Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. ¥8.80, price ¥23.44, upside -62.5%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
53‑month range ¥12.74 – ¥66.51 · fair‑value band ¥6.39 – ¥11.21 · the ¥23.44 price screens above the ¥8.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of casting products in China. The company offers iron and aluminum casting products, including special parts for wind power equipment, electric power equipment, medical equipment, injection molding machines, and pumps and valves.
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Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of casting products in China. The company offers iron and aluminum casting products, including special parts for wind power equipment, electric power equipment, medical equipment, injection molding machines, and pumps and valves. Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Nantong, China.
Stock analysis
Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163) currently trades at ¥23.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.80, implying the stock looks roughly 166.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥9.54 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the ¥23.44 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.70, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥6.39 (bear) to ¥11.21 (bull), the price of ¥23.44 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. reported revenue of 857M CNY in FY2025 versus 756M CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 40.8M CNY in FY2025, compounding −11.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.9B CNY (≈ $285M) · P/E ratio 46.0 · P/S ratio 2.19 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.5100 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −62%, 301163 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥6.39Fair Value ¥8.80Bull ¥11.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2827 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+31.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 5%
Compare Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 263 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−62% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)46.0× · Pricier than median
P/B1.65× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.24× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA17.7× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 35
PAST (return on equity)15· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)11· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301163
Frequently asked questions
Is Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.80 versus a price of ¥23.44, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301163?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. is ¥8.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥23.44.
What is the quality score of 301163?
Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥6.39, optimistic scenario ¥11.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.80, about −62% upside versus a price of ¥23.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥6.39, optimistic scenario ¥11.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 839M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. pay a dividend?
Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. it is ¥8.80 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥23.44. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 301163 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥23.44, fair value ¥8.80, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301163?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥23.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.80). For Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. the two are ¥14.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. worth?
The market values Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. at about 1.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥23.44; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301163?
Our models span a range for Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥6.39, base ¥8.80, optimistic ¥11.21 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥23.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301163?
Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 46.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥8.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 17.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.7%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301163 from its 52-week high?
Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. trades at ¥23.44, about 30% below its 52-week high of ¥33.50 and 20% above the low of ¥19.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Carpenter Technology Corporation, ATI Inc, Mueller Industries, Inc, Aurubis AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥23.44, calculated fair value ¥8.80 (−62%), Quality Score 50/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301163 calculated?
We run Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥8.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥23.44. Our model-based fair value is ¥8.80, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥11.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
The market capitalisation of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. is 1.9B CNY (≈ $285M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. is 2.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
Earnings per share at Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. are ¥0.5100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 46.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
The dividend yield of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. is 0.5% (payout 24.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
The net margin of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. is 4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
The operating margin of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
Revenue at Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. is growing −9.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163)?
Earnings per share at Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. are growing +16.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163) generate?
The free cash flow of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. is −155M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. (301163) carry?
The net debt of Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.Ltd. is 67.5M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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