Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co (301163) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.0B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥9.72 to ¥8.80 (−9.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 63% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥11.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
52‑month range ¥12.74 – ¥66.51 · fair‑value band ¥6.39 – ¥11.21 · the ¥23.55 price screens above the ¥8.80 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co (301163) currently trades at ¥23.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.80, implying the stock looks roughly 62.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co generated revenue of 839M CNY at a net margin of 4.9%. Revenue declined 9.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. Net debt stands at 67.5M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥6.39 (bear case) to ¥11.21 (bull case); at ¥23.55, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -72% fair-value upside, at -63%, 301163 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥9.54) versus Earnings-Based (¥3.70). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of casting products in China. The company offers iron and aluminum casting products, including special parts for wind power equipment, electric power equipment, medical equipment, injection molding machines, and pumps and valves.
Full company description
Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of casting products in China. The company offers iron and aluminum casting products, including special parts for wind power equipment, electric power equipment, medical equipment, injection molding machines, and pumps and valves. Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Nantong, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co reported revenue of ¥857M in FY2025 versus ¥756M in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥40.8M in FY2025, compounding −11.2%/yr from FY2021.
301163 screens 63% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →
Peer Group
Metal Fabrication · 244 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS | $577.10 | $103.31 | -82% |
| ATI Inc ATI | $186.17 | $36.51 | -80% |
| Mueller Industries, Inc MLI | $59.13 | $60.24 | +2% |
| China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039 | ¥7.45 | ¥1.15 | -85% |
| JL Mag Rare-Earth Co 300748 | ¥31.69 | ¥8.74 | -72% |
| Western Superconducting Technologies Co 688122 | ¥56.73 | ¥24.43 | -57% |
| Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co 300953 | ¥131.65 | ¥44.23 | -66% |
| Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co 603308 | ¥48.52 | ¥8.07 | -83% |
| Baoding Technology Co 002552 | ¥43.95 | ¥5.44 | -88% |
| Xiamen Voke Mold & Plastic Engineering Co 301196 | ¥110.08 | ¥42.71 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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