Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. ¥13.83, price ¥23.88, upside -42.1%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
55‑month range ¥19.66 – ¥74.08 · fair‑value band ¥13.54 – ¥13.83 · the ¥23.88 price screens above the ¥13.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of erythritol and compound sugar products in China. Its products are used in table sugar, flavored sugar, and beverages; candy and chocolate food; baked food; health food; medical supplies; cosmetic products; chemical products; and other applications.
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Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of erythritol and compound sugar products in China. Its products are used in table sugar, flavored sugar, and beverages; candy and chocolate food; baked food; health food; medical supplies; cosmetic products; chemical products; and other applications. The company exports its products to Europe, the United States, East Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and Africa. Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2007 and is based in Binzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206) currently trades at ¥23.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.83, implying the stock looks roughly 72.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥19.35 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the ¥23.88 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥2.39, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥13.54 (bear) to ¥13.83 (bull), the price of ¥23.88 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. reported revenue of 650M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −21.1%/yr. Reported net income was 91.4M CNY in FY2025, compounding −35.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.8B CNY (≈ $721M) · P/E ratio 50.8 · P/S ratio 7.15 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4700 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 14.1% · Return on equity 2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −42%, 301206 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥13.54Fair Value ¥13.83Bull ¥13.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.13/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +32.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−17.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22% vs 30%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 5%
Compare Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−42% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth50% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.2% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)50.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.14× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)6.67× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA38.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)8· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)84· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥13.83 versus a price of ¥23.88, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301206?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is ¥13.83 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥23.88.
What is the quality score of 301206?
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥13.83 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥13.54, optimistic scenario ¥13.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥13.83, about −42% upside versus a price of ¥23.88 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥13.54, optimistic scenario ¥13.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 724M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. pay a dividend?
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.19% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. it is ¥13.83 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥23.88. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 301206 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥23.88, fair value ¥13.83, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301206?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥23.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥13.83). For Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. the two are ¥10.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. worth?
The market values Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. at about 4.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥23.88; our models calculate a fair value of ¥13.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301206?
Our models span a range for Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥13.54, base ¥13.83, optimistic ¥13.83 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥23.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301206?
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥13.83 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 6.7, EV/EBITDA 38.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301206 from its 52-week high?
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. trades at ¥23.88, about 18% below its 52-week high of ¥29.15 and 10% above the low of ¥21.77 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥13.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥23.88, calculated fair value ¥13.83 (−42%), Quality Score 51/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301206 calculated?
We run Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥13.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥23.88. Our model-based fair value is ¥13.83, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥13.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (¥13.54 to ¥13.83), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
The market capitalisation of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is 4.8B CNY (≈ $721M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is 7.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. are ¥0.4700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 50.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
The dividend yield of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is 4.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
The net margin of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is 14.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
The operating margin of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
Revenue at Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is growing +49.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. are growing +8.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206) generate?
The free cash flow of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is −176M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206) hold?
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. holds more cash than debt, 160M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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