Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. stock ¥13.52, price ¥22.28, that is 39.3% below the price, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range ¥19.66 – ¥74.08 · fair‑value band ¥13.27 – ¥14.18 · the ¥22.28 price screens above the ¥13.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of erythritol and compound sugar products in China.
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Its products are used in table sugar, flavored sugar, and beverages; candy and chocolate food; baked food; health food; medical supplies; cosmetic products; chemical products; and other applications.
The company exports its products to Europe, the United States, East Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and Africa. Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2007 and is based in Binzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206) currently trades at ¥22.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.52, 39% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥23.88 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥22.28 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ¥6.30, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥13.27 (bear) to ¥14.18 (bull), the price of ¥22.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. reported revenue of 650M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −21.1%/yr. Reported net income was 91.4M CNY in FY2025, compounding −35.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.5B CNY (≈ $676M) Small · P/E ratio 57.1 · P/S ratio 5.79 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.3900 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 10.0% · Return on equity 1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −39%, 301206 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥13.27Fair Value ¥13.52Bull¥14.18
Price ¥22.28 · Downside -39.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.8/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +32.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−19.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21.7% vs 29.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 5%
Compare Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−39.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Return on assets2.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)10.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−3.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.2% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)57.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.06× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)5.79× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA36.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)57· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)7· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)45· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥13.52 versus a price of ¥22.28, about 39% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301206?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is ¥13.52 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥22.28.
What is the quality score of 301206?
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥13.52 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥13.27, optimistic scenario ¥14.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥13.52, about 39% lower versus a price of ¥22.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥13.27, optimistic scenario ¥14.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 778M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. pay a dividend?
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 2.24% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. pays a dividend of ¥0.5 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.2%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. The payout ratio is 128% of earnings. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What is the intrinsic value of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. it is ¥13.52 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥22.28. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 301206 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥22.28, fair value ¥13.52, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301206?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥22.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥13.52). For Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. the two are ¥8.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. worth?
The market values Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. at about 4.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥22.28; our models calculate a fair value of ¥13.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301206?
Our models span a range for Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥13.27, base ¥13.52, optimistic ¥14.18 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥22.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301206?
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 57.1 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥13.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 5.8, EV/EBITDA 36.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 1.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301206 from its 52-week high?
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. trades at ¥22.28, about 24% below its 52-week high of ¥29.15 and 3% above the low of ¥21.60 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥13.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥22.28, calculated fair value ¥13.52 (−39%), Quality Score 47/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301206 calculated?
We run Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥13.52 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥22.28. Our model-based fair value is ¥13.52, about 39% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥14.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (47/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band (¥13.27 to ¥14.18), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
The market capitalisation of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is 4.5B CNY (≈ $676M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is 5.79 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. are ¥0.3900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 57.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
The dividend yield of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is 2.2% (payout 128%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
The net margin of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is 10.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
The operating margin of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is −3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
Revenue at Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is growing +11.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. are growing −66.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206) generate?
The free cash flow of Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. is −176M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. (301206) hold?
Shandong Sanyuan Biotechnology Co.Ltd. holds more cash than debt, 160M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026