Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lonking Holdings Ltd stock HK$3.38, price HK$2.86, upside +18.3%, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.8106 – HK$3.56 · fair‑value band HK$2.58 – HK$4.47 · the HK$2.86 price screens below the HK$3.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Lonking Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes wheel loaders, road rollers, excavators, forklifts, and other construction machinery in Mainland China and internationally.
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It operates through three segments: Sale of Construction Machinery, Finance Lease of Construction Machinery, and Financial Investment. The company is also involved in the manufacture and distribution of axles and gear boxes, as well as distribution of oil products.
The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339) currently trades at HK$2.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.38, implying the stock looks roughly 15% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$6.39 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$2.86 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$1.52, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.58 (bear) to HK$4.47 (bull), the price of HK$2.86 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Lonking Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 11.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 13.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.9%/yr. Reported net income was 1.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +0.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$12.2B (≈ $1.6B) Small · P/E ratio 7.6 · P/S ratio 0.88 · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin 11.6% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 10.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 18%, 3339 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$2.58Fair Value HK$3.38BullHK$4.47
Price HK$2.86 · Upside +18.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFHK$4.04HK$5.03HK$6.2582
Growth DCFHK$4.05HK$4.93HK$5.9480
Owner EarningsHK$4.26HK$5.33HK$6.6578
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFHK$4.04HK$5.03HK$6.2582
Owner EarningsHK$4.26HK$5.33HK$6.6578
5Y Revenue ExitHK$4.04HK$5.46HK$7.2373
5Y EBITDA ExitHK$4.35HK$6.03HK$7.9376
5Y P/E ExitHK$5.25HK$7.68HK$10.1671
10Y Revenue ExitHK$3.94HK$5.11HK$6.5968
10Y EBITDA ExitHK$4.18HK$5.44HK$7.0470
10Y P/E ExitHK$4.67HK$6.42HK$8.4865
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddHK$2.43HK$6.75HK$8.8765
Lynch FVHK$1.35HK$1.93HK$2.5161
PEG = 1.0HK$1.35HK$1.93HK$2.5157
EPVHK$3.19HK$3.43HK$3.6274
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMHK$0.9600HK$1.64HK$2.1568
DDM Multi-StageHK$0.9600HK$1.40HK$1.7667
Multiples
P/E MultipleHK$5.62HK$7.49HK$9.3763
P/S MultipleHK$4.55HK$6.07HK$7.5858
P/B MultipleHK$2.11HK$2.81HK$3.5255
EV/EBITHK$4.83HK$6.21HK$7.5966
EV/EBITDAHK$4.47HK$5.74HK$7.0067
EV/RevenueHK$3.64HK$4.91HK$6.1854
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)HK$1.39HK$2.11HK$2.6355
Growth DCF
Growth DCFHK$4.05HK$4.93HK$5.9480
Rev-Margin DCFHK$4.04HK$5.49HK$7.1174
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeHK$2.63HK$2.87HK$3.3576
ROIC CompounderHK$3.20HK$3.52HK$3.8672
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EHK$4.48HK$6.39HK$8.3167
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: −4.6% / 12.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 11%
2025 sits 102% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −23.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 146 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+17.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.9% · Above median
Return on assets7.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)10.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)7.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)7.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.92× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.86× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)8.7× · Cheaper than median
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Is Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.38 versus a price of HK$2.86, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3339?
Our model-based fair value for Lonking Holdings Ltd is HK$3.38 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.86.
What is the quality score of 3339?
Lonking Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.38 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.58, optimistic scenario HK$4.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lonking Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.38, about +18% upside versus a price of HK$2.86 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.58, optimistic scenario HK$4.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
Lonking Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Lonking Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Lonking Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 7.01% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Lonking Holdings Ltd pays a dividend of HK$0.2 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2014. The payout ratio is 56.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.66 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lonking Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -21.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.7 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3339 use?
Our models discount Lonking Holdings Ltd at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.14, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lonking Holdings Ltd that is -21.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lonking Holdings Ltd grew -2.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -21.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lonking Holdings Ltd (-21.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.66 %: that much free cash flow Lonking Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lonking Holdings Ltd it is HK$3.38 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of HK$2.86. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Lonking Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, 3339 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.86, fair value HK$3.38, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3339?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.38). For Lonking Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.5211 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lonking Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Lonking Holdings Ltd at about HK$12.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.86; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3339?
Our models span a range for Lonking Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.58, base HK$3.38, optimistic HK$4.47 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price HK$2.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3339?
Lonking Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$3.38 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 7.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 3.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 3339?
The PEG ratio of Lonking Holdings Ltd is 1.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lonking Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 12.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3339 from its 52-week high?
Lonking Holdings Ltd trades at HK$2.86, about 20% below its 52-week high of HK$3.56 and 20% above the low of HK$2.38 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lonking Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lonking Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price HK$2.86, calculated fair value HK$3.38 (+18%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3339 calculated?
We run Lonking Holdings Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$3.38 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Lonking Holdings Ltd currently trades 15% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was HK$2.86. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.38, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lonking Holdings Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339) come from?
Earnings per share at Lonking Holdings Ltd grew +12.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin −1.5 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lonking Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
The market capitalisation of Lonking Holdings Ltd is HK$12.2B (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lonking Holdings Ltd is 0.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
The dividend yield of Lonking Holdings Ltd is 7.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
The net margin of Lonking Holdings Ltd is 11.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lonking Holdings Ltd is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lonking Holdings Ltd is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
The operating margin of Lonking Holdings Ltd is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
Revenue at Lonking Holdings Ltd is growing +19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339)?
Earnings per share at Lonking Holdings Ltd are growing +22.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Lonking Holdings Ltd (3339) hold?
Lonking Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 2.5B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 9, 2026