Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (3389) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$1.2B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.4000 to HK$0.3900 (−2.5%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −7.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 50% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.3700). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- The models converge in a tight band (HK$0.3700 to HK$0.4200), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0910 – HK$0.3350 · fair‑value band HK$0.3700 – HK$0.4200 · the HK$0.2600 price screens below the HK$0.3900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Hengdeli Holdings Ltd (3389) currently trades at HK$0.2600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3900, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hengdeli Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$649M at a net margin of -4.2%. Revenue declined 27.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.3700 (bear case) to HK$0.4200 (bull case); at HK$0.2600, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 130% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 50%, 3389 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$0.4900) versus DCF Models (HK$0.3000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hengdeli Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing and sale of accessories for watches, jewellery, cosmetics, and mobile phones in the Mainland China and Hong Kong.
Full company description
Hengdeli Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing and sale of accessories for watches, jewellery, cosmetics, and mobile phones in the Mainland China and Hong Kong. The company is involved in designing and producing packaging products, commercial space; providing decoration services, as well as international commodity trading of iron ore, thermal coal, and coking coal. It also offers consuming service and supply chain services. Hengdeli Holdings Limited was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hengdeli Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$649M in FY2025 versus HK$878M in FY2021, a compound −7.3%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$26.9M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Conglomerates · 384 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITOCHU Corporation ITOCHU19 | 7.20 THB | 14.40 THB | +100% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 553,000 KRW | 615,077 KRW | +11% |
| PT Astra International Tbk, ASII | 4,860 IDR | 9,720 IDR | +100% |
| Koç Holding KCHOL | 205.80 TRY | 182.26 TRY | -11% |
| SRF Limited SRF | ₹2,585 | ₹859.71 | -67% |
| Empresas Copec S.A COPEC | 6,030 CLP | 10,809 CLP | +79% |
| Posco International Corporation 047050 | 54,300 KRW | 71,119 KRW | +31% |
| Tube Investments of India Limited TIINDIA | ₹2,839 | ₹723.80 | -75% |
| Doosan Corporation 000155 | 436,000 KRW | 93,413 KRW | -79% |
| Thermax Limited THERMAX | ₹4,002 | ₹1,343 | -66% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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