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Lonking Holdings (3339) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$11.5B

LH Lonking Holdings 3339 · HK
PriceHK$3.05
Fair ValueHK$3.69
Upside+21.0%
Quality71/100
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Weak Growth
Solidly profitable · 11.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
6.92% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (13/15)
Moderate moat 52/100
Evidence: High Range HK$2.77 – HK$4.61 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from HK$5.97 to HK$3.69 (−38.2%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price +8.5% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 21% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Our model range runs from HK$2.77 (bear) to HK$4.61 (bull), base HK$3.69. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 71/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$3.28 HK$0.8106 Fair Value HK$3.69 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.8106 – HK$3.28 · fair‑value band HK$2.77 – HK$4.61 · the HK$3.05 price screens below the HK$3.69 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

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Analysis

Lonking Holdings (3339) currently trades at HK$3.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.69, implying the stock looks roughly 21.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Lonking Holdings generated revenue of HK$11.2B at a net margin of 11.6%. Revenue grew 15.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$2.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$2.77 (bear case) to HK$4.61 (bull case); at HK$3.05, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 21%, 3339 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$4.28 HK$5.71 HK$7.72 80
Residual Income HK$2.44 HK$2.82 HK$5.06 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$3.73 HK$5.15 HK$6.74 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$4.21 HK$5.80 HK$8.15 38
Owner Earnings HK$4.88 HK$6.81 HK$9.67 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$3.73 HK$5.13 HK$6.87 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.03 HK$5.68 HK$7.55 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$4.92 HK$7.30 HK$9.75 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$3.80 HK$5.10 HK$6.77 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.07 HK$5.48 HK$7.28 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$4.63 HK$6.60 HK$8.92 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.07 HK$5.75 HK$7.55 54
Lynch FV HK$1.15 HK$1.65 HK$2.14 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.15 HK$1.65 HK$2.14 46
EPV HK$3.22 HK$3.57 HK$3.88 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.06 HK$2.20 HK$3.49 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.06 HK$1.67 HK$2.31 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$4.79 HK$6.38 HK$7.98 63
P/S Multiple HK$3.87 HK$5.17 HK$6.46 58
P/B Multiple HK$3.87 HK$5.17 HK$6.46 55
EV/EBIT HK$4.61 HK$5.79 HK$6.97 53
EV/EBITDA HK$4.31 HK$5.39 HK$6.47 54
EV/Revenue HK$3.60 HK$4.68 HK$5.76 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.34 HK$1.80 HK$2.68 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$4.28 HK$5.71 HK$7.72 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$3.73 HK$5.15 HK$6.74 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.44 HK$2.82 HK$5.06 76
ROIC Compounder HK$3.31 HK$3.88 HK$4.56 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$3.81 HK$5.44 HK$7.08 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$5.68) versus Earnings-Based (HK$1.65). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$11.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) +15.8%
Net margin 11.6%
Return on equity 11.7%
Free cash flow HK$1.2B FY2025
P/E ratio 7.7
More key figures
Operating margin 11.9%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.1500
Dividend yield 6.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +19.4%
Net cash HK$2.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 98
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 53
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Lonking Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes wheel loaders, road rollers, excavators, forklifts, and other construction machinery in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through three segments: Sale of Construction Machinery, Finance Lease of Construction Machinery, and Financial Investment.

Full company description

Lonking Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes wheel loaders, road rollers, excavators, forklifts, and other construction machinery in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through three segments: Sale of Construction Machinery, Finance Lease of Construction Machinery, and Financial Investment. The company is also involved in the manufacture and distribution of axles and gear boxes, as well as distribution of oil products. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Lonking Holdings reported revenue of HK$11.2B in FY2025 versus HK$13.7B in FY2021, a compound −4.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.3B in FY2025, compounding +0.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$11.2B
Latest YoY
+9.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.7%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.3%
Revenue −4.9%/yr
FY21 HK$13.7B
FY22 HK$11.2B
FY23 HK$10.5B
FY24 HK$10.2B
FY25 HK$11.2B
Net income +0.5%/yr
FY21 HK$1.3B
FY22 HK$400M
FY23 HK$645M
FY24 HK$1.0B
FY25 HK$1.3B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +12.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.0 pp

of which total revenue +7.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin −1.5 pp
Tax rate +1.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +5.8 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Lonking Holdings · Fair Value
HK$3.69 +21%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lonking Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3339

Peer Group

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +21% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.9% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.00× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.03× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 4.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 1.43× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 61 · sector 22
FUTURE 79 · sector 30
PAST 47 · sector 32
HEALTH 100 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 40

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).

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Epiroc AB EPIA kr 251.90 kr 144.14 -43%
Exor N.V EXO €69.40 €219.41 +216%
Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 ¥18.65 ¥20.84 +12%
XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 ¥8.39 ¥11.79 +41%
Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 HK$41.00 HK$53.51 +31%
Yutong Bus Co 600066 ¥32.29 ¥42.00 +30%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Lonking Holdings (3339) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.69 versus a price of HK$3.05, about +21% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3339?
Our model-based fair value for Lonking Holdings is HK$3.69 (as of Aug 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$3.05.
What is the quality score of 3339?
Lonking Holdings has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Lonking Holdings (3339)?
Lonking Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$11.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3339?
The net profit margin of Lonking Holdings is about 11.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Lonking Holdings pay a dividend?
Lonking Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.92% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 6, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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