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Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co (301500) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 15.9B CNY

GF Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co 301500 · SHE
Price¥24.31
Fair Value¥10.73
Upside-55.9%
Quality42/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 4.2% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
0.19% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
Narrow moat 38/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥6.81 – ¥13.42 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 32 days ago

Share price −12.7% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 56% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥13.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥6.81 to ¥13.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

¥31.62 ¥10.33 Fair Value ¥10.73 Sep 2023 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

35‑month range ¥10.33 – ¥31.62 · fair‑value band ¥6.81 – ¥13.42 · the ¥24.31 price screens above the ¥10.73 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co (301500) currently trades at ¥24.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.73, implying the stock looks roughly 55.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co generated revenue of 16.3B CNY at a net margin of 4.2%. Revenue grew 49.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.3%. Net debt stands at 4.4B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥6.81 (bear case) to ¥13.42 (bull case); at ¥24.31, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -56%, 301500 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥6.70 ¥6.91 ¥7.02 76
ROIC Compounder ¥7.39 ¥9.35 ¥12.69 72
Growth-Adj P/E ¥9.80 ¥14.01 ¥18.21 68
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥4.03 ¥10.83 ¥25.09 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥3.48 ¥24.24 ¥34.02 54
Lynch FV ¥7.17 ¥10.24 ¥13.32 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥7.17 ¥10.24 ¥13.32 46
EPV ¥7.39 ¥8.84 ¥10.11 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥8.05 ¥10.73 ¥13.42 63
P/S Multiple ¥6.52 ¥8.69 ¥10.86 58
P/B Multiple ¥6.52 ¥8.69 ¥10.86 55
EV/EBIT ¥13.43 ¥18.33 ¥23.24 53
EV/EBITDA ¥18.71 ¥25.38 ¥32.04 54
EV/Revenue ¥9.21 ¥13.71 ¥18.22 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.25 ¥5.69 ¥8.49 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥6.70 ¥6.91 ¥7.02 76
ROIC Compounder ¥7.39 ¥9.35 ¥12.69 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥9.80 ¥14.01 ¥18.21 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥14.01) versus Asset-Based (¥5.69). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 16.3B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +49.4%
Net margin 4.2%
Return on equity 13.3%
Free cash flow −582M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 23.0
More key figures
Operating margin 13.4%
EPS (TTM) ¥1.23
Dividend yield 0.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +8,019%
Net debt 4.4B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 41
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 5
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 84
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 74
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 63
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the disposal of non-ferrous metal hazardous waste and recycling of renewable resources activities in China. The company's products comprise of cathode copper, nickel sulfate, copper matte, palladium powder, and tin, gold, zinc, and silver ingots.

Full company description

Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the disposal of non-ferrous metal hazardous waste and recycling of renewable resources activities in China. The company's products comprise of cathode copper, nickel sulfate, copper matte, palladium powder, and tin, gold, zinc, and silver ingots. Feinan Resources Recycling Co., Ltd. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Foshan, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co reported revenue of ¥14.8B in FY2025 versus ¥7.9B in FY2021, a compound +17.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥287M in FY2025, compounding −20.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
14.8B CNY
Latest YoY
+18.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+19.2%
Revenue +17.1%/yr
FY21 ¥7.9B
FY22 ¥8.8B
FY23 ¥8.7B
FY24 ¥12.6B
FY25 ¥14.8B
Net income −20.5%/yr
FY21 ¥719M
FY22 ¥212M
FY23 ¥180M
FY24 ¥128M
FY25 ¥287M

301500 screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Waste Management, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301500

Peer Group

Waste Management · 169 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside −56% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Revenue growth 49% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.33× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.33× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.97× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.2× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 10
FUTURE 100 · sector 21
PAST 53 · sector 24
HEALTH 84 · sector 82
DIVIDEND 4 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Waste Management, Inc WM $233.33 $128.02 -45%
Republic Services, Inc RSG $219.20 $122.01 -44%
Waste Connections, Inc WCN C$242.43 C$78.67 -68%
Veolia Environnement SA VIE €37.51 €24.50 -35%
Clean Harbors, Inc CLH $303.64 $155.37 -49%
GFL Environmental Inc GFL C$55.40 C$94.12 +70%
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC €12.20 €7.30 -40%
GEM Co 002340 ¥6.32 ¥5.27 -17%
Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 ¥16.18 ¥20.91 +29%
Cleanaway Waste Management Limited CWY A$2.34 A$1.18 -50%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co (301500) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥10.73 versus a price of ¥24.31, about −56% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301500?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co is ¥10.73 (as of Jul 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥24.31.
What is the quality score of 301500?
Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co (301500)?
Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 16.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 301500?
The net profit margin of Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co is about 4.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co pay a dividend?
Guangdong Feinan Resources Recycling Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.19% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 9, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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