China Success Finance Group (3623) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$309M
Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026
From 5 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +36.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 79% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1500). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4500 – HK$1.53 · fair‑value band HK$0.1300 – HK$0.1500 · the HK$0.6800 price screens above the HK$0.1400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
Analysis
China Success Finance Group (3623) currently trades at HK$0.6800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1400, implying the stock looks roughly 79.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Success Finance Group generated revenue of HK$44.7M at a net margin of -54.8%. Revenue grew 200.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -12.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$90.8M. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1300 (bear case) to HK$0.1500 (bull case); at HK$0.6800, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at -79%, 3623 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 5 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$0.3400) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.1200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Success Finance Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides financial and non-financial guarantee, financial leasing, factoring, and financial consulting and maintenance services in the People's Republic of China, South Africa, and Australia. It operates through Financial Services: Market Hog: and Energy Storage segments.
Full company description
China Success Finance Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides financial and non-financial guarantee, financial leasing, factoring, and financial consulting and maintenance services in the People's Republic of China, South Africa, and Australia. It operates through Financial Services: Market Hog: and Energy Storage segments. The company offers financial guarantees, such as corporate financial, individual credit, financial leasing equipment, trusteeship, joint bond, corporate bond issuance, non-financing, and performance guarantees, as well as letter of guarantee for construction, and financing/financial consultancy and financial technology services. It also provides asset management services, including investment and financing management, asset/debt restructuring, special asset acquisition, corporate financial management, and financial consultancy services; and invests in equity. In addition, the company offers fund management, such as private equity, fund operation, asset management, and investment advisory services; financial leasing services, such as direct, trusted, and joint leasing, as well as sale-leaseback and bank factoring; and investment and acquisition, overseas capital, supply chain finance, and micro credit services. Further, the company sells market hogs and trades in energy storage system. China Success Finance Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1996 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Success Finance Group reported revenue of HK$43.4M in FY2025 versus HK$109M in FY2021, a compound −20.5%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$23.8M in FY2025.
3623 screens 79% overvalued. Compare with ORIX Corporation →
Peer Group
Financial Conglomerates · 55 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORIX Corporation IX | $40.31 | $35.05 | -13% |
| Bajaj Finserv Ltd BAJAJFINSV | ₹2,065 | ₹682.29 | -67% |
| Yuanta Financial Holding 2885 | 66.70 TWD | 35.75 TWD | -46% |
| China Galaxy Securities Co 601881 | ¥12.94 | ¥18.92 | +46% |
| Guosen Securities Co 002736 | ¥10.34 | ¥17.96 | +74% |
| CNPC Capital Company 000617 | ¥6.80 | ¥5.78 | -15% |
| Aditya Birla Capital Limited ABCAPITAL | ₹399.25 | ₹176.15 | -56% |
| Freedom Holding FRHC | $152.69 | $32.75 | -79% |
| Voya Financial, Inc VOYA | $98.49 | $76.48 | -22% |
| Guangzhou Yuexiu Capital Holdings 000987 | ¥7.77 | ¥9.27 | +19% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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