Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co (301206) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 4.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Share price +0.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 39% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥14.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The models converge in a tight band (¥13.54 to ¥14.34), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
54‑month range ¥20.07 – ¥75.63 · fair‑value band ¥13.54 – ¥14.34 · the ¥23.44 price screens above the ¥14.34 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co (301206) currently trades at ¥23.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.34, implying the stock looks roughly 38.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co generated revenue of 724M CNY at a net margin of 12.8%. Revenue grew 49.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 160M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥13.54 (bear case) to ¥14.34 (bull case); at ¥23.44, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -39%, 301206 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥19.35) versus Economic Profit (¥2.39). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of erythritol and compound sugar products in China. Its products are used in table sugar, flavored sugar, and beverages; candy and chocolate food; baked food; health food; medical supplies; cosmetic products; chemical products; and other applications.
Full company description
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of erythritol and compound sugar products in China. Its products are used in table sugar, flavored sugar, and beverages; candy and chocolate food; baked food; health food; medical supplies; cosmetic products; chemical products; and other applications. The company exports its products to Europe, the United States, East Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and Africa. Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2007 and is based in Binzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co reported revenue of ¥650M in FY2025 versus ¥1.7B in FY2021, a compound −21.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥91.4M in FY2025, compounding −35.7%/yr from FY2021.
301206 screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG →
Peer Group
Confectioners · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 96,500 | CHF 9,874 | -90% |
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $61.00 | $27.68 | -55% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $170.27 | $91.25 | -46% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,100 | CHF 711.91 | -35% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 127,100 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +60% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.50 | $21.81 | -45% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥18.81 | ¥9.83 | -48% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 48.88 | kr 59.12 | +21% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹586.20 | ₹304.54 | -48% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,320 IDR | 1,286 IDR | -3% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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