What is the quality score of 301151?
Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.45 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.08, optimistic scenario ¥9.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.45, about 45% lower versus a price of ¥15.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥7.08, optimistic scenario ¥9.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 819M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 3.23% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. pays a dividend of ¥0.5 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 9, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. The payout ratio is 152% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.35 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +29.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.5 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 301151 use?
Our models discount Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. that is +29.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. grew -4.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +29.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (+29.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.13 %: that much free cash flow Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. it is ¥8.45 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥15.50. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 301151 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥15.50, fair value ¥8.45, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301151?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥15.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.45). For Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. the two are ¥7.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. at about 3.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥15.50; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301151?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥7.08, base ¥8.45, optimistic ¥9.58 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥15.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301151?
Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥8.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 3.7, EV/EBITDA 29.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 2.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301151 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. trades at ¥15.50, about 33% below its 52-week high of ¥22.98 and 5% above the low of ¥14.73 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥15.50, calculated fair value ¥8.45 (−45%), Quality Score 55/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301151 calculated?
We run Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. through 23 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥8.45 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥15.50. Our model-based fair value is ¥8.45, about 45% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. is 3.0B CNY (≈ $453M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. is 3.69 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. are ¥0.3300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 47.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. is 3.2% (payout 152%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
The net margin of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. is 6.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
The operating margin of Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
Revenue at Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. is growing +27.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. are growing +88.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (301151) hold?
Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co. Ltd. holds more cash than debt, 695M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026