GeoVision Inc (3356) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of GeoVision Inc TWD 35.58, price TWD 65.20, upside -45.4%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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GeoVision Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in conducting research, development, sales, and after-sales service of remote digital monitoring systems internationally.
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GeoVision Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in conducting research, development, sales, and after-sales service of remote digital monitoring systems internationally. The company offers IP cameras; HD analog, standalone NVR, and HD DVR products; access control products, such as software, IP control panels and kits, controllers, readers, and accessories; license plate recognition products; video management, including VMS, NVR, recording server, edge recording manager, large scale monitoring, integration, backup management, video analytics, and mobile server; AI and cloud solutions; and surveillance systems. It also provides standalone and decoder products; PoE solutions; and IP speakers and IO boxes. The company serves the retail, commercial, government, transportation, hospitals, gaming, and residence industries through distributors, system integrators, and installers. GeoVision Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
GeoVision Inc (3356) currently trades at 65.20 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 35.58 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 83.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 151.92 TWD per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the 65.20 TWD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 11.16 TWD, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 33.23 TWD (bear) to 39.03 TWD (bull), the price of 65.20 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
GeoVision Inc reported revenue of 1.0B TWD in FY2025 versus 1.2B TWD in FY2021, a compound −4.9%/yr. Reported net income was 496M TWD in FY2025, compounding +29.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.2B TWD (≈ $164M) · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 5.12 · EPS (TTM) 6.20 TWD · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin 48.7% · Return on equity 33.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −45%, 3356 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 33.23 TWDFair Value 35.58 TWDBull 39.03 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.98 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.0% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+35.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26% vs 4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
2025 sits 95% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 115 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GeoVision Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3356
Frequently asked questions
Is GeoVision Inc (3356) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 35.58 TWD versus a price of 65.20 TWD, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3356?
Our model-based fair value for GeoVision Inc is 35.58 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 65.20 TWD.
What is the quality score of 3356?
GeoVision Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GeoVision Inc (3356)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 35.58 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 33.23 TWD, optimistic scenario 39.03 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GeoVision Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 35.58 TWD, about −45% upside versus a price of 65.20 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 33.23 TWD, optimistic scenario 39.03 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GeoVision Inc (3356)?
GeoVision Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does GeoVision Inc pay a dividend?
GeoVision Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into GeoVision Inc (3356)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, GeoVision Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +34.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3356 use?
Our models discount GeoVision Inc at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For GeoVision Inc that is +34.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has GeoVision Inc (3356) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at GeoVision Inc grew -2.5 % a year. The price currently implies +34.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of GeoVision Inc (3356) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into GeoVision Inc (+34.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of GeoVision Inc (3356)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.18 %: that much free cash flow GeoVision Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of GeoVision Inc (3356)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GeoVision Inc it is 35.58 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 65.20 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GeoVision Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 3356 trades above its calculated fair value: price 65.20 TWD, fair value 35.58 TWD, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3356?
No. The price is what the market pays today (65.20 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (35.58 TWD). For GeoVision Inc the two are 29.62 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GeoVision Inc worth?
The market values GeoVision Inc at about 5.2B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 65.20 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 35.58 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3356?
Our models span a range for GeoVision Inc: cautious scenario 33.23 TWD, base 35.58 TWD, optimistic 39.03 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 65.20 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3356?
GeoVision Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 35.58 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 2.1, P/S 5.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 3356?
The PEG ratio of GeoVision Inc is 0.78 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of GeoVision Inc (3356)?
Balance-sheet figures for GeoVision Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 33.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3356 from its 52-week high?
GeoVision Inc trades at 65.20 TWD, about 7% below its 52-week high of 69.79 TWD and 52% above the low of 42.95 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 35.58 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GeoVision Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GeoVision Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 65.20 TWD, calculated fair value 35.58 TWD (−45%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3356 calculated?
We run GeoVision Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 35.58 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. GeoVision Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GeoVision Inc (3356)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 65.20 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 35.58 TWD, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GeoVision Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (39.03 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of GeoVision Inc (3356) come from?
Earnings per share at GeoVision Inc grew +3.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.0 %, EBIT margin −8.7 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +20.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of GeoVision Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of GeoVision Inc (3356)?
The market capitalisation of GeoVision Inc is 5.2B TWD (≈ $164M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GeoVision Inc (3356)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GeoVision Inc is 5.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GeoVision Inc (3356)?
Earnings per share at GeoVision Inc are 6.20 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of GeoVision Inc (3356)?
The dividend yield of GeoVision Inc is 5.4% (payout 56.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of GeoVision Inc (3356)?
The net margin of GeoVision Inc is 48.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GeoVision Inc (3356)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GeoVision Inc is 33.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GeoVision Inc (3356)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GeoVision Inc is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GeoVision Inc (3356)?
The operating margin of GeoVision Inc is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GeoVision Inc (3356)?
Revenue at GeoVision Inc is growing +8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GeoVision Inc (3356)?
Earnings per share at GeoVision Inc are growing +40.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does GeoVision Inc (3356) hold?
GeoVision Inc holds more cash than debt, 551M TWD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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